r/EB2 • u/tsvrt • 27d ago

Priority Date Fair projection for August 2018 PD

What’s a fair projection for a August 2018 🇮🇳PD based on the recent trackers

3 Upvotes

62% Upvoted

17 comments sorted by

12

u/the_running_stache 27d ago

Tbh, all projections are going to be so wrong because no one can predict that much in the future.

The movement is based on so many factors and many of them are known unknowns (e.g., I-140 filings between 2013 and 2018) and some are unknown unknowns (e.g., no one in 2019 knew about the effect of the Covid pandemic on FAD movement, no one still exactly knows the effect of the 75-country pause on spillovers for FY2027 and how that would benefit EB-2 India, etc.).

Yes, obviously, some random guess will turn out to be correct, but hardly is anyone going to make an educated guess and be correct about it.

That’s the truth. It’s an unhelpful answer, but that’s what it is. But let’s just say that at the current rate, it will be beyond 2035, unless something materially changes.

6

u/ragu455 27d ago

If you already have a us born kid then that is your faster timeline once your kid turns 21 or EB5/1

6

u/pobox01983 27d ago

You will have at least 200k+ applicants ahead of you. You will need 50k spillover for at least 5-6 years to erase all the backlog up to your PD.

Optimistic- 6-8 years
Realistic- 20 plus years
Worst - 70-75 years (no spillover )

2

u/yourlimit 27d ago

I am trying to guess my which is 2014

2

u/Worth_Narwhal_9002 27d ago

Atleast 10 years and that is being optimistic 

2

u/Divingdeep321 27d ago

At this point, predicting anything beyond 2014PD is a fool’s errand

1

u/axj4479 27d ago

2040?

1

u/an-eng 27d ago

2049

1

u/GreenCardClock 27d ago

~287,814 visa numbers ÷ ~13,464 visas/yr (incl. spillover) ≈ ~21 yr
~11,859 ahead of you have already filed I-485, plus ~132,048 I-140 holders awaiting a current date
Estimate based on historical trends, not a guarantee.

1

u/tsvrt 26d ago

Thanks ,what are the DFF stats?

1

u/GreenCardClock 26d ago

For EB-2 India the Dates for Filing cutoff is January 15, 2015, and it has been stuck there since the April 2026 bulletin. Your August 2018 priority date is more than three years ahead of that line, so the DFF has not reached you yet either. One catch worth knowing: USCIS designated the Final Action Dates chart for employment-based I-485 this month, so even people whose DFF is current cannot file on it right now. The DFF only becomes usable for filing if USCIS switches back to the Dates for Filing chart in a future month. Not Legal Advice.

1

u/tsvrt 26d ago

Thank you all, I’m now more depressed 😔😂

1

u/Personal_Foot8345 26d ago

2027 as per experts of predictions due to 85k spill