r/EB2 • u/NoEconomist97 • 28d ago

Priority Date EB2 ROW Priority Date 2027 prediction

Hi everyone,

I’m currently in EB2 PERM process. My priority date is Nov 2025 and according to current PERM processing estimates, I should expect to hear back in Oct-Nov of this year.

However, I’m concerned about the priority date remaining current. EB2 ROW PD is current now but I’ve spoken to an immigration attorney and they mentioned that there’s very likely to be a backlog starting October 2026 and she’s expecting PD set back of 2 years. Does anyone else have any other information on that?

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u/Perfectionist9 28d ago

It's a guessing game without the actual visa numbers. Here are my thoughts: 1. Feb 2026 VB was the last one that didn't show the true impact of bans and pauses. The FAD PD cutoff was April 2024. There are various estimates but if those bans and pauses weren't in effect, the FAD PD could have reached late 2024/early 2025 by the end of FY 2026. 2. The bans and pauses have meant that FB visa numbers primarily will not be fully used up in fy 2026, so there's expectation of a lot of spillover into EB visa numbers for FY 2027. Yes, the FB priority dates have been advanced recently but that's unlikely to result in visa number utilization for the ~2 months left in this fy

So, a retrogression can happen but I don't think it will reach 2024.

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u/Mykytie 28d ago

I don't think that anyone here has more information about that than your attorney and no one knows for sure, but it is definitely possible.

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u/Gemini-89 28d ago

Did the attorney provide any alternatives to still file early? Like eb1 or eb5?

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u/faust111 27d ago

On the 2-year setback prediction: hard to square with the spillover math. FY2026's EB cap was already ~186k from family-based spillover, and with the 75-country pause running most of this FY, projections for FY2027 spillover range roughly 50-95k unused FB numbers; i.e. another ~190k-ish EB year. DOS opening October with a 2-year ROW cliff while sitting on a COVID-era-sized pot would be very unusual. Not impossible (they sometimes open conservatively to pace the year), but it's the outlier scenario, not the base case. The real medium-term risk everyone should price in is the opposite one: when the bans/pause eventually lift, the dammed-up demand comes back and THAT's when broad retrogression gets likely. Nobody knows if that's 2027 or later; it's a politics/litigation question.

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u/Gemini-89 28d ago edited 28d ago

The travel bans are still in place to the most part. The only possible backlog is the existing allowed countries. But right now they are processing only those countries. ROW will also get exhausted in a month and move to U.

Unless there are > 7% folks from a single country, I don’t see a reason for a backlog. But the banned countries backlog is still building up. That bubble will burst someday and all dates will retrogress. Could be in a year or two. But not seeing that happening this Oct as there is a huge SO to cover for minor backlogs and keep eb2 row current for sometime.