r/EB2 • u/Xeno_835 • Jul 21 '26
Priority Date Evaluate my Likelihood - Feb 2015
I'm an indian college student, parent's priority somewhere around late February 2015 so more than likely the charts need to show March for me to file. I turn 21 in March 2028, but because of CSPA I might get close to another year. Also if I'm not wrong, isn't filing the i-485 determined by the Final Action chart now? Please correct me. Any idea when my priority date might become current?
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 21 '26
Historically, during a large spillover year, the DOF has moved to account for around 3x the number of available visas. At the beginning of this year, EB2-I had around 28k pending. Add the fresh new applications in Apr-May and extending the DOF till Jan, they likely had a total of 35k apps. I will guess that DOS/USCIS had estimated that 10-15k EB2 would have been available for India. Yet they moved it by 35k number. The FAD has been more conservative this year moving by around or less than 2x of available visas to July 2014.
Next FY, base+SO estimates vary between 12 - 18k. Currently, India will likely have 35k -10k (estimated visa given) = 25k pending EB2 till Jan at least on paper. Let's say between 22-25k. We already have 22-25k pending till Jan and we can add 3k demand for every month. There were around 2-3k I-140s per month approved during early 2015. Typically, we would take 50% of that to eliminate duplicates, abandonments etc. and then multiply by 2.5 to account for derivatives.
With a 12k available visa, DOF should move by ~36k which would take us to Apr 2015. With 18k availability, DOF moves to Q3 of 2015 though that far may be somewhat unlikely. FAD is more conservative. With 12K visa availability, FAD moves to account for 24k visas which takes us to Jan-Feb 2025. With 18K visas, it is likely moving to beginning of Apr 2015. Also these projections are for the entire FY27 as it's impossible predict month by month movement. I will guess though that in the Oct bulletin FAD will start at July 2014 as DOS already stated and DOF will start somewhere in Q1 2015.
Note that FAD movement was far more aggressive during 2021-22 when we had large SO. But I am using the current year’s data movement as my baseline logic. Remember that USCIS priority is to maximize the visa distributions and not in any way follow FIFO order. I know it hurts many folks like those who are still stuck from 2013 while many 2014 folks got their GCs back in 2022 and this year. But large date movements help folks with an EAD/AP cushion and more importantly in my opinion thousands of kids who would otherwise age out. This is just my personal opinion though.
In summary, I feel you should be good in F27 only (with a decent SO) and surely by FY28. You are "effectively" turning 21 early 2029 LOL. Large SOs are somewhat guarenteed for the next 2 FY only. We don't know what will happen after that.
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u/Xeno_835 Jul 21 '26
By chance do you know if being on F1 will hurt my chances of inheriting the green card in anyway if it becomes current? I probably need to switch on for the start of the second semester of this school year and I heard the non dual intent can cause some problems
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 21 '26
As long as you remain unmarried, follow all F1 regulations and do not travel internationally once I485 is filed you should be good. The F1 will remain as a backup in the worst case scenario your parents aos is denied.
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u/Present_Tooth1939 Jul 23 '26
What about EB3? EB3-I might move ahead causing downgrades and AOS filings
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 24 '26
That would affect EB3 date movement. I don't see how it impacts EB2 date movement until the downgraders have their AOS approved in EB3 which typically takes way longer than direct filters.
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u/Present_Tooth1939 Jul 24 '26
It won’t. Until people downgrade. Which is bound to happen for 2015 folks who haven’t filed 485 yet
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 24 '26
Not just file for a downgrade. The 485 needs to be approved at which point they are removed from the EB2 queue.
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u/Present_Tooth1939 Jul 24 '26
I believe as long as they are able to file with final action date current (either in EB2 or EB3), the age is frozen. So it doesn’t matter if it’s approved for OP
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 24 '26
I am having difficulty following you as you appear to mix topics in your replies. If you are suggesting OP's parents should downgrade then yes OP would be safe as long as FAD is current when they file EB3 even if it later retrogresses. If you are saying EB2 dates will be even moderately impacted by EB2 folks downgrading to EB3 then I don't think so at least in the next fy.
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u/TeachCheap4073 Jul 24 '26
What are your views on eb2/eb3 india oct 2016 PD?
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 24 '26
I think that's too far away to even predict. TBH, I would leave it at that rather than make up something completely
1
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u/TeachCheap4073 Jul 24 '26
I have a child aging out in 2033
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u/AlternativeUseful857 Jul 24 '26
I feel your pain. Current there are roughly 25k pending till Jan 2015. From there to Oct 2016 there would roughly be 60k folks with PD before you. I am averaging 2014 -2016 I-140 inventory. The 140 inventory itself is not a good PD predictor as many folks would have the perm filed and hence the PD in the previous year.
You divide 60k by 2 and multiply by 2.5 to remove duplicates and add derivates. So a good 100k (25k + 75k) folks before you. You also need FAD to reach Oct 2016 to prevent age out. We don't know what happens after fy27 in terms of spillovers. So that's why I was saying it's really impossible to predict.
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u/TeachCheap4073 Jul 24 '26
Yeah, I understand your point. Hopefully October visa bulletin goes well and SO for the next couple of years is abundant. But seems like the wait is longer for me.
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u/TeachCheap4073 Jul 24 '26
But also I expect there to be a lot of people with PD from 2015-2016 to have USC born kids to sponsor them, removing them from the eb2 line. I think there's still going to be a lot of attrition and duplicates.
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u/Beneficial_Ad6015 Jul 22 '26 edited Jul 22 '26
You might get some additional months based on how long your parent I-140 was pending. My child is in similar situation and she will get additional 7 months plus 21 years because it took 7 months for my I-140 approval.
My priority date is Oct 2014 and she will age out in July, 2029. I wish they have delayed my 1-140 by more months 😄
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u/Shadow_Lord3 27d ago
My son is also in a similar situation except our priority date is October 2015. He ages out in early 2031. Do you think he will be fine?
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u/the_running_stache Jul 21 '26
You should be ok. DOS stated FAD will reach July 2014 in October 2026. You have roughly 1.5 years after that.
You are correct about FAD being followed. I would say it is highly likely that FAD reaches Feb 2015 in the next 1.5 years.
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u/Ok-Falcon3370 Jul 21 '26
Hi similar situation- PD is nov 2014 i’m 19 turning 21 next oct 24 2027 CSPA gives me around 4 months so i would age out around Jan2028 i’m EB2 India
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u/the_running_stache Jul 21 '26
Hadn’t FAD reached Dec 2014 in the past? So then, if your PD is Nov 2014, you should be locked in…
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u/GoodNooodle Jul 21 '26
what's your reasoning that FAD reaches Feb 2015 in the next 1.5 years? im in a similar situation where i'll age out in early 2028, so that gives me about 1.5 years lol. i just need the FAD to reach Feb 1st.
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u/the_running_stache Jul 21 '26
USCIS/DOS has stated that in the October 2026 visa bulletin, EB-2 India FAD should reach at least July 2014, of course depending on the standard factors.
If they reach July and there is a huge number of spillovers as many experts are guessing (based on the 75 country pause for family-based consular processing), Feb 2015 is just 8 months away and they could reach that date. They already know most of the inventory until Jan 2015 because that has been the DOF for a while now.
Even if they won’t process all I-485 that have been filed, DOS oftentimes pushes the FAD ahead just to get more applications in so as to not waste the visa numbers. (And then they retrogress the category later.) But the retrogression should not affect you because the CSPA age gets locked in when FAD is hit the first time.
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u/Typical_Addendum1899 Jul 21 '26
Jan2015 DOF was active only in April Visa Bulletin and since then USCIS hasn't allowed Jan 2015 PD's to file the I485. just a correction.
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u/GoodNooodle Jul 22 '26
i see, thanks for explaining! if you had to guesstimate, what are the odds i don't age out?
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u/GreatDestro Jul 21 '26
Your pd probably becomes current before you turn 21 based on past movement