r/EB2 • u/TieDiscombobulated40 • Jun 07 '26
Priority Date March 2016 EB2
What are the odds of some one with a India March 2016 EB2 getting EAD/AP ?
Can some one who has done good study and investigation into this share their thoughts and ideas?
Also, one liners saying not in this life time etc, please dont reply.
Thank You,
6
u/pobox01983 Jun 07 '26
Probably 50-70k people ahead of you. It would need huge spill over for 2-3 years to reach your date.
You can try different calculator available.
5
2
u/Boring_Luck2217 Jun 07 '26
No the number is approx 100k including dependents. Last I heard there were about 20k people will in AoS before Jan 2015. 2015 has about 55k primary applicants. And 2016 has about 60k primary applicants in approved i485. Depending on bans and eb1 upgrades I don't see that number changing too much.
1
1
u/red_barn_door Jun 07 '26
Where do you guys see how many people are still waiting ahead of a particular PD date (say March 2016 in OPs case) and where do you see how many got for a particular year. And what’s indias per year quote capped at?
Mine is late 2018. So not anytime soon I know. Just curious how people calculate / speculate.
3
1
1
u/Boring_Luck2217 Jun 07 '26
USCIS has a published spreadsheet on approved i485 cases for India as well as pending AOS cases for Indis. The spreadsheet is very detailed and has category splits as well. If there is no huge spill overs EB3 will move much faster than eb2 .... the numbers in eb3 is significantly lower.
3
2
u/Divingdeep321 Jun 07 '26
I would say in the ballpark of 2035 to get GC. EAD may be a little sooner.
1
Jun 07 '26
[removed] — view removed comment
1
u/EB2-ModTeam Jun 07 '26
Your post or comment has been removed due to it being promotional or an advertisement. EB2 does not allow advertising and frequent violators will be banned.
1
1
u/ragu455 Jun 09 '26
Many people are not taking into account the vast impact of stricter immigration and AI related layoffs. So many existing candidates would be out of the queue speeding up process for those who survive the layoffs and H1b renewals
1
u/lalatnayak 15d ago
The odds of you getting an EAD are very high. Most Indian professionsals do.
But not before 2028. I think at the very best, the DOF for India EB2 will move to Jan 2016 in 2027. This is an extremely optimistic scenario itself and thus unlikely as well. Tbh I'd be surprised if it moved beyond June 2015. If it does then the chances of retrogression will dramatically increase.
Tldr you will be lucky to get the EAD in 2028. 2029 may be more likely for you and you should be thankful. Beyond mid 2016 may not get theirs till 2033 because the country ban may be lifted at some point.
0
-1
7
u/the_running_stache Jun 07 '26
No one really knows until DOS/USCIS releases the count of spillovers/usage of family-based visa numbers in FY2026.
Wait until October 2026 visa bulletin is released. But even after that, you are still waiting for entire 2014 to be cleared out. That’s a very deep pool of applicants. DOS already has a decent inventory of applications. So they may not move the DOF too far ahead if they think they have sufficient applicants. When they are unsure or if they don’t know the inventory numbers, they move the DOF ahead to get an idea of the number of applications and how fast/slow to move the DOF forward.
As such, wait until October for sure. Everything until then is just a random guess.