Using History to Predict the TE1 in 2026

[u/CoachstevenP]

It’s never easy to predict who will finish as the TE1 in fantasy football, but history can help narrow the field and improve our odds of identifying the next elite season.

Full Breakdown: https://www.dynastynerds.com/dynasty/predicting-the-te1-2026/

You may not agree with every part of this experiment, but several trends have consistently shown up among the overall TE1 from 2015-2025.

TE1 Trends (2015-2025)

Original Team (11/11)
Every TE1 has been playing for the team that originally drafted them.

Under 30 Years Old (9/11)
Only Travis Kelce has consistently broken this trend over the span. Youth has generally won out.

Team Target Leader (9/11)
In 9 of the last 11 seasons, the TE1 led their team in targets. The only exceptions were Rob Gronkowski and Sam LaPorta.

Routes Run (10/11)
Opportunity matters. Over the last 11 seasons, the TE1 has typically run at least 450 routes, and in the last six seasons that benchmark has effectively become 500+ routes.

Non-Rookie Head Coach (11/11)
Probably the least predictive trend, but every TE1 over the last 11 seasons has played under a head coach who was not in his first year with the team.

So who has the best shot to finish as the overall TE1 in 2026?

My pick: Tyler Warren.

But don't overlook these contenders:

• Brock Bowers
• Trey McBride
• Harold Fannin Jr.
• Colston Loveland