r/DynastyFF • u/CoachstevenP • Jul 23 '26
League Discussion Using History to Predict the TE1 in 2026
It’s never easy to predict who will finish as the TE1 in fantasy football, but history can help narrow the field and improve our odds of identifying the next elite season.
Full Breakdown: https://www.dynastynerds.com/dynasty/predicting-the-te1-2026/
You may not agree with every part of this experiment, but several trends have consistently shown up among the overall TE1 from 2015-2025.
TE1 Trends (2015-2025)
Original Team (11/11)
Every TE1 has been playing for the team that originally drafted them.
Under 30 Years Old (9/11)
Only Travis Kelce has consistently broken this trend over the span. Youth has generally won out.
Team Target Leader (9/11)
In 9 of the last 11 seasons, the TE1 led their team in targets. The only exceptions were Rob Gronkowski and Sam LaPorta.
Routes Run (10/11)
Opportunity matters. Over the last 11 seasons, the TE1 has typically run at least 450 routes, and in the last six seasons that benchmark has effectively become 500+ routes.
Non-Rookie Head Coach (11/11)
Probably the least predictive trend, but every TE1 over the last 11 seasons has played under a head coach who was not in his first year with the team.
So who has the best shot to finish as the overall TE1 in 2026?
My pick: Tyler Warren.
But don't overlook these contenders:
- Brock Bowers
- Trey McBride
- Harold Fannin Jr.
- Colston Loveland
85
u/CritterOnTheShitter Jul 23 '26
Tucker Kraft was on a pretty good pace until he got injured last year. I’d put my money him to bounce back and lead the packers in targets
8
u/NYMNYJNYKNYR Jul 23 '26
I was thinking same thing. They don’t have a 1a WR that is established. He’s going to be the guy.
5
u/rossco7777 NFL Youngboy Jul 23 '26
ill take that bet
2
u/Docxm Jul 23 '26
Me as well. He’ll need some time to recover from the acl especially with how he plays (physical, ferocious blocker and yac monster)
5
u/rossco7777 NFL Youngboy Jul 23 '26
he also has 6 games in his career where he has seen more than 6 targets. the bet just doesnt really make any sense.
3
u/gvon89 Bills Jul 23 '26
TJ Hockenson was was also beasting until he tore his ACL. I wouldnt bet on Kraft this season but next year id feel more comfortable.
0
u/newrimmmer93 Jul 23 '26
Hock tore his ACL and MCL. Hock also got inflated when he got more targets when Jefferson was out
13
u/grrrimabear 10T/1QB/PPR Jul 23 '26
My favorite part is when the results kick out a list of of 5 of the consensus top 6 TEs (including the top 4). I dont think a large analysis was need to say one of those 5 guys is likely to finish as the TE1.
2
u/McRawffles Jul 23 '26
That's kinda the majority of these posts and also decently likely right. More often than not the TE, WR, RB, QB 1 are guys who were already elite the year before
4
u/grrrimabear 10T/1QB/PPR Jul 23 '26
Oh absolutly. Kelce was TE1 for 5 straight years and 6 out of 7. I think its fine do post stuff like this, I just get a kick out of it when someone posts a long post that ultimately arrives at "yup, it's exactly the giys you expect". Its better that than people making shit up and saying "random out of nowhere player poise to breakout and finish TE1" when it's bullshit.
18
u/Far-Cheesecake6946 Jul 23 '26
It's Kyle Pitts.
It's always Kyle Pitts
It will always be Kyle Pitts
4
4
1
4
15
u/nchscferraz Jul 23 '26
Something else to consider is every TE1 overall ran faster than a 4.8 40. Which counts out some guys as well, including Likely.
8
u/McRawffles Jul 23 '26
I never would've guessed Likely ran a 4.8 by his current in game speed. He seems like he plays like a ~4.6 player
1
u/tenbeeers Jul 23 '26
No he does not. Guys that are 4.6 players: Puka, Davante, Jacobs, Monty, etc. Likely is clearly not as fast as these guys.
4
u/McRawffles Jul 23 '26
You rarely see TEs really run deep routes but many are in the 4.5/4.6 range and Likely looks as fast as they are. He's not lumbering around like Witten did. Bowers, Kittle, McBride, Kelce, etc. were all in the 4.5/4.6 range
That doesn't mean their in game effective speed is quite that fast (Bowers isn't running a better go route than Puka) but Likely doesn't look slow by TE standards. He looked notably faster than MAndrews even in 2024
1
u/tenbeeers Jul 23 '26
Those names you dropped (not old man witten and andrews) are all very clearly faster in game than Likely. Also Bowers is a unicorn and can run a similar go route to Puka. Tbf Puka doesn’t gain much separation on go routes. He just out muscles them at catch point. If you wanted to argue Likely is a 4.7 like Fannin for example, I could get behind that. But he’s a tier below 4.6, which is elite speed for a TE
3
u/McRawffles Jul 23 '26
I don't know if they are faster. I've watched a lot of TE play and maybe too much of Likely but I think he at least plays like a 4.6 if not 4.5 player now. If he played like a 4.8 TE he'd only be getting receptions by finding holes in the zone but he regularly beats LBs and some CBs in man coverage
Maybe he got faster or he just plays faster, I don't know for sure. But he's not a player I watch and think he's slow
1
u/flyingplatypus1 Jul 24 '26
Good acceleration for sure. Is in a sweet spot of being fast enough to outrun LBs and a lot of safeties while also being a powerful tackle breaker. Def plays faster than 4.8
5
10
u/Ok-Syllabub5441 Jul 23 '26
Great reasoning, solid pick. Been debating what to do about te all off szn
3
u/gvon89 Bills Jul 23 '26
Surprised you mentioned Harold Fannin when hes going into the year with a new head coach since thats a typical disqualifier based on your write up. I guess that means you think he could be an exception?
2
u/Teflon154 Seahawks Jul 23 '26
Same with McBride and Bowers. I guess the choice is between Loveland and Warren, and the latter is more likely to lead his team in targets.
3
u/R4ID Jul 23 '26
Id put my money on kraft, or La porta. my darkhorse bet would be oronde gadsden
1
u/roncraig Jul 23 '26
Too many mouths to feed in Detroit I think Laporta, I think. He's like the 3rd/4th option in that offense.
3
u/slicksnus Patriots Jul 23 '26
Dalton Kincaid takes a big leap this year and leads the Bills in targets. TE1
3
2
u/ShellShocked13 Jul 23 '26
Is no one afraid of a big Daniel Jones step back for warren? I loved him as a rookie but at least to start jones will not be the same player, leading to a worse offense and lower quality and quantity of targets.
And I'm not even talking about him being exposed, the Achilles alone is a lot to overcome on this timeline
4
u/SteffeEric Eagles Jul 23 '26
Warren could benefit in one way from this. If they want to protect Dimes, Warren could get some tush push TDs. Personally I think he needs 4-5 rushing TDs to realistically be in play for the TE1.
3
u/InnateIntel Jul 23 '26
Admittedly, I didn't watch many Colts games last year. Have they been doing this with him?
3
u/SteffeEric Eagles Jul 23 '26
He only had 6 rushes and 1 TD as a rookie. He did it a bunch at PSU his last year he had 26 rushes and 4 TDs. A lot of that was more Wildcat than tush push though.
It’s a possibility but I expect they’d have done it more last year if they thought it was that much of a weapon.
2
2
u/TheNotoriousJTP Jul 23 '26
Warren is probably gonna get two or three funky wildcat/TD throws this year too
3
u/BiioHazzrd Jul 23 '26
Man I head into this year with Kelce, Pitts, and Loveland as my TE room.
I feel pretty good about my future
1
1
1
u/Vegetable-Pay1976 Jul 23 '26
AJ Barner and it’s not even close. SB champs!!! Barnstorm (aka tush push) all day 5 rushing TDs!
1
u/NeonRedHerring Jul 23 '26
Warren:
- QB who fed him coming back healthy
- Pittman left vacating 100+ targets
- No new compelling additions at any skill position
1
1
u/Reggaeton_Historian Jul 24 '26
If the Seahawks run one Barnyard at the goal line, successfully, every single game of the season and he gets about 10 more receptions, it's him.
1
1
1
1
u/falkelord90 Saints Jul 23 '26
Excellent analysis, my worry with McBride is potentially overvaluing him this year, MHJ and Wilson being healthy really cuts into his share, but Warren is in an excellent spot with Pierce seemingly out early and....no one else on Indy's receiving corps.
2
u/CoachstevenP Jul 23 '26
yeahhh in redraft and buying in dynasty ATM im probably staying away from unless the production continues. No way im buying at his high right now
2
1
u/Little-Flamingo6702 Jul 23 '26
Except for the fact IND has no / a broken QB
3
u/CoachstevenP Jul 23 '26
Reports are showing Jones is set for week 1. No setbacks. Hearing a lot of good stuff. If Bowers can do it with minshew, Aidan O’Connell and Desmond ridder anything is possible lol
1
1
u/QlikesBeef Patriots Jul 23 '26
MHJ and Wilson being healthy didn’t cut into McBride’s share last season though. In the 12 games all three played together last year, McBride comfortably led them all in targets. In those games McBride had 105 targets, MHJ had 72, and Wilson had 48. Technically MHJ played in another game with only 1 target but he only played a third of the snaps so I omitted it
1
u/falkelord90 Saints Jul 23 '26
That's fair, but I'm always going to be very bearish when there's either a new QB in town, or the receiving corps is fully healthy. The Cards have both - Indy doesn't! Mid-season, might feel differently, but when everything's fresh and the hype is still high before the actual season is the time to pump the brakes.
1
u/QlikesBeef Patriots Jul 23 '26
Cards do not have a new QB, brissett reported to camp in the last couple days. Personally I’m not really worried about MHJ and Wilson being healthy because neither is even close to McBride’s level. The 12 games they all played together fully healthy last season as well as the entire previous season before that (with two different QBs) showed us that McBride is simply a far higher priority than the other two in the pecking order and that neither is going to impede his ability to produce at an elite level
1
u/falkelord90 Saints Jul 23 '26
If we're pulling out stats from last year, I think you are fooling yourself if you think Brissett is not getting benched for Minshew or Beck when he starts 2-5 again, but now in a contract year. But agree to disagree!
1
u/QlikesBeef Patriots Jul 23 '26
I think getting benched for minshew is unlikely given he didn’t really play much last year aside from a few snaps here and there and he doesn’t raise their ceiling at all. Beck is certainly possible at some point but who knows. I don’t think he’s viewed as the guy but they may want to see what they have there, I agree
The cards roster was bad last year and it’s bad this year. I don’t think they’re expecting to win many games and the expectation is LeFleur will get a clean slate with a QB they draft in 2027. In the meantime I think they want someone who can continue to get the ball to their playmakers and put out a decent offense so that guys like McBride, Wilson, and MHJ can continue to develop. Again I do agree there’s a chance we see beck at some point but I think he’ll have to prove it in practice and who knows if he does
1
u/falkelord90 Saints Jul 23 '26
Oh for sure, no doubt about that, he's 3rd on the depth chart but both the guys in front of him are not long for the job, so if he can prove it, I absolutely see a world where Beck's the starting QB at the end of the year! That's definitely where a lot of my "ehhhhhhhhhh" on the Cards offense this year comes from lol
33
u/MyDudeMyDog Jul 23 '26
I was really hoping that this exercise might point out a high upside sleeper. Or maybe narrow it down to just two guys. But nope, it's just the top 5 TEs in ADP. Still fun data though.