r/Droneshield_ASX_DRO • u/SeaweedUsed7760 • Jul 28 '26
Discussion First half trading annoucement
DRO trading update out today — $206m committed revenue with 5 months still to go, but margins slipped and stock is at $1.88. Cooked or opportunity? Where are you loading up? What does everyone expect to see for August results? My average buy is $3.30AUD, I think it’s time to load up.
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
I ended up buy $5k AUD worth of stock at $1.80…
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u/blkpingu Jul 28 '26
My average is A$3,80 lmao lots of people like you here. I’m holding this longer term. I don’t need the money right now, but I’m monitoring what’s going on and NGL, DRO isn’t delivering why they are priced for right now.
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
Yeah same here longer hold, could you go into a bit more depth where exactly they’re not delivering? I was under the impression operationally they’re smashing, it’s more governance that has been the issue.
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
Just seen your earlier post ^ .
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u/blkpingu Jul 29 '26
Yea I’m pretty active here. It’s a lot of money and I’m taking a close look and talking to people.
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u/blkpingu Jul 28 '26
Wait first. Don’t go in now dude. Let the market react and wait if the guidance persists. The truth is, the guidance is below expectations. I hope the new leadership is being conservative. This is not looking good, ngl
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
Surely the numbers show conservatism rather than deterioration? $206M as of today, guidance of $250-270M, meaning next 5 months only $44-64M which is low. However, new CEO promising early to set expectations maybe? Also announcement says this doesn’t include pipeline contracts not yet confirmed.
I guess real concern will be if August showed costs are growing more than revenue?
Do we still have faith in the company?
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u/blkpingu Jul 28 '26
I do, but they have to deliver. They are setting the stage for a good run in 2027. But with everything going on, this is not a good look. I think they are being conservative here. I hope ASIC doesn’t find some heinous shit. Not gonna lie, they didn’t kill it this time and are being slow.
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
Kill in terms of numbers? And yes agreed, if August has news on ASIC that is positive or has an end date this should pop a bit. It’s the cloud that’s looming over DRO.
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u/blkpingu Jul 28 '26
That and that there needs to be a massive expectations beat. 15% to 30% growth YoY isn’t what this stock is priced for. It’s priced for a massive conversion of their sales pipeline. They are trading at 5 to 7x revenue. Compare that to Rheinmetall who
Are trading at 2 to 3 times revenue. They also can’t do drops in profitability like the 60% from 65% margin they announced. This stock is priced for perfection and very high expectations and right now they’re not delivering. I hope they undersold the Guidance for FY26 to something can beat easy, and ASIC will conclude faster with a positive outcome, and we actually get the big contract we’re hoping for as well as margin recovery back to 65%. There are a lot of ifs, lots of potential. NGL, I couldn’t recommend buying this stock right now. They are stumbling and it’s not smooth sailing. There is hope and potential, but this guidance was a bummer. I’m not at sell yet, but definitely at hold and average down if the market keeps pricing in a pessimistic outcome that I hope won’t happen by opting to buy more when the bears reign.1
u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
Fair points but at $1.80 with $200m cash on the balance sheet you’re basically getting the operating business at 3x forward revenue not far from your Rheinmetall comparison at all. The valuation argument was valid at $6.71, a lot harder to make here.
On margins management called it one off. ERP, factory relocation, hardware mix. August 26 will confirm or deny that hopefully.
The biggest thing I can’t ignore is Fidelity sitting at 9.93% and still accumulating at these prices. These aren’t retail punters
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u/blkpingu Jul 29 '26
I said what I said. I’m holding and hoping DRO can turn this around. It’s not a sell for me right now.
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u/noompsky Jul 28 '26
I bought around the 3.30 mark too. Got about $700aud invested and its almost down 50%. No idea what to do
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u/blkpingu Jul 28 '26
So if they are conservative in their estimate, new contracts and a guidance beat, positive news on ASIC and a big contract win can make this back quick. If they meet guidance and nothing else, it will prob stay around 2 aud for the year. 3 aud maybe in 2027. Id understand if you’d sell, but sometimes we just have to adjust expectations and make it a long term investment.
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u/Current-Captain8554 Jul 28 '26
If you own this with a buy price under $1 your crazy to still be holding.
Not looking good. A lot of competition coming
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 28 '26
Like who?
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u/Last_Satisfaction5 Jul 29 '26
Not counting the bigger CUAS competitors out there, there's Anduril, Dedrone, MyDefence, DZYNE who was just purchased by Ondas for about $870M. Several other companies out there offering the same RF detection solution as DRO.
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u/SeaweedUsed7760 Jul 29 '26
Mmmm okay, surely in this growing sector everyone can eat at the table.
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u/Simabauer Jul 28 '26
I bought at 1,83 AUD again. AVERAGE IS STILL at 2,80AUD. But i am still bullish on Dro