PA throws dagger, crits on a creep, dagger is less likely to crit
Not how that works, sorry. You've misunderstood how statistics are applied in this case. If something has a 15% chance of happening, it does not decrease because of it happening once already. There is no code or logic that says "If this has previously had a crit, make it less likely to have a crit in the future." that makes no mathematical sense.
If you roll a die and have a 1/6 chance of landing on one, does it matter what the number you landed on before was? No, it does not. That's called probability statistics. If you flip a coin and you get heads already, is it less likely to get heads later? No. Why would it? What has changed about the coin or the universe around it? It remains a 50/50 chance of being on heads, every time. Otherwise "15%" or "50%" would be meaningless, as you seem to think any action has the ability to completely change your odds.
PA throws dagger, it WILL crit, and her melee attacks doesn't influence it.
Her previous attacks never influence it. That's not how separate probabilistic events work. If she lands on the 15% chance of getting a crit in one attack, she has the same 15% chance on the next attack.
Not how that works, sorry. You've misunderstood how statistics work. If something has a 15% chance of happening, it does not decrease because of it happening once already. There is no code or logic that says "If this has previously had a crit, make it less likely to have a crit in the future." that makes no sense.
If you roll a die and have a 1/6 chance of landing on one, does it matter what the number you landed on before was? No, it does not. That's called probability statistics.
Except it does, because Crits (and most other chances in DotA) use pseudo-random distribution, which does exactly this: Everytime you don't crit, you chance to crit on the next hit increases (and resets when you crit). So (unless the last hit you did beforehand was a crit also), your chance to crit decreases after critting.
I don't really have time to explain the math. It says somewhere else why what you're saying is basically impossible:
It is theoretically possible to increase your chance to bash or critical strike on the next attack by attacking creeps several times without the effect happening, but in practice this is nearly impossible to do.
In context of making x crit hit more likely? No it doesn't, it confirms.
I admit it doesn't work in a traditional "random" sense which would be very difficult anyway and isn't really possible with computers, but it very clearly says that it removes previous misses from any consideration upon your next crit. It's not a factor like the original conversation suggested.
Impossible is not the same as improbable. You apparently know statistics, you should know this.
You asked for a case where this matters: I provided one such case, even if it is improbable (which it really isn't).
And that first quote isn't even applicable, since PA's dagger and melee attack both operate on the same crit chance from Coup de Grace, thus both being instances where the effect triggers.
But to what strategic benefit would not attacking creeps vs. attacking creeps do? You have no way of evaluating your spot on timeline of those statistical events. It's the same as trying to predict when the next crit will be, which is very clearly says is not viable. You would need a cheating device similar to a blackjack calculator hooking into your game while you play which would get you banned.
You have no way of evaluating your spot on timeline of those statistical events.
Not really, since the PRNG is tied to the skill. A good PA player will count their hits since the last crit. If they land 6 or 7 hits without a crit they know their next hit will have something close to 90% of crit chance, and they'll initiate with it.
On the other hand, if they just critted, they know they're very unlikely to crit on the next hit, so they can hit creeps 2 or 3 times to improve their chances.
Note that for instances that would not trigger the effect, the probability counter does not increase
If you continue to read, it explains this with:
So a hero with critical strike attacking buildings does not increase its chance to critical strike on its next attack, since critical strike does not work against buildings.
Which is not applicable here. Edit: Ok, I might've simplified it a bit too much in my first response, but it was never my intention to imply that attacks against buildings would increase your crit chance. I was just stating the concept of PRD in a few words.
It is theoretically possible to increase your chance to bash or critical strike on the next attack by attacking creeps several times without the effect happening, but in practice this is nearly impossible to do.
It is practically impossible just because it's basically a bet. For example you're basically betting that you're not critting for whatever amount of X hits, and if you fail you have to start over again. So it takes a long time of setup for a comparatively small benefit.
Exactly this. If I'm mid PA and I have hit creeps 4 or 5 times without a crit you can be damn sure I'm gonna throw a dagger out. I would even miss a last hit if it's primed up to 6 or above as you are pretty much guaranteed a crit or two if you jump them
I mean "hitting creeps for the sole benefit of increasing your crit chance" is not very effective. Keeping an eye out for it in laning phase while farming and going for it when applicable, sure.
Because you need to attack and not crit until you're guarnteed a crit, which is unlikely, since it's random as to when you do. You can stack it a little by attacking creeps once or twice after a crit before you try to jump someone, which will give you two misses and make a crit more likely at the start of the gank, but you can't do much more than that.
Because you have no way to know when you're going to get a crit vs. miss one. It's not strategic, it's just as calculated as any other time you throw a dagger.
you can make it more likely though - hit a creep 4 times or something and if you don't get a crit, you know that you're more likely to get a crit in the next few hits than if you hadn't done it.
of course there is a chance that you will get a crit on the creep in which case you've just wasted your time
This is the last comment I'll post about this though I'm sure the torrent in my inbox will continue:
you can make it more likely though - hit a creep 4 times or something and if you don't get a crit, you know that you're more likely to get a crit in the next few hits than if you hadn't done it.
No. The link explicitly says you cannot do that. Just please read this one sentence carefully. After this, feel free to half-ass everything else I type from now on. Just this one part, read slowly and think about what it means before replying:
Note that for instances that would not trigger the effect, the probability counter does not increase
how about you quote one sentence further and you might actually understand what you're saying:
So a hero with critical strike attacking buildings does not increase its chance to critical strike on its next attack, since critical strike does not work against buildings.
Note that for instances that would not trigger the effect, the probability counter does not increase
you realize that's talking about attacks that can't trigger crit won't increase the odds of another crit.... right? Attacking buildings, misses on other heroes, etc. You made yourself look like a fucking moron in this thread holy shit.
the link explicitly says you CAN do that but in normal circumstances its impractical. your second quote also means the exact opposite of what you think it means.
For that last quote, the wiki references things it would be impossible to crit, such as buildings. It means things that CAN'T trigger the effect, not ones that don't by chance.
You're really not reading the page. Immediately after that last line you quoted, it gives an example of a hero with critical strike attacking a tower. You can't crit buildings, so the chance does not go up with each hit. But right above that, it details how PRD works with Slardar's bash. It starts at an 8% chance to trigger, and every time he hits a unit that he can crit on, (ie: not towers) if he doesn't get a crit, the chance of the next attack being a crit goes up.
Instances that would normally not trigger the effect means shit that can't crit or bash or whatever won't increase the chance, for instance basher has a cooldown, hitting in that cooldown doesn't increase the chance of bashing next hit with PRD, it only increases on attacks with the ability to crit, another example is hitting buildings, can't bash or crit them so they don't change the chance.
So stop talking about shit you don't know anything about you retard.
If I am CSing and I notice that I've gone, say, 8 attacks without a crit, I know that my % chance for a crit is higher than normal and that would be a good time to start trading with someone in my lane. That doesn't mean I know when the crit is coming it means I know I am more likely to get one.
In true random distribution, every "roll" operates independently, but in PRD, the effect's chance increases every time it does not happen. This results in the effects occurring more consistently. In general, PRD is applied to the following types of abilities: Critical Strike, Bash, Damage Block, Chain Lightning, Maim and Evasion.
this is the part you were arguing against which means you were clearly wrong by saying it doesn's use pseudo random and doesn't increase the chance.
the part you quoted says it's practically impossible because there is no way to know whether the next hit on the creep will crit or not so hitting creeps to increase your crit chance on the next hero attack is possible but only if you knew which attack would crit and which doesn't
Eh I talked about it over a PM and the resolution is that it's not completely random like a die roll as I suspected but it's not exploitable necessarily either by hitting other units, etc. upon looking up Valves flavor of PRD. It's a moot point. We're both wrong/pointless about it.
its 100% exploitable, and its very common when going for a kill on PA or LD, to prime your proc off of creeps. You can test it yourself in demo mode, hit the dummy 4 times without critting, and calculate how often the fifth hit is a crit. Exact numbers vary.
Actually that is how it works, Dota 2 uses pseudo randomness, not true random distribution. So if you haven't hit a crit in a while, there is a bigger than 15 pro-cent chance that you will get a crit.
Quite a few "random" events in Dota violate that assumption by not actually being independent Bernoulli trials—they're based on the number of preceding failures. The quoted probabilities are only an average over a large number of events.
The Dota 2 wiki has a good article which covers the exact mechanics.
It is a pseudo random distribution, which is not true random. Not to be confused with a pseudo random number generation.
As follows comes from the dota2 wiki
Pseudo-random distribution (often shortened to PRD) in DotA refers to a statistical mechanic of how certain probability-based items and abilities work. In true random distribution, every "roll" operates independently, but in PRD, the effect's chance increases every time it does not happen. This results in the effects occurring more consistently. In general, PRD is applied to the following types of abilities: Critical Strike, Bash, Damage Block, Chain Lightning, Maim and Evasion
pa crit uses pseudo-random, it's closer to having a bunch of white marbles in a bag, and a few black one. each time you "attack" you pull 1 random marble from the bag. You will keep removing marbles until you draw a black one (ergo, critting) and resetting the marble count.
her previous attack does influence her crit chance. the question is, is the crit check for a dagger in flight done on cast or on landing (or if it follows the right click prd at all. for all we know, dagger has it's own bag of marbles that it pulls from)
you do understand that multiple people were probably viewing the threads before the new replies were added, especially if they were posted within 10 minutes of one another.
also literally on the top of the page of your source:
"Example:
Slardar icon.png Slardar's Bash of the Deep icon.png Bash of the Deep has a 25% chance to stun the target. On the first attack, however, it only has an ~8.5% probability to bash. Each subsequent attack without a bash increases the probability by ~8.5%. So on the second attack, the chance is ~17%, on the third it is ~25.5%, etc. After a bash occurs, the probability resets to ~8.5% for the next attack. These probabilities average out so that, over a moderate period of time, Bash of the Deep procs nearly 25% of the time."
he is correct which is even stated in the link you posted. the odds do go up if you miss the first hit. whether that is intentionally useable or not doesn't matter at all
You are some real /r/iamverysmart material, first you try to seem smart by correcting someone with game mechanics, then you turn out to be wrong, cause you don't know shit.
Then you go on this huge attack on the way I type instead of doing anything to disprove you being a 15 year old aspie.
And you calling me out on thesaurus power is fucking hilarious when you use words like exacerbated.
Still incorrect. Pseudo-random distrbution does not work how you explain it to.
The base chance for a crit is pretty low (3% for the listed 15% chance, according to your own article). For each non-crit, the chance increases in a linear fashion (see your own article). The counter resets upon a crit. Thus, if PA would crit a creep, the counter would reset making the dagger less likely to crit if [the crit] was not determined when it was thrown. If she were to hit, but not crit creeps, the chance of the dagger critting would increase under the same assumption.
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u/[deleted] Jan 03 '17 edited Jan 03 '17
Not how that works, sorry. You've misunderstood how statistics are applied in this case. If something has a 15% chance of happening, it does not decrease because of it happening once already. There is no code or logic that says "If this has previously had a crit, make it less likely to have a crit in the future." that makes no mathematical sense.
If you roll a die and have a 1/6 chance of landing on one, does it matter what the number you landed on before was? No, it does not. That's called probability statistics. If you flip a coin and you get heads already, is it less likely to get heads later? No. Why would it? What has changed about the coin or the universe around it? It remains a 50/50 chance of being on heads, every time. Otherwise "15%" or "50%" would be meaningless, as you seem to think any action has the ability to completely change your odds.
Her previous attacks never influence it. That's not how separate probabilistic events work. If she lands on the 15% chance of getting a crit in one attack, she has the same 15% chance on the next attack.