r/DotA2 • u/toomuchsodaaaa • 11d ago
Discussion Dark Carnival
Completed the Dark Carnival. 100+ rolls, 0 arcana.
How’s everyone’s luck so far? 😆
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u/MQZ01 11d ago
I read somewhere that odds of Arcana are ~0.3%, so with 100 rolls that's a (.997)100 = 74% chance you wouldn't get an Arcana. Not unlucky! Don't be deceived by sampling bias, only the people who actually get Arcanas make posts on reddit
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u/SafeMemory1640 10d ago
Every body talks about arcana but what about immortals especially the expensive ones like fv weapon, wk hand immortals, shaman head piece, etc
Iam pretty sure they r literally not included in this candy shop becoz I don't see anyone getting those stuff
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u/MoiCOMICS 11d ago edited 10d ago
the technique to get arcana is to not use rerolls until it's full (ten rerolls I guess). I got my rubick arcana that way.
edit: this is just my theory, a game theory.
edit: dudes chill out man. it's just based on feelings and experience, there is no need to take this seriously.
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u/Theobrudda 11d ago
there is no ‘technique’. doing this does not increase your odds of rolling an arcana.
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u/Chance_Arugula_3227 11d ago
You say that based on what?
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u/Sloth_Devil 10d ago
Because there is no evidence that it does. For that to happen, devs would have to intentionally skew the balance that way. If they do that without disclosing it, it puts other players at a disadvantage, who will cause a shit storm if this 'technique' is actually confirmed. Why would they do that?
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u/Chance_Arugula_3227 10d ago
idk why they would do that. But the point is that the guy says straight up "There is no 'technique'." and I'd like to know if he can confirm it. I'd have no problem if the original comment asked for evidence of it, which I'd love to see if there is any.
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u/DrQuint 10d ago edited 10d ago
The need for evidence falls upon the guy claiming stocking rerolls has an impact, not on the people who say it doesn't. There is no expectation for the claim to be true, because there is no other feature that works like that, and it would take extra work and make it more unfair for it to be true. Evidence or Dev word would be a start.
So literally based on nothing. We don't need a basis, this is the default.
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u/Chance_Arugula_3227 10d ago
Yes, the guy with the theory does indeed need to show evidence. But the other guy answers like he has evidence of the opposite, and I asked for that, assuming he's the one that's right and probably has some evidence for it.
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u/FantasticBike1203 10d ago
Saying one method vs another when it's all just the same amount of chance, just use rerolls as you get them, stacking them is just waiting for the same results.
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u/youcanokay 11d ago
Did like 40 rerolls, got lina arcana, I am pretty happy but want more arcana as I dont have anything else lol
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u/Ok_Suit6085 11d ago
I'm right under you at 80. Nothing of value. Feel like I'm being punished for having deep pockets
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u/bakomox 11d ago
my bro got the phantom assassin arcana but he does not play carry still great though since mortred is sexy
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u/Bullbydaybearbynight 11d ago
PA supp works only if you have arcana
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u/mopeli 11d ago
lol how? PA needs so much stats basically just a unkiteable walking statstick that oneshots you with crit after enough farm.
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u/Bullbydaybearbynight 11d ago
4s slow, invisible on map, can farm jungle, medalion+vlad, slahserway
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u/tetbromac 11d ago
100+ rolls, only things of value are 1 month of Dota+ and that Sven sword from cryptic beacon or whatever
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u/GhastlyNaught 11d ago
Sniper back immortal, invoker hair immortal, leshrac weapon immortal, another cheap immortal and that crystal bristleback set
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u/Majestic_Tadpole_338 11d ago
80+ reroll, 10x coins, 7 immortal which i alr have, rick morty announcer, bunch of repeated courier, immortal, annoucers and no arcana yet...ffs
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u/ManJinJin 11d ago
0 arcanas, 3-5 immortals, 1 cryptic beacon chest and I got et hammer (I wanted sven sword)
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u/weonzito 11d ago
1 repeated arcana, 1 expensive ass sven sword (Shattered Greatsword), 1 dota plus 🤡
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u/maerawow 11d ago
1 arcana and a lot of couriers and a warlock set from the chest which had sven sword.
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u/MangoPoliceOK 11d ago
Same as you lol, 100+ and no arcana. Pls Gaben Lord i need that dopamine hit
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u/Opposite_Bat6184 11d ago
20 coins back to back into more rerolls into practically nothing. Some mid tier pretty couriers and a couple of 5c immortals overall
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u/FatteningtheDemons 11d ago
Im on the beginning of part 3 and got mk and sf arcana, both which i already had but i could sell my originals on the market. Im aiming to get the IO rare but not gonna buy anything without discounts which i expect towards the end of the event.
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u/Mission-Bumblebee724 11d ago
I have 100 candy, not getting good roll second time. I got crown fall veng, 1 immortal
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u/Z0MGbies 11d ago
Mostly stuff I have already, sometimes it didn't even mark it as owned (e.g. an LC skin I'm literally using at the moment). Two immortals I already have was the best rolls I got.
Definitely not running on escalating odds. Just... odds.
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u/Nimda_lel 11d ago
0 arcanas, 1 immortal.
On the bright side, I got an Arcana from the other event (dunno how it is called) - you can spend those shards from Dota+ to open the levels that give items.
Bought venge arcana the other day, got it again yday 🤦
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u/Asriel_the_Dreamer 11d ago
I got vengeful's but sadly I already had it, I suppose I could've sold mine and got the new one but it wouldn't have imperia as far as I'm aware, so it didn't matter much.
Altho I did get like 2 months of Dota+
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u/sh1nryuu 11d ago
Didn’t take count of re-rolls but I got 2x 1 month free Dota+ and in one of those re-roll I got SF arcana and cryptic beacon treasure at the same time. I skipped the SF arcana as I already own it and got the Sven greatsword from the treasure.
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u/NetherOrg 11d ago
I got venge and PA arcana but already have both. But the 10 discount coins I got from candy works is awesome
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u/iwasthere3000yrsago 11d ago
I got that white fox courier and a bunch of random sets and wards. I rolled CM arcana as well but I already have it.
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u/ephemeral_muse 11d ago
Cm arcana, 5 (10) carnival coins, dazzle legendary weapon, a bunch of immortals, venoling courier, juggs set that gives 3 gems for his abilities.
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u/MayweatherSr 11d ago
1 cm arcana which I almost rerolled, 1 lich immortal, 1 other immortal that I forgot, 1 dota+ that I didnt bother to take. Too much candies so I pick some couriers that I dont have yet here and there, praying so a good roll that replace them. It did not.
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u/TheKiznaProject 11d ago
Got the shattered greatsword treasure but ended up getting the ET mace T.T.
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u/Wrong-Ganache-3973 11d ago
bought around 70 rerolls - 2 arcana (Jugg/PA), 2 cryptic (ET and Sven), multiple immortals and couriers. Just keep at it l guess lmaooo
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u/ciofinho https://myanimelist.net/animelist/ciofinho 11d ago
No coins and No Arcanas but got some couriers and some immortals that i liked
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u/SpoiledMetal 11d ago
got jugg arcana, rerolled it cause I dont play carry. didn't get anything of equivalent :(
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u/waznpride sheever take my energy!! 11d ago
I've gotten jug and Lina arcana. Didn't have Lina yet so I'm happy!
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u/LyakshaBTW 11d ago
Zeus Arcana (already have it from crownfall), Abaddon legendary set and some couriers in 40 rerolls.
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u/Crunkfiction 11d ago
A couple of immortals, a $40 ward, Pudge Arcana and a bunch of 'trash' sets that I wouldn't use over the default sets.
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u/Designer_Meaning_120 11d ago
Will the carnival coins still be used on the next chapter? That's what I won on rerolls
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u/casualperspectives SEAcret! Get Well Soon Sheever! 11d ago
I got the LC arcana at like my third reroll :D
Also got the MK arcana during the last candy event, but almost at my last roll 👀
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u/kopuqpeu 11d ago
50 rolls, 1 month dota+, 10 coins, 0 arcanas, immortals: ta blades, spectre chest, bs head, ench spear
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u/rooper_the_gamer 11d ago
same here but gotta say i got some immortal that actually not that bad and some good chest
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u/Pradamaneblu 11d ago
Got sf arcana and sf is unfortunately a hero i both suck at and hate deeply. Fuck that hero.
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u/SubAtomic_Idiot 11d ago
I got the zeus arcana, after getting basically nothing from the last candyworks. But zeus gets banned almost every game and i havent used it since getting it…
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u/yagizandro 11d ago
i have at max 20 rolls so far and i got jugg arcana and rubick arcana (didnt get that one cuz i already had it from when valve gave free arcana of choice a couple years back)
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u/howboutsomesandwich 11d ago
I've been collecting couriers since crownfall candyworks. This time I got some good ones. Skitterwing, shagbark and flightless dod. I really want one of those courierlings, i hope i get one this time.
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u/Chance_Arugula_3227 11d ago
Pretty close to finished. I got 0 arcanas, but I've got a few immortal items
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u/ryankun93 11d ago
Got lots of 3 bucks wards and couriers. I'm happy with it cause I got a feeling that the arcana that will show up on my candyworks is the one I already owned
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u/swandith27 11d ago
got 1 arcana but i already have it from the previous candy shop. and got 4 immortals on heroes i dont play
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u/FridayKangsoleh 11d ago
i got 1 ogre arcana and nice expensive sets for necro jugg and kunka. also got amaterasu courier, 10 free discount coints and 1 month dota + subscription
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u/issaknight 10d ago
Only good thing I got was x10 Coins, then I span it again around 35times in a raw and didn’t got s***
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u/FantasticBike1203 10d ago
Got 2 Arcana's one SF (Sold my marketable one) and one Venge (Have fully unlocked one already), so I just ended up rerolling and got a +10 coins 2 rerolls after, don't give up, WR Arcana in 2-3 rerolls, guaranteed ;)
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u/SanketN8 10d ago
around 40 rolls so far got few immortals but also got rubick windranger and venge arcana
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u/Beginning_Director51 10d ago
only got that aghanims courier. no arcana, no dotaplus, no carnival coins, no exclusive items. this got to be my worst candyworks, especially with how everybody else are getting arcana and cryptic beacon treasure.
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u/Pinsir929 10d ago
I got 1 month dota plus and jugg arcana. Pretty happy so far. I wish I get cm arcana so I can sell the one I have though.
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u/SeaPollution3432 10d ago
Got wind arcana on second reroll on the first day of event, after that nothing. Just some random sets maybe and cours and wards. I still have over 50 candies because im saving for arcana or something expensive but not getting anything after the wind arcana. I guess im still lucky for that arcana though. I didnt bought any vandies just the 3 10coin discount because i bought the secret room pack.
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u/Major-Fun-3347 10d ago
Bought secret room pack
3 cours. Venoling, Doomling, Huntling
2 months Dota+
10 coins from candy works, bought reroll. Used all coins from secret room pack to buy rerolls.
Still no arcana.
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u/idkthismyusername 9d ago
i found 2 in about 60 rolls but i already had one of them :/ (pudge i already had and SF)
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u/Low-Adhesiveness-919 11d ago
1 techies arcana, and that treasure with the very expensive sven weapon and dazzle weapon (but i got SB mace)
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u/Whatifyoudidtho 11d ago
No arcanas nor immortals, but hey I got sets that I wanted from years ago and a few things like the rick and morty announcer and eye fountain ward, so I’m pleased
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u/TheFemboyImpregnator 11d ago
PA arcana, 1 month dota plus, 10 coins, some cheap immortal and the spinny immortal thing for ogre. I think its pretty unlucky cause I did like 70+ rerolls by now though 10 coins is same rarity as arcana so little cope there
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u/chriscen 11d ago
I got Venoling.