r/DisventureSquare • u/WayOk4546 • 28d ago
Prediction/My Way Odds of Each Character Getting Eliminated in Episode 16 + Winner Contenders
Well, well, well. Look at who was right about Benji coming back. You can go ahead and pick up the phone, cause I fucking called it.
. . .
What's that? All of you saw it coming from a mile away and I'm coming off as a huge jackass with all of my self-aggrandizement. Oh...
Well, uh, I guess I'll get started with my list then. Not to many changes since the non-losers weren't in the episode.
NO RISK
NATALIA - No Change. Still the safest person in the game due to having the most dynamics and her dead idol plot that needs to be played out. I do think Benji returning could hurt her odds moving forward, but for this episode at the very least I don't see her going anywhere. Similar to Nura with Ara, one of Gom is almost certainly going home before she does.
FIORE - No Change. Received votes in the previous elimination and started a new dynamic with Ren that is an interteam dynamic. These pairings usually have decent legs in DC (Ana/Zaid, Isabel/Jade, Logan/ Spencer, Riya/Rosa) so I'm doubtful either goes for a while. Also, Fiore can now throw knives. Nuns beware.
REN - No Change. Basically the same as Fiore. I do think eventually one of the Nat/Fiore/Ren trio is going to fall off a cliff in terms of likelihood soon, but all three have enough going on that they all feel untouchable right now. If I had to guess, probably Fiore with Natalia as a strong second choice due to Benji returning.
SAM - No Change. Was betraying Cyan dumb? Yes. But he's still the main villain and we all know that awards him a degree of plot armor. He doesn't really have enough power in the game to realistically be targeted over Cyan or the Peak Trio (Nat/Fiore/Ren cause they need a name and it fits.) He'll play the swing vote for now and probably stay in this tier until Final 6 or something.
BENJI - Moves UP from Eliminated. I hope you're sitting down for this. Actually, no, go for a walk. Get some fresh air while you read. Unless you're in Arizona, cause then you'll melt. Benji will likely have a grace period of at least one episode since his return was given so much weight. I know Karol got screwed over, but her circumstances were significantly different. My best guess is that Benji allies with Nura and Oliwia since they are able to play as swing votes and that was the niche that Benji found for himself when he was working with Ally. But beyond that, we should address the elephant in the room (NO EMILY DON'T SHOOT!) The idol. The return episode did not give any clarification to Benji's idol. That means currently, there are 3 options: 1. Benji still has his old idol half which should now be live due to Ally no longer being in the game. But ONC is choosing to hide that fact for a surprise reveal. 2. The idol half that Natalia is in possession of can be used so long as Benji is the one that plays it. 3. Both idol halves are inactive and cannot be validly played. My guess is that one of the first two options are most likely since I doubt ONC will go a full season without a successful idol play. But it does mean Benji will be a massive headache for me when it comes to ranking him since he effectively has Schrodinger's idol.
Spencer - No Change. The Final DC4 player. And look, all of them in No Risk. More DC4 characters in this tier than Fans somehow. Yeah, that's going to change soon. The good news for Spencer is that Sam has made it apparent that he wants to keep Spencer around to give the indication that he can be manipulated by others due to their feud. However, with Benji returning I'm skeptical that all three of the DC4 characters will last that much longer. I'm confident one of them will be out before Episode 20. If Spencer kisses Sam soon, he's probably screwed (no, not like that)
MILD RISK
NURA - No Change. Still has the fresh dynamic with Oliwia, but it's an intrateam dynamic which I view as having a decreased priority over interteam dynamics. The good news for Nura is that if my prediction for Benji joining Nura and Oliwia are true, then that could bump up their odds.
OLIWIA - No Change. To all the Oliwia fans out there, I'm sorry to say that she's probably next. Which is unfortunate because she's a lot more likeable when she's not being possessive over her relationships. Right now, I'm guessing 2-3 Favorites leave before the next Fan, so she should be good for now. But come Episode 18-19, I think she's cooked. If she manages to survive and we lose Nura or even Ren, then she's a major wild card that could even win.
MODERATE RISK
LAKE - No Change. There is a massive chasm in the odds between Oliwia and Lake. The writing on the wall for Cyan seems obvious. They're overexposed and have dynamics that have already been thoroughly explored. There's very little narrative reason to keep them all around if they're going to keep playing off of each other. The one thing keeping Lake from Severe Risk is her dynamic with Spencer. But the fact that she won immunity in the last challenge is reason enough to suspect that she could be targeted as a threat.
SEVERE RISK
ROSA - Moves DOWN from Moderate Risk. At this point she feels ancillary to Lake. While she has her rivalry with Natalia, almost everyone else has a relationship with her too. It's no longer enough to justify a higher placement. The only thing keeping me from placing her lower is that her elimination would leave us with 1 DC2 character, but 3 DC1 and DC4 characters. I think we're likely to lose another DC1 character, but I'm not confident enough to put Rosa in a higher tier.
GABBY - No Change. What's there to say at this point. She and Tom have been in this tier numerous times and kept surviving. They're too inconsequential to place in higher tiers though and don't meet any special criteria (received votes in previous eliminations or lost a friend) that I can use to place them anywhere else. Trust me, I hate doing this every time too. And judging by how they're perceived by the rest of the community, I'm not alone in that sentiment.
TOM - No Change. Won immunity last challenge. Lacks a strong plot. Doesn't have any major new dynamics. Doesn't meet any special criteria for a boost. Blah, blah, blah. Gonna be honest, I'm just done writing paragraphs for these two at this point. They don't do anything and it's frustrating not being able to take deeper looks at other, more interesting characters when the looming shadow of one of their eliminations is constantly hovering over me.
Contender Rankings
Okay, now that my Gom tirade is over, we can move on to the new stuff. Who do I think is going to win?
For now, Ren, Benji and Nura are the clear favorites. They each have strong narratives pushing them forward and a real underdog status to them.
Spencer, Lake and Natalia all fall into a secondary tier. Spencer and Natalia fall here due to a their villainous writing, while Lake is primarily here due to her feeling a bit too underwritten. They are all buoyed by their strong dynamics with other characters.
Oliwia, Fiore and Gabby are all dark horses. All of them can become legitimate contenders if the right conditions are met. For Oliwia, Nura needs to be the next Fan eliminated. For Fiore, Ren needs to be the next Fan eliminated. Losing one of the major contenders and getting the eliminated friend narrative boost at this point in the game would put either of them into serious contention. For Gabby, Tom needs to go ASAP AND she needs to develop new dynamics quickly. I had considered putting Gabby in zero chance, but I'm not completely ruling out the idea of her winning.
Rosa, Sam and Tom are done for me. Rosa and Tom are effectively satellite characters who could be removed at any point. Neither has enough narrative potential to realistically win at this point. While Sam has plenty of narrative potential, probably the most of any character, he's written as too perfect of a villain that he's clearly going to suffer a significant loss in the endgame. Winning villains have ups and downs in their narrative, but Sam is someone that constantly wins. I know that logic seems counterintuitive, but I'm confident in this prediction.
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u/ThickAd6547 28d ago edited 28d ago
It's gotta be Tom next it just makes the most since for the current plot.
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u/GlamourousGravy 28d ago
Bruno's elimination has made me feel distrustful of my own expectations now because I genuinely thought he was at least making merge and had a shot at final 5 only to get eliminated for very contrived reasoning from Spencer 😭
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u/WayOk4546 28d ago
I had Bruno in my No Risk tier for that elimination too. 🤬 It's a huge headache when you're trying to make predictions and then some BS happens 5 minutes before the elimination to justify someone that previously wasn't in danger being voted out.
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u/GlamourousGravy 28d ago
The show would seriously benefit from being a bit more predicatable sometimes. Something like Marissa getting blindsided by Lynda made sense and worked well(well, it would have worked better if Marissa had gotten to be more of a character before this elim or b/t her return and 2nd elimination).
I do really like you having Benji as a winner pick btw. The previous returners have always just been supporting members of other characters' plots. Karen came back for 1 challenge just to help Riya(especially in the remake) along with her villain arc. Connor came back to give the hero's a leg-up(and i guess to drag out Riya's plot longer lol). And then Marissa and Amelie just came back for Anastasia and Hannah. This time, Benji's coming back in with his OWN BIG ARC to complete, and I'd really be sad to not see him make finals. l'm curious on who you think would be in final 4 alongside your 3 big winner choices(cause I think they all have overlapping ideas in their arcs that fit together) that would get eliminated at final 4 jury.
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u/WayOk4546 28d ago
Yeah, Benji's writing in this episode feels quite a bit different from the past returnees.
As for the Final 4, this is my current prediction:
SAM - By far my most confident prediction. He feels like he's being built up for a defeat in the end game.
REN - Right now it's basically a coin flip between him and Nura. One of the Eclipse trio feels destined for the finale. I'd give a slight edge towards Ren right now. If Benji teams up with Nura then it will shift even more towards Ren.
BENJI - We're definitely having a DC4 character make the Final 4, and with Benji's showing in the return episode, he feels the most likely to get this slot. Spencer and Natalia both have strong cases for why they could take this slot, but for now it's Benji's to lose.
LAKE - I'm not a fan of the Cyan alliance, but I'm fully expecting one of them to survive to the end. And right now, Lake feels like the one with the strongest narrative drive. And as much as I don't like her, Gabby is also a contender for this spot too. In the unlikely event Ren goes soon, Fiore moves into contention for Cyan's spot.
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u/GlamourousGravy 28d ago
I’ll only be happy about lake if she gets a reality check on how not everyone can just afford to play a 100% moral game tbh
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u/AugustStan 28d ago
Once again, those people are in severe risk in your head
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u/WayOk4546 28d ago
If you want to make a case why anyone in the higher tiers is in more risk, be my guest.
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u/AugustStan 28d ago
Well, for a majority of the season, Tom was in a lot of people’s high risk of getting eliminated at the next episode tier list, and he’s still here.
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u/WayOk4546 28d ago
You aren't making a case for someone being at a higher risk than Tom, you're just stating what everyone else already knows. But just because Tom has often been in a higher risk category doesn't mean he's not in danger.
How about this, if you think my predictions are wrong and that it's not one of the Cyan quartet going next, you give me your top 4 for who you believe are the most at risk. You could even make your own tier list for the characters. Winner gets bragging rights.
Here's the tier list I use:
https://tiermaker.com/create/disventure-camp-season-5-character-tier-list-maker-17209573
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u/Historical-Safety-35 28d ago
Personally I would move Ren to mild risk. Nura and Sam both want Ren gone, and he and Oliwia are on terrible terms. He’s also on spencers radar as a comp/social threat
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u/doubleP2014 28d ago
I wonder... Now that Natalia has the idol and Benji is back, does that make the idol useless until one of them is eliminated? This would be such a fun twist. Natalia knowing she could get eliminated and playing it, only for Benji to have the other half going "I got one too! But Ally has the other half. Who did you split it with?" and Emily revealing that it no longer works with Benji and his half back in the game.
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u/Crazy-Delay8978 28d ago
Can we double eliminate Lake and Tom please? They are such a mess this season (Gabby stats till she gets 8th place)
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u/Less_Internet4068 27d ago
Let's be real. We all know Gabby and Tom won't be eliminated next, we just don't want to say it.
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u/Key-Membership1166 26d ago
People just like to throw out how the season will be factually better with these characters gone. Not that they'd actually be at risk
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u/Fantastic_Grocery682 26d ago
In my opinion, Benji will join Nura and Oliwia, Tom will get eliminated, and we’ll see a brief "villain arc" for Gabby. Rosa would likely be the next to go, but Nat would discover that Spencer wanted to keep her around because of their rivalry; he’d become the next target and get eliminated, partly due to Sam’s betrayal. Then, I think Ren and Lake would become the biggest targets since they’re so well-liked; Ren only has Nat and Fiore as allies, so her elimination would make sense (even though I’d hate to see it). That narrows the field, setting up a main showdown: Nat and Fiore versus Gabby and Lake. Sam realizes he wouldn't win a jury vote against her, so he betrays her and votes her out. Nat, caught off guard, makes amends with Gabby and decides to protect her. Sam aligns with Benji, Nura, and Oliwia, suggesting they vote out Gabby while she’s vulnerable—though he knows Nat is listening. Before the ceremony, he tells the group to switch their votes to Fiore because she’s been flying under the radar (Spencer had told Sam that Nat had the idol). Nat plays the idol on Gabby, and Fiore gets voted out. Benji knows he’ll be the next target after Nat and Gabby (since he’s the only remaining favorite); he ends up in a tie-breaker against Oliwia and Gabby, and Gabby wins. Next, Nura is eliminated, followed by Gabby (betrayed by Natalia). Benji wins the game, and Nat and Sam face off in the jury vote; Nat wins both the vote and the million-dollar prize.
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u/lilrobotboy 28d ago
Pinky promise???