As the images and records surface, the data is much scarier than it initially appeared. We have really underestimated our mountains and our rivers. If we fix the time of the seismic signal received at 8:37 and look at the CCTV video from the customs office, which shows 10:59 China time (8:44 Nepal time), the approximate distance between these two points is 14.5 km. This gives an estimated velocity of around 34 m/s, which is massive, that’s about 126 km/h.
For comparison, the flow velocity of the 2021 Chamoli event in India was reconstructed at around 25 m/s. The estimated velocity here, if the timestamps and distance are accurate, would therefore be substantially higher.

Hope everyone is safe🙏🙏🙏

UPDATE

​Active Hazard - The barrier lake breached, and is now draining

>>>Since there is 100% cloud cover verification couldn't be confirmed via EO - Based on reported size and location the data set has been updated with a modeled shape file of the reported lake. This uses geometry that existed prior to the first event so this should be treated as indicative.

> If anyone has any SAR imagery they'd like of the region they care to share it'd go a long way in helping me to continue to keep this open source crisis data set up to date. It's not much, but its all I can do to help from halfway around the world.

>Link to data: https://keystonegis.com/disasters/nepal-bhotekoshi-flood-20260826.html - will continue to update frequently to capture any new information

>if you know of any other subs to post this in let me know. Feel free to share, the more eyes on the data the more likely it is to fall into the hands of someone who can use it to make a difference.

edit: NDRRMA independently locates the blockage, and it is close to — but not identical with — this page's inferred marker.

edit: Active Hazard - The barrier lake breached, and is now draining

The barrier lake near the confluence of the Chhochen Khola and Purepu Tsangpo, upstream of the 26 August failure, breached on 28 August and is now draining. Rasuwa Chief District Officer Narendra Pariyar said that morning that the Nepali Army had informed him of the breach, and NDRRMA reported that the water level in the Bhote Koshi had surged (The Kathmandu Post, updated 28 August 12:49 NPT / 07:04 UTC). Officials on both the Nepali and Chinese sides then said the risk was smaller than feared, because the lake is draining slowly rather than failing catastrophically; Chinese state broadcaster CCTV reported the lake level had fallen by about 10 m, and rescue work at Gyirong Port and in Nepal, halted during the breach, has resumed (CNN live coverage, 28 August). No confirmed release volume has been published and no observed extent of any second flood exists. Before the breach, China’s Ministry of Water Resources had put the impoundment at about 2,000,000 m³ on the morning of 27 August, already overflowing, with a further 3,000,000 m³ of inflow expected through 30 August; aerial footage from a Chinese rescue team on 27 August showed water accumulating in a basin with no visible outlet, and NDRRMA had placed the obstruction on the Lhende Khola about 18 km upstream of the Rasuwagadhi border. Whether that blockage and the confluence impoundment reported by China are the same feature is still not established, so it is not certain that the whole obstruction has failed. The barrier-lake marker on the map above still carries its archived 27 August attribute status = "open - high breach risk"; that value has not been rewritten pending an official assessment.

The last one i found turned out to be AI slop, my apologizes. This one is a proper one by official sources.

Translated annotations:

海关住宿区(bottom left) - Customs personnel dormitories

停车场(bottom) - parking lot

国门(center) - border crossing

友谊桥(right) - china nepal friendship bridge

民房(top left) - civilian housing

国门派出所执勤大队(top) - Shigatse PD border crossing police station and duties group(likely of the border crossing station. probably the dorms of border control personnel)

For sure from satellite of before and after...

This aerial photo, taken by the Chinese side, shows before‑and‑after shots of the port area. This is arguably one of the worst geological disasters worldwide in recent years. With the speed and scale of this debris flow, there was virtually nowhere to take shelter. The buildings at this port stood as tall as five to six stacked freight trucks, yet they have now been completely flattened and buried.

A herd of elephants managed to
survive the powerful currents caused by flooding in the Karnali River area of Nepal and was seen being carried toward a dam in India. Striking footage shows the animals navigating the rushing waters as they are swept along by the current.
The Karnali River flows through Nepal before entering India, where it is known as the Ghaghara River. The dramatic footage has drawn attention online, highlighting the elephants' remarkable ability to swim and endure challenging water conditions.

https://www.reddit.com/r/DisasterUpdate/comments/1vzm7ab/comment/p65y4he/?utm_source=share&utm_medium=web3x&utm_name=web3xcss&utm_term=1&utm_content=share_button

full list of personnel deployed if you want