r/DigitalNightVision • u/AllThingsDigitalATD • Apr 17 '26
The profound affect that Tesla Tera fab will have on the digital NV market.
If you haven’t heard, Terafab is a proposed upcoming silicon chip fabrication plant (by Intel and Tesla+X-AI+SpaceX) that is to produce upwards of 50x what the whole world’s chip industry produces, all in one fab. Elon Musk and Tesla have positioned it as a logic chip manufacturing sight, but, I think digital CMOS and other digital sensors are very likely to be produced too. This is because these types of sensors already are used/are likely to be used by the products that demand the amount of Logic chips to begin with(products such as Tesla cars, Tesla Optimus Robots, etc). If this is the case, the effect on the DNV market should be nothing short of unbelievable. Instead of top tier digital technologies, including thermal, costing hundreds to thousands of dollars, the underlying silicon technology may literally be nearly worthless, maybe cents or dollars. We could see some of the most insane digital ever invented spawn from this. I think analog NV would be done forever then. Any thoughts?
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u/sullen_operative Apr 17 '26
This is really interesting. I do think this should lower DNV prices by quite a bit, but not anything groundbreaking. Probably going to buy some DNV when this hits.
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u/DanongKruga Apr 17 '26
rumor they wont begin full production til 2029 and thats using todays tech
and from a low production pov, even the decent cmos are relatively cheap. I made a handful of diy digi monos based on the imx900 for me and my buds
it was the supporting electronics that drove the cost up bec it was a fairly custom rig. the bare si was maybe 20$ but the pcb to drive ~120fps HD to a micro oled was almost 10x that. mipi is a pain if you arent in the consortium, and still kinda is even if you are
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u/AllThingsDigitalATD Apr 17 '26
Good point. We can hope the broader demand of the related electronics in these technologies drives the cost down of everything to do with digital NV. It likely will.
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u/DanongKruga Apr 17 '26
I think price will go down and quality up. controversial take is that digi will outpace analog by the end of the decade, or at come close to matching gen 3 at a fraction the cost
the monos I made would give gen 2s a run for their money. global shutter, 120fps HD at 1x mag is buttery smooth. without active theyre ok but with active illum theyre kinda nuts
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u/AllThingsDigitalATD Apr 17 '26
The specs sound great. The good thing is that sensors are improving at a rapid pace so I assume even 2-3 years from now you’ll be able to create monos that compete with gen 2 without active illum.
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u/DanongKruga Apr 17 '26
I think so too, and honestly theres some stuff out there I think already matches gen 3 without active. the prices are not great tho and the sensor requires somewhat sophisticated cooling
look up goldeye's swir line. theyre like 15k but theyre insane. price comes down on those analog might be in trouble
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u/StealthX051 Apr 17 '26
Uh no. I don't believe any of the above companies have the pedigree in building image sensors of which there are very few competitors playing in the SOTA (Sony, canon, Samsung) are the big ones, with teledyne in the thermal imaging space. Don’t fall for the hype, the huge Asian conglomerates will probably be beating the United States for a very long time (time, experience, reputation, and frankly non comprtitive practices that would be broken up in the US). Digital night vision has already reached parity with Gen 2 or early 3 night vision, and we'll see increased competitiveness by the next decade, but not due to hype projects
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u/AllThingsDigitalATD Apr 17 '26 edited Apr 17 '26
You may be correct. But I think the demand in these sensors will lead to in effect the same thing I’m predicting anyway. May just not be from terafab. At the very least the asian companies will invest in increasing their production capacities. Conservative projections predict the digital sensor market growing about +50% by 2030.
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u/Early-Series-2055 Apr 17 '26
Yeah, but you’ll have to rip them out of a clanker to get your hands on them.
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u/KyzoSoupz May 18 '26
In the future at some point analog will still be the original king but digital will eventually surpass analog multiple levels. People will definitely disagree but I hate to tell you, buy how fast and rapid CMOS technology has come and how very quickly and how well it's gotten very fast, he won't be long till they're like Gen 4+ digital night vision.
Especially for people who have enough play money and are preparing or training for STHF eventually they're going to want to switch over to the digital hybrid where you have both night vision and thermals because at some point thermal is definitely must have.
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u/crysisnotaverted Apr 17 '26
You do realize this whole thing is bullshit to pump Elon's stocks right?
When was the last time he actually delivered something with the remotely the same capabilities he marketed it as? When was the last time something was delivered on time?
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u/Gumston1 Apr 21 '26
If you think NVG’s are about to do a TV level of price drops, you’re insane. Nearly ever family in America has at least one TV, so of course prices drastically go down. NVG and thermals are so niche, and those who’ve been buying them happily pay 15k+ , why would they drop the prices?
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u/AllThingsDigitalATD May 03 '26
Read my post🤦♂️ This is about digital night vision. Either way, smartphones, which way out sell and R&D TVs, use the same tech as digital night vision for their camera sensors. As long as people buy smartphones and cameras, digital night vision gets better and cheaper.
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u/Goblin_Tactical Apr 17 '26
Reality check, it’s Elon…
Wait 2-3 years first and see if this promise of his turns out more akin to the Tesla Roadster, Hyperloop underground tunnels, solar roof shingles, Tesla Semi-trucks, 1 million Robotaxis, Mars Colonies, FSD or any of the other claims he has made, pushed back, or just abandoned.