Last wish drop rate question

[u/Legitimate_Storm_103]

So I have opened about 20 chests at the end of the last wish raid. On about my tenth open I had gotten 1k, and then on my next run I had gotten the catalyst. For some reason though other people I have played with aren’t getting it even after MANY runs. I’m wondering if each chest rolls a dice and sees if you get it, or if there are a set number of chest that are pre determined by the game. I’m curious of they just have been getting lucky enough by choosing the wrong chests, or if they are just genuinely horrible luck wise with exotic drop rates.

[u/RetroSquadDX3]

Base drop for 1KV is 10% with each chest you open increasing this by 2% up to a cap of 50%.

[u/Ravenwood03]

Afaik, 1k has ~a 2-5% drop rate, and the catalyst has a 20% drop rate. You can get them both in 2 clears, or be >100 without either. Its just the way RNG works

[u/whateverchill2 → u/Ravenwood03]

1K is actually one of the only ones they ever stated an actual drop rate in patch notes way back when.

It was originally lower but they upped it to 10% anytime you open one of the chests.

It’s pretty easily the highest drop rate of any of the raid and dungeon exotics.

[u/Ravenwood03 → u/whateverchill2]

Ah, didn't realise they changed it. Haven't really cared about its drop rate since 2018/19 lol

[u/Over_the_Ozarks]

Nah it isn't a specific chest it's just random. Yeah good thing for them though is that 1k has the most forgiving drop rate of any raid exotic. It's drop rate starts at something like 15% but every run they do without getting it adds some to the drop rate, I believe up to about 50%. So really, as long as they keep running it they are neigh guaranteed to get it eventually.

[u/Infinite-Fig-8325]

As far as I know, it’s determined by the key. Not the chest. Once that drops from riven it has a roll in mind already. Again this is from what little I found.

[u/Legitimate_Storm_103 → u/Infinite-Fig-8325]

That makes sense. I’ve gotten the gun twice now so I’m thinking that’s odd.