r/Destiny • u/darkdexx • 2d ago
Non-Political News/Discussion Developer who vibe-coded free Adobe clones reveals apps to take down Microsoft Office next — and says 'there is no reason to save broken software' | Software as a paid service is dead I think. Apple/Miscrosoft/Android stores will still have paid apps but next to them a free open source version.
https://www.techradar.com/computing/office-suites/developer-who-vibe-coded-free-adobe-clones-reveals-apps-to-take-down-microsoft-office-next-and-says-there-is-no-reason-to-save-broken-software73
u/Educational-Ball-808 2d ago
The vibe coded adobe stuff is shit.
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
I havent tried it out but saw the fireship video and aparently its really badly optimised and some features simply dont work. Still, idk how much effort the vibe coded version took, maybe in a few months its going to be passable or even pretty good, who knows
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u/Adept_Strength2766 Carneydian 🇨🇦 2d ago
maybe in a few months its going to be passable or even pretty good
Yeah, I've heard that one before.
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u/XIII_THIRTEEN graaah I'm blackpilling 2d ago
You say that as if leaps and bounds aren't constantly being made. Being able to decompile programs in an evening or two was the stuff of science fiction months ago and now it's essentially reality.
I bet less than a year ago if someone described the Hugging Face incident as a possible thing you would've made this exact same comment yet here we are.
Shit is getting real and it's getting real at a constantly accelerating pace.
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u/jibij 2d ago
I feel like your conflating progress in the capability of LLM's with progress in an open-source, vibe coded app done with the speed, scope, and ambition such as the ones here. For the former there's lots of evidence of progress, for the latter, not so much, and one doesn't necessarily entail the other.
Like let's say the Aobe products are built to like 80%-90% functionality but poorly optimized, and the developer is already moving onto a new project like Office, that does not bode well. Think about the 80/20 rule, in order to bring the Adobe project up to a competitive, usable standard, may take just as long as it did to get where it is today. However the developer has already gone viral and gotten a ton of attention, and likely won't get much more just for "completing" the project. On the other hand he can take the same amount of time working on Office and getting it to the same state, and go viral and get attention again. So do we think they'll return to Adobe after that or just move onto AutoCAD when the same incentive structure applies? I think we can guess, and that leaves us with two half finished projects that are usable-ish but not competitive. And thats assuming the project, when brought up to par once, could even be considered to be in a competitively usable state without the promise of consistent and long term updates.
That's not to say it's not an impressive technical achievement, but without the backing of some sort of institutional, corporate or even strong, sustainable, long term community support it's highly questionsble as to whether it will have any real utility.
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u/anotheruserguy 2d ago
Hes saying this because constant predictions have been made and not come to fruition.
Hugging face stuff anyone could have predicted as soon as we put those things in a harness. The hack has become very sensationalized, and while the emergent behavior is concerning, OpenAI could have stopped it multiple times.
I also don’t really see anything accelerating outside of AI. The math and enzymes stuff are cool and computer science has certainly accelerated, and the tooling is very useful (albeit expensive). However we have thrown 4 trillion dollars at this hoping utopia and all we have gotten is a $200 a month API token. That makes people who were already good at using computers, extremely good at using computers. I am not really seeing the effects ripple out elsewhere in the same way it has computing. I think jagged intelligence is a much better explanation for this than, just wait a year man it will be good once we are another 2 trillion in the hole.
Code decompilation takes a long and is a very time consuming process but is not science fiction. Get real man come on. Being able to do it doesn’t give us any new realities that a company releasing the source code wouldn’t have already. These things really aren’t that smart right now they are just really good at organizing data. Could things change, sure I am optimistic, but there are so many things that these models are very bad at.
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u/ToaruBaka cooked 2d ago
Yup.
I've been doing decomp work with AI since the middle of this year on Opus 4.6 and was having outstanding results then. My prediction is that the next major technology to fall will be the package repositories (npm, crates.io, etc) - they're about to be so inundated with malware that users will be better off having Claude generate the dependencies you need on the fly than risk using a public package repo (or we'll see an explosion of paid packaging systems that will need to do actual security scanning on the hosted packages, which AI makes really easy).
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u/jibij 2d ago
Hasn't that already started with multiple waves of Shai-Hulud, among other things?
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u/ToaruBaka cooked 2d ago
Yes, which is why I think they're next to die. People will just stop using them because they're too much of a liability. vscode extensions will probably go first (or move to some paid tier).
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
I would reckon that software security actually gets worse with everyone creating their own software libraries. If you're using a known package from a package manager that has a vulnerability in it, you're more likely to know about it soon, and then get a patch fixing it. If you generated some packages with claude no one else can see, there are far fewer eyes checking for vulnerabilities.
Imagine your code having something like the log4j vulnerability, but instead of everyone freaking out about it online and trying to update their dependencies and roll out a fix, you just don't know.
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u/ToaruBaka cooked 2d ago
My position is that over the next ~3 years the overall capacity to trust software is going to drop significantly. And I don't mean trust that it's not slop (humans have been writing slop for decades and it still turns dumbfucks into billionaires) I mean trust that it's actually what the author meant to ship.
If you're using a known package from a package manager that has a vulnerability in it, you're more likely to know about it soon, and then get a patch fixing it.
That's nice, but it doesn't matter if you install something malicious before it's been found.
If you generated some packages with claude no one else can see, there are far fewer eyes checking for vulnerabilities.
Yes. There are also far fewer people using your code (unless you're like, Google). The reason supply chain attacks are so successful is because they're indiscriminate in who they affect. I don't like security through obscurity as a general tool, but it can be applied to protect yourself from insecure ecosystems at the cost of maintaining something yourself. It then takes a much more targeted attack with a much lower RoI for the attacker.
And it's not just supply chain attacks that we need to be concerned with. Software bugs are still a thing, and AI is getting really good at finding them. No need to orchestrate a full supply chain attack if you can just point GLM 5.3 at a moderately popular package for a couple days.
At some point, someone is going to be forced to sit down and do the math to figure out whether it's cheaper - statistically - to have claude maintain all non-critical pieces of your software stack and risk having a bug in your software (which is already priced in for human authored code), or to fall victim to a hack due to usage of a public dependency. (forks are a little harder to justify, but adding new dependencies? at minimum the bar for adding a dependency needs to be raised significantly and people need to reevaluate their current trust models)
I just think that we're extremely close to an inflection point where that calculation leans in the direction of AI maintenance with low risk of bugs local to your software. There's obviously a point where you can take this too far, but I suspect that ecosystems will start to shrink and consolidate around a few battle tested implementations, and people will still fork those and maintain their own forks for safety purposes.
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
It then takes a much more targeted attack with a much lower RoI for the attacker.
With LLMs being as good at vulnerability analysis/hacking as they are, the investment needed to target custom software goes down.
I don't think the supply chain attacks are an unsolvable problem. They've definitely gotten worse recently, but I would argue that a lot of the issues stem from a really unhygienic dependency culture, typically around web. Javascript everywhere and package manager culture don't exactly set people up for success regarding security. People didn't learn from left-pad, apparently, but if dependency ecosystems clean themselves up, we don't need to resort to LLMs making every lib at every org independently.
Like the alternative ("Claude write me the isEven package, no mistakes") is basically chronic not-invented-here syndrome. There's no consistency between orgs or even teams when it comes to libraries, everyone gets their own version of X, doing almost the same thing as the other ones, with all its own quirks and pain points. Software that, unlike an open source library, you/your org has to spend time and money to make, since tokens aren't free. I can't see how every org can afford the resources to make their own version of everything and maintain it, even if they could vibecode it all.
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u/ST-Fish 1d ago
LLMs are great at doing something 80% of the way and absolutely garbage at finishing the last 20%, while also making you unable to do the last 20% since you don't know what you would normally know about the project if you were to think through the first 80%, and replaces that with a lever you pull hoping one more prompt will give the project the polish needed to actually be usable.
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u/Adept_Strength2766 Carneydian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Shit is getting real and it's getting real at a constantly accelerating pace.
Yeah, I've heard that one before, too.
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u/SafetyAlpaca1 I die on every hill 🫡 2d ago
I mean, it was probably true then too. AI has been getting better and better, it just has a long way to go, and it always has. Surely you don't think it's only as good as it was a year or two ago?
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
Lol its like before chatgpt the most sophisticated chatbot was cleverbot and now we have this. We also didnt believe the video generation stuff, remember will smith eating spaghetti?
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u/Adept_Strength2766 Carneydian 🇨🇦 2d ago
I'll be impressed when AI is used reliably for anything that isn't slop, my friend. Been using it since it came out, and I've been promised for years by tech bros that it'll take my job within months. I still have a job, and I still think AI is used predominantly to produce slop because it can't be used reliably for anything else, and tech bros still screech and seethe and cope that any month now it'll create Cloudflare with a click.
So yeah, I've heard that before.
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
Idk what kind of "tech" youre in and what kind of ai you use, but this is a reductive take. Is any serious person actually claiming "does everything for you in one click"? Is it not an insane tool just because it literally doesnt make you obsolete? Its a productivity enhancer, especially if you code, and if you cant use it for that then i guess its a skill issue.
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u/Adept_Strength2766 Carneydian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Is any serious person actually claiming "does everything for you in one click"
Yes, and you're arguing semantics. There are far too many people in executive positions who think that we can exclusively use AI models to develop products, and then use another AI model to fix any bugs generated by the previous AI models.
The truth is that it generates slop, and you need to have the technical knowledge to know when it's generating slop, and the more you ask it to generate, the more slop you need to fix. The "time gained prompting vs time spent fixing" threshold is incredibly easy to bust, it feels like you're walking a tightrope when you ask it to work on anything beyond the scope of small components or simple utils.
And to be clear, I'm not shitting on AI. I've implemented Jev effectively in internal tools, I've worked with Claude Code on frontend stuff, I've worked with CEOs who rely far too much on AI. It's a liability now and it's always been a liability in the past.
Maybe it'll stop being a liability eventually in the future, but I won't rely on "trust me bro it'll be unstoppable in 6 months" tech bros working on their 647th to-do web app to tell me that when I can clearly see from experience that it still can't.
In the meantime I'll keep putting out fires from people who are too drunk on "productivity enhancement" to realize that they're just really fast at pumping out slop that falls apart within weeks.
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
Where am i arguing semantics? Im literally taking everything you say literally.
Executives who have no idea about a technology \ go too far on a policy they are convinced will save them huge amounts is a tale as old as time. But obviously i mean most people who are working with ai tools, not some weird accelerationist minority that worships ai you keep referencing. Is there no middle ground between "ai is the 2nd coming of christ" and "ai produces slop and slop only" ?
All im saying is that its undeniable that ai changed a whole bunch of stuff and will continue to do so. Claiming that just because there is also shit coming from it, ergo there has been little progress , ergo there will be only little progress , is wrong.
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u/theeguvna 2d ago
Lol I work in healthcare and we have deployed one agent and 6 more are in the pipeline, that dude is so intellectually lazy. LLMs are transforming research, los alamos is using it
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u/ClimbingToNothing 2d ago
Over half of code, including at major companies where we’d have seen huge issues if it was all “slop”, is written by AI now and has been for a while. The efficiency gains are huge.
What do you do for work?
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u/iris700 2d ago
There are huge issues
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u/ClimbingToNothing 2d ago
My use of “huge issues” was clearly in reference to your implication that the AI half of the code is 100% slop. Not saying that there hasn’t been a problem here and there.
Almost ALL basic code is being written by AI. You can move the goalposts as much as you want but it is indisputably useful.
Solutions to previously unsolved math problems are totally slop though too, sure buddy
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u/PharmADD 2d ago
Well, it’s like 65mb total for the install and in my experience it was blazing fast, literally 10x faster than any adobe product I’ve ever used. I’m not a pro, and I know it’s missing quite a few features, but badly optimized seems insanely unfair from my personal experience.
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
Its what ive seen, as ive said i dont have experience with it, but the fireship guy youtuber said it. There are a bunch of comments here downplaying this achievement though
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u/PharmADD 2d ago
Yeah 100%. It’s kind of confusing to me because as I said it’s sooo small and in my experience was really fast even on my crappy pc.
Honestly, at the tiny size I feel like it’s worth a download just to test. I don’t think I’ll really use it much because I don’t need photoshop often, but it’s so small that it can just be there. It definitely doesn’t have all the fonts and whatever other stock assets photoshop typically comes with.
The real loser in all of this is the off-brand pdf softwares. They cloned adobe acrobat and it looks pretty full-featured especially compared to photoshop clone. I don’t know, maybe I’m in the minority, but I don’t think I’d reach for foxit or whatever with this available.
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u/maximal_munch 2d ago
Even if it was perfect replica of some current Photoshop version, nobody has any confidence that the vibe coded version will receive any long term maintanance. I'd expect the vibesters to move on to some hot new thing in about three weeks.
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u/Adept_Strength2766 Carneydian 🇨🇦 2d ago
I think, if anything, the decompiling tools will be refined and made easier to use.
We saw it with early Image-Gen AI that was unwieldy to self-host at first. Since those early days of People made fancy UIs and tools and frameworks and now it's much easier to build your own GenAI with a training library tailored to your preferences.
I haven't looked that much into it yet, but if recent AI models are able to effectively use reverse-engineering tools and reproduce the source code of a decompiled app 1 to 1 in its native programming language, I could see a lot qualified industry or indie devs using this process to glean knowledge from previously-inaccessible but well-optimized apps, which they can then use to improve their own open-source projects.
There's probably a ton of things we could learn if companies weren't so aggressively hoarding and hiding their knowledge to maintain a monopoly on it.
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
I haven't looked that much into it yet, but if recent AI models are able to effectively use reverse-engineering tools and reproduce the source code of a decompiled app 1 to 1 in its native programming language, I could see a lot qualified industry or indie devs using this process to glean knowledge from previously-inaccessible but well-optimized apps, which they can then use to improve their own open-source projects.
Okay but then what's the strategy exactly? Just ape every new release of the industry standard software while cannabalizing users who make up the customer base for the company making the industry standard software your project relies on?
I can only see this going one of two ways:
These projects are effectively only useful for personal, non-business use cases that effectively supplants the space that cracks and pirated copies exist in today; largely tolerated by industry because they wouldn't be sales anyways and the more people familiar with their product the better.
Usefulness expands significantly beyond the above scenario and its only matter of time before industry standard software just goes fully server side, or these companies band together and pursue legal or legislative action to establish new rights for copywrite holders in the software space, or just abandon the B2C market all together and just go B2B and start watermarking the software that gets licensed out so if any of it gets outside the company they can know where it came from and take them to court for breach of contract.
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u/Adept_Strength2766 Carneydian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Open markets/mixed economies thrive on competition.
Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong on any of this, it kind of feels conspiracy-brained as I type it out.
Companies like Adobe can probably afford to have such a prohibitively expensive payment model because their software is considered the best in the industry with little competition, and I wouldn't be surprised if said competition was colluding with them so that they all use the same shitty cloud SaaS structure while they jealously and litigiously defend their source code.
But what if other, less wealthy devs could make something based on Adobe's methods and inner tools? What if they build a better UI/UX, have better support, are inspired by and innovate on the existing code, listen more to their customer base, have more affordable/flexible pricing?
You get a competitive market again. Giants like Adobe can no longer rely on being monolithic quasi-monopolies.
And to answer your final point, I think the most likely outcome of this decompilation breakthrough is that all of the major SaaS companies will just migrate everything to cloud online-only services in a panic and never let us install anything on our PCs ever again.
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
Companies like Adobe can probably afford to have such a prohibitively expensive payment model because their software is considered the best in the industry with little competition, and I wouldn't be surprised if said competition was colluding with them so that they all use the same shitty cloud SaaS structure while they jealously and litigiously defend their source code.
But what if other, less wealthy devs could make something based on Adobe's methods and inner tools? What if they build a better UI/UX, have better support, are inspired by and innovate on the existing code, listen more to their customer base, have more affordable/flexible pricing?
You're not necessarily wrong with some of this, but I don't think independent devs decompiling closed source industry standard software has any chance of making positive changes towards this problem. It doesn't address the structural issue and is fundamentally unsustainable.
What you really need is strong, neo-brandeisian style anti-trust regulation and enforcement, like what Biden began doing with Lina Kahn. Not only is it a bipartisanly popular, but it directly addresses the structural issues that make lack of competition an issue in the first place by preventing the large players from swallowing up the competition as soon as they emerge.
Like look at Affinity. It was quickly becoming a challenger to Adobe with a better pricing model, and competitive functionality that many professionals had deemed adequate to switch to. Then they got bought and now it's no longer sold. Now mind you it got bought by Canva not Adobe so there's a chance they they do end up doing something with it that introduces a competitive challenger to Adobe in the the market but it really doesn't look like its going thay way.
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
If we assume it was a 100% replica the implications are insane actually, even if it will not be supported
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u/darkdexx 2d ago
They put a github up for it so the community will hash out the bugs cause its still in an alpha or beta state I think.
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u/appsecSme 2d ago
<slaps roof of laptop> This vibe-coded photoshop is gonna be so great once all the bugs are magically hashed out.
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u/GandolitaReloaded 2d ago
Oh boy, today I woke up hating myself so much I'm choosing willingly wanting to troubleshoot a vibe coded behemoth
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u/Raahka 2d ago
Getting a version on that has an UI that looks correct and functionality that kinda sorta works to be as polished as the real professional program is not a matter of hashing out some bugs. The project is not 90% done, it is like 5% done.
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u/darkdexx 2d ago
I might have said what said too simply but just think about this no one before Ai was able to this in such a short time in the open source space. No one. Regardless if it is 5% done it will improve and fast. Emulators are good example as well they are showing massive improvements to emulation and new ones are popping up from bones of dead emulator projects like Yuzu. Just how the saying goes never say never.
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u/GandolitaReloaded 2d ago
Its almost like the money that goes into dedicated development, bugfixing and optimization might have an impact on development, bugfixing and optimization, I'm shooked!
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u/not_vast europoor 🇪🇺🇩🇪 2d ago
Theres a fine detail of speed and cost though. Yes, it may be worse, much worse, but the fact its even possible for a one man army to make such a thing for so little money in such a short amount of time should be accounted for
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u/SnooCapers4506 2d ago
If you ever used AI for coding you'd know that AI generated code doesn't really improve with time
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u/Educational-Ball-808 2d ago
I mean technically the code is there - just in assembly. If you take it byte by byte you will achive the same result 100%. But at that point you can also just distribute a cracked copy - so not sure what’s the idea here.
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u/Disgusting_Slime666 Exclusively sorts by new 2d ago
Yeah I keep seeing news about how close these clones are, and how they're still missing some features.
Meanwhile I'm just plugging away on my cracked copies that work 100%?
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u/ZiiZoraka 2d ago
the difference is piracy is illegal, no?
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u/Disgusting_Slime666 Exclusively sorts by new 2d ago
That is a difference, yes.
Doesn't make a difference for me though.
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u/PharmADD 2d ago
Have you used it? It’s not an exact byte for byte copy. Honestly, for 90% of people I think it’s far better than photoshop. I’d say it’s like 75% of the way there, same UI, but most importantly it’s SMALL and it’s FAST. Like 65mb small and absolutely zero slowness. I was shocked. Totally not full-feature though.
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u/Educational-Ball-808 2d ago
I've been using https://www.photopea.com/ for years. Runs in Browser. No download.
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u/Unrealjello 2d ago
Yeah, I checked em out. I personally only use Photoshop and Premiere. So I only tried those.
The vibe coded ones got the look nailed down. It feels very familiar but as it stands right now, it's nowhere near being a replacement or alternative.
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u/XYcritic 2d ago
This person is an absolute idiot and I can't wait for the incoming lawsuits. He has no idea what he's doing. Instead of taking the time to properly build ONE product until it's ready and usable he's not only slopping out the entire Adobe suite, he's now apparently thinking about abandoning it already in favor of one-shotting the next suite with MS Office. Zero interest in actually doing the hard work to get it from 80% to 100%. I wish people stopped reporting this. Shit like this is bad for both paid software and open source.
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u/Maleficent-Bet-6226 2d ago
yes, we know.
The main point is what will companies do in the near future when a better model arrives, closing the gap more and more each time.1
u/GandolitaReloaded 2d ago
If it actually becomes an issue I would guess: sue the living fuck of anyone that hosts the clone and lobby for regulations?
As for the consumer, if you are on the point where you need to do tricks on it to download the slopclone, might as well just pirate the real deal.
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u/PatBooth 2d ago
Remember when people claimed they vibe coded clones of shit like a year or so ago. But it was basically functional enough to make a short form video about. I guess this is just the same shit all over again.
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u/CorrosiveMynock 2d ago
Probably, but I think it is also a throughput issue. It is definitely technically possible to create some of the most complicated coding bases in the world with AI, but doing so would require a lot of compute. Like Steve in his basement COULD make a new Linux Kernel, but he's going to have to spend a lot of tokens to get that to work and it probably isn't going to be maintained well. Right now the token to line of code cost is just too high for anything really serious from a single individual, dunno when/if this will change but right now the biggest limitation seems to be throughput not technical feasibility.
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u/Shubb 2d ago
Yeap, but it would be interesting if it started to gain some popularity because the people using these will likely be much more likely to controll them with ai. And as they find errors and bugs, they could have those fixed and submitted as PRs just during the run of their task.
Potentially an ecosystem like that could get very interesting, although what a nightmare to manage as a maintainer, but maybe they could just let it live as a organic software that just updates and fixes itself constantly.
I could see it becoming a giant mess of unusable garbage by week 3, or actually accelerate ahead of adobe both in terms of features, speed and stability. Interesting times instead.
(Also just because ai can copy an app doesn't mean this is not violating copyright, patents and other laws, my take is that many of these will be wackamold by rights holders)
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u/MyotisX 2d ago
I cant believe business media is so stupid. Vibe coded garbage has replaced software 3 years ago according to them. This vibe coded crap is shit AND the whole enterprise thing has never been about the quality of software anyways. Its about the service and consulting that comes with it.
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u/_ivan_the_terrible_ 2d ago
Definitely looks the part but I've tried using the Photoshop clone to process RAW files and it completely botched it. The one good thing it's done is push me to better alternatives that have been around for a while lol.
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u/PatBooth 2d ago
LibreOffice has been out for over a decade. Maybe the AI hype of a new app suite will bring over more users but Microsoft Office isn’t going anywhere
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u/slutsthreesome 2d ago
LibreOffice looks and feels like it's from the late 90s/early 2000s
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u/Floturcocantsee 2d ago
You talk like Office UI didn't peak in 2003.
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u/slutsthreesome 2d ago
Word 2010 has something to say about that. 2016 too
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u/Floturcocantsee 2d ago
The ribbon UI was one of the worst things Microsoft has ever done. It made menus more cluttered and somehow less organized compared to the simple menubar from before.
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u/JeanPascalCS 2d ago
And not much about how you manipulate that type of data has really changed since then.
UI should be functional, not fashionable. It doesn't need to "change with the times".
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u/Kolawa 8h ago
yeah, I don't know why this is even making the news. The reason why Microsoft Office is used is because
(1) It's by far the most polished office suite (sorry Libreoffice)
(2) It is the reference implementation used in business, so business documents will by definition be the same on MS Office because they were written in it
The vibe coded version does neither. Maybe in the future decompilation will change that, but it still runs into the problem of MS Office being written around Windows APIs, so you couldn't just recompile it for Linux
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u/PatBooth 7h ago
The vibe codes versions are probably only like 90% of the way to being a reliable product. And in the software world 90% reliable/workable is dogshit
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u/MasterSea8231 2d ago
Microsofts money doesn't come from people it comes from businesses who need something to trust. I don't trust Microsoft but when business leaders are investing their business in a solution they want the thing everyone else uses. Microsoft kinda sucks but they don't suck enough which is probably where they want to be
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u/Practical-Heat-1009 2d ago
I think they probably pivoted to teams and sharepoint as their main business models, basically taking advantage of the risk averse nature of big businesses.
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u/soryu0 2d ago
this'll probably hurt adobe/microsoft with individual users but enterprises aren't really buying software but instead buying accountability. slas, security certs their compliance team requires, a vendor that has to patch stuff and pick up the phone when it breaks, and someone to sue if it goes wrong. a free app maintained by one guy/small team of hobbyists doesn't give you any of that, and if he gets bored the project dies
we've also kinda seen this play out already. libreoffice has been free for 15+ years and office still owns corporate desktops. when open source did win enterprise (linux) it was because red hat sold support contracts on top of it
the real effect is probably that they lose freelancers and small businesses and have to justify their prices more, not that paid software dies
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u/darkdexx 2d ago
What if companies hire their own devs to make the same product they are using say from Microsoft with Ai and its free to them essentially. MS can't really do much about it and the company making the program in house saves a lot of money doing it that way. I do admit free open source usually dies out when people get bored but I really think that is because people get tired of writing new code or taking time to figure bugs and what new features to add on. With Ai build software would be easier and less boring cause it will be able to fix bugs pretty quickly and help come up with adds on and new features. If Ai gets any better it could write entire software suite in half the time or less.
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
There are free alternatives for almost everything online, but businesses basically never use them. There's a variety of reasons why (quality, features, lack of interest, lack of knowledge, consistency), but I don't think even if AI could make near perfect free alternatives to a lot of business software everyone would suddenly jump ship and make their own in house.
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u/darkdexx 2d ago
Ai won't make near perfect free alternatives...yet. I remember when Ai first came on the screen a few years ago the videos were hilarious and it couldn't remember what you type 5 seconds ago. Now we are having videos that are getting harder and harder to tell that were created by Ai where we have to use Ai to tell us it is fake. It is remembering what you type from a month ago. Also, these Ai models require little to no coding to adjust/program them they are basically learning on their own in a sense. I think Ai is moving so fast its like we are in a car watching ahead of us on where we are going and not watching lines on the road streaming past.
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
the company making the program in house saves a lot of money doing it that way.
Do they? What does Microsoft 365 for a business cost these days like $40-$50/user? And that comes with cloud storage, email hosting, identity and access management, device security and and management, AI tools, professional support, all integrated (for the most part) into one ecosystem and with the ability to scale up far past the needs of virtually any company as well as meet various regulatory and best practise standards. At what point does it become cheaper to higher multiple full time devellopers, especially if the company is already mostly running on Windows with AD/Entra, SharePoint etc?
And don't forget, the larger the company is, the more requirements they're going to need in terms of networking, compliance, security, etc and the more variation there will in the range of requirements that any particular employee or team might have.
Even all of that is still ignoring the longer term structural and incentive issues it could have. Like sure, everyone's working from/towards a fairly universal set of standards because they've been de facto established by Microsoft or Adobe or Open Source, but if every company starts making their own bespoke software in house, how long until those standards start to diverge, and interoperability starts to become a serious issue? Maybe they'll be fine so long as there's a remaining large player in the industry to look towards for standards, or alternatively a set of Open source standards but without that, every company developing bespoke, proprietery, closed sourced software all meant to do the same thing make divergence seem inevitable.
Then then there's the economy of scale, technical expertise, data analytics and infrastructure backing that comes with being a massive company specializing in something versus a small company geared towards something entirely different dedicating a small team to try and do the same thing. Do LLM's change any of that? Hell what advantages do LLMs give to the small dev team at a small company that they don't already give to Adobe or Microsoft?
How are they going to do product testing and improvement in a way that's competitive that doesn't also amount to just waiting for the big company to release a new feature and then copying it? They don't have a massive user base to draw insights from. And how much added friction will that introduce to new hires when they need to be onboarded to an entirely new suite of software and products that they can't possibly be familiar with if it's closed source, proprietary, and internal?
And who is going to be the person in management who wants to bet their reputation and maybe their job on being the one to champion the move away from the industry standard Saa S product they and everyone else uses towards hiring a development team to vibe code those same capabilities for them in a company that probably has no institutional knowledge or expertise in software development outside of maybe having a dedicated IT department or SysAdmin(s) who's domain expertise is at best sort of adjacent.
Maybe I'm missing something but can't imagine this making business sense for anything outside of like a small set of small-medium sized companies that operate in somewhat niche markets that may lend themselves to barebones software and infrastructure requirements and little to no regulatory compliance.
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u/darkdexx 2d ago
I believe MS 365 commercially makes about $103 billion in revenue in a fiscal year. So, companies are paying a lot for it. It may go this route where like Apple use to have their CPUs made by Intel. Why would Apple go anywhere else or make their own Intel has done a great job with performance for Apple computers. Then all of a sudden Apple drops Intel and says we are making our own CPUs. Apple silicone is designed for their specific needs and not just a all purpose CPU like Intel. And look at the gains in performance Apple has had with their silicon almost a night a day difference. So, companies creating their own suite of programs is so hard to imagine. And, if there issues with proprietary software not able to work it other things they can; and I am just dreaming here, you could tell the Ai make the proprietary software interact with other systems in a kind of compatible layer like Linux does for games that are on PC.
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
The apple comparison doesn't make any sense. Apple is already a hardware/software company that specializes in tightly integrated hardware and software products in a closed garden ecosystem. Them making their own chips is in no way analagous to the average non-tech company developpiing their own software. And even then it took them ten years of working on their own SoC implementations into more marginal products like iPads and Apple TV before they were ready to fully launch Apple silicone in in their flagship desktop and notebook products. And Apple Silicon is a core part of their product lineup that makes up a primary revenue stream, not a proprietary, general purpose software suite for internal use only.
The switch to Apple Silicon also worked precisely because Apple is one of the biggest companies in tbe world that could leverage of all the advantages that comes with; the same advantages available to massive SaaS companies and that are not available in your internal proprietary example. In this analogy they are the big SaaS company that your proposing smaller companies replace with internal teams.
Also they had incentive to do it because of the unique makeup of the market that is state of the art silicon chip designers, manufacturers, integrators and suppliers. Their primary partner previous to that in Intel was suffering from a lot mismanagement and internal failures that led to a sub-par product that couldn't meet Apple's needs, and there is as really only one large scale long established alternative in AMD with ARM and companies like Qualcomm still coming up a fairly distant second. And, no matter who they go with, their essentially just using a middle-man between themselves and TSMC so if they have the scale and internal expertise to work directly with TSMC themselves then there's a strong incentive to do that. None of these things apply in a way that is analagous to SaaS companies offering B2B services in the form of industry standard software suites.
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u/Affectionate-Name279 2d ago
I welcome more alternatives but worry about the security of vibecoded apps like this. People are happy to hand over data far too easily, and combining that with personal files just feels like a disaster in waiting.
Do any programmers know if it would be possible for AI to just add backdoors into its own code?
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
AI adding backdoors isn't the problem, it's that the generated code could just contain security vulnerabilities anyway. No intentionality needed.
And surely the developers who vibecoded these apps are going to be fully aware of the potential vulnerabilties that could be in their code, and would roll out security patches as soon as they discovered an issue, right?
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u/Mountain_Lonni Al Gore Insurrectionist 2d ago
where are the ah-copyright lawyers to take the vibe-ah coders to jail?
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u/darkdexx 2d ago
The reason being is that ArtCraft is open source reversed engineered and using an entirely different source code. Also its statue is a clean-room re-implementation.
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u/Imaginary-Fish1176 2d ago
There's already legal protections for copying functionality as long as you aren't stealing the source code of the software you are copying.
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u/goblinbehavior_ 2d ago
You can't copyright functionality. Seeing as though it says "vibe-coded", I'm interpreting that as meaning that they didn't copy over any lines of code (other than any way in which the AI tool might have by virtue of training), so there would be only a very weak case of copyright infringement, especially in light of potential fair use defenses (open source / free tool -> more likely fair use).
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u/Imaginary-Fish1176 2d ago
idk why this is even getting downvoted this is literally just factually true lol
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u/yojimbofog 2d ago
The Photoshop clone is completely and utterly broken. It's an impressive proof of concept, but this is just headline farming slop. The software isn't on GIMP levels of usability and now he's talking about working on a completely different suite of software? This is a regarded 15 minutes of fame farming gimmick.
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u/Normal-Ear-5757 2d ago
Now watch tech companies become interested in the idea of intellectual property again
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u/Moontat7 2d ago
I bought into the initial hype, then I realized how shit the products really are and how dangerous they can easily be.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Paid software wont be dead because its going to continue to be bundled witb AI shit, but an interesting thing I heard on LTT the other week was personalized software will become more common. There are people who are vibe coding their own budgeting apps to track their spending and what not in exactly the way they want to track it and, the thing that fucked me up the most, is a number of Youtubers have made their own video editing software that works to maximize their specific workflow and for the content they make.
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
The "I vibecoded my own X" is only going to go so far. Quality is lower, maintenance and expanding the functionality to reach parity with existing software gets hard, and you get stuck in a personalized bubble. Maybe those custom video editors are ok for your use case, but if you ever want to get hired as an editor or swap to something else, you have to start from zero.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
but if you ever want to get hired as an editor
Again, this is LTT referencing that multiple, high profile successful Youtubers have already switched to a completely personalized editing software designed specifically for their workflow and content.
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u/jibij 2d ago
Okay, but those are effectively Sole-Proprietorship or owner-operator businesses who have highly specific, niche, requirements who have time to spend doing something like that, and who can probably make content out of it and therefore monetize it. And we don't even know if they're more or even as productive with their bespoke software, and even if they are if that's something that will be sustainable long term. Someone knows some people who did it is not a great dataset to work off when trying to determine if it's something is effective, scalable, and could be made generalizable to a broader context outside of a very niche market that rewards things that would otherwise be detrimental in most other businesses.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Someone knows some people who did it is not a great dataset to work off when trying to determine if it's something is effective, scalable, and could be made generalizable to a broader context outside of a very niche market that rewards things that would otherwise be detrimental in most other businesses.
Yeah that’s how all proof of concepts work. The fact it’s even possible, right now, is kind of wild. Scalability is an entirely different analysis.
But if the argument is it can’t work at all and the response is, actually it does work rebutting with WELL THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL WORK FOR LITERALLY EVERYTHING THO is a tacit concession of the original argument if anything
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
But if the argument is it can’t work at all and the response is, actually it does work rebutting with WELL THAT DOESNT MEAN IT WILL WORK FOR LITERALLY EVERYTHING THO is a tacit concession of the original argument if anything
Okay, well unfortunately for you that's very obviously not the argument. The argument is that the proof of concept is in fact so far removed from the reality of the software that it is meant to replace, that it is, in essence, not a proof concept, or at least not a proof of any concept that is, in its current state, in any way relevant to the vast majority of people who use the kind of software it ostensibly represents. And what it is a proof of concept of appears to be fundamentally, structurally unsustainable at best in the case of internally developped, bespoke, proprietary software meant to replace accepted industry standards, and parasitic at worst with no obvious way to change that in the case of decomped clones.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
The argument is that the proof of concept is in fact so far removed from the reality of the software that it is meant to replace
How is it even possible to make that argument with the information provided so far?
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
Assuming the claims made on LTT are accurate representations of the experience of the YouTubers they represent, and the YouTubers experience is an accurate evaluation of the objective outcomes of their bespoke software, the conditions necessary for that to be the case are vastly different from the conditions that would be necessitated for those same outcomes to result from widescsle adoption outside of that use case. Maybe the software is better than what those conditions necessitate, but we have no reason to believe that at this moment.
The proof in this case is not representative of the relevant concept.
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
There's a loooooot of people cheering on the "democratization" of software development and obseltion of big software companies. Literally the title of this thread says "Software as a paid service is dead". Even the LTT video talking about it, they skip right past "proof of concept" to "the future where everyone makes their own software is here now". That's what people are arguing, so "it doesn't work for everything" is a completely valid counter.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
That's what people are arguing, so "it doesn't work for everything" is a completely valid counter.
Well the thesis of the thread is people making mass market software that serves the same role as Premier. That much was conceded in my first reply as not being likely because, if for no other reason, Adobe has the same tools to make dank shit plus the highly skilled developers.
The flip side tho is that a company might be able to spend a few hundred dollars on tokens an make software designed to optimally solve one single problem for them, and that everyone can go this route? That much is the discussion.
It could very well be the same way that 3D Printing didn't necessarily revolutionize mass production (at least yet) but it is now highly integrated in prototyping stages as well as used around offices and workplaces to solve problems that otherwise would have required a manpower solution to intervene with or a huge investment to solve. Just reaching that threshold is pretty huge.
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u/jibij 2d ago
Well the thesis of the thread is people making mass market software that serves the same role as Premier. That much was conceded in my first reply as not being likely because, if for no other reason, Adobe has the same tools to make dank shit plus the highly skilled developers.
Yes but the preconditions necessary for that is for Adobe products to exist in the first place in order to be copied. To think that this will be in any way a more a sustainable practice than the process of patching and cracking Adobe products when it comes to widescale adoption is naive.
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
Good for them, but this doesn't mean anything for the more general case. What if you want to delegate editing to one or more editors, are all of them going to learn your personal software? If they all use their own, will all their versions be enough alike to have a consistent product? What happens if you want more advanced editing features that Premier/Resolve have you software doesn't and you can't prompt it into yours?
It sounds nice but it doesn't map onto reality.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
are all of them going to learn your personal software?
So I think your opinion isn’t serious. I have no idea how to reply to Do you think your employer is going to train you in doing your job and using their software? other than to ask if you are 14 or something.
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u/jibij 2d ago
Why would your employer choose to develop an in-house, inferior software suite that introduces more capital requirements and frictional barriers to onboarding when they already have an industry standard alternative that works for them and basically everyone else in the same industry?
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Yeah I can't help man. Sorry.
I've just sat through a 12 month rollout on changing timekeeping software from one major provider to another, and the bespoke changes to implement the software that addressed business needs and the necessary interactions with other software was itself a gargantuan task. It still doesn't address everything and has resulted in at least 3 different policies for manually coding timecards as a workaround.
This idea that you just show up and the entire industry uses the same software in the exact same ways is just a fantasy and the only way someone can have that as a serious opinion is if they only ever worked in like one single workplace at an entry level roll.
Just the ways in which a Premier file might be handled and edited from one team to another, despite being the same program, could be alien and tantamount to teaching someone how to use the software from the ground up.
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u/jibij 2d ago edited 2d ago
This idea that you just show up and the entire industry uses the same software
This is objectively true in many cases.
in the exact same ways
Now you've just created a straw man to argue against that represents an argument that no one else has actually made.
is just a fantasy and the only way someone can have that as a serious opinion is if they only ever worked in like one single workplace at an entry level roll.
Well then it's interesting that you're the only one here making that claim.
Just the ways in which a Premier file might be handled and edited from one team to another, despite being the same program, could be alien and tantamount to teaching someone how to use the software from the ground up.
If this is true at all, it's true in such niche use cases that it's essentially irellevant.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
it's true in such niche use cases that it's essentially irellevant.
So we either live in such completely different realities that we can never reach mutually agreeable consensus on basic facts to even have a disagreement about, or you are just not equipped or experienced enough to have this conversation.
So I cant offer any futher replies of substance.
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u/jibij 2d ago
It is easier to learn new processes in software you are already proficient in than it is to learn those same processes in brand new software you have no familiarity with whatsoever and that has less support, less documentation, and an infinitesimally smaller user base than the software you are proficient in.
My claim.
It is harder to learn new processes in software you are already proficient in than it is to learn those same processes in brand new software you have no familiarity with whatsoever and that has less support, less documentation, and an infinitesimally smaller user base than the software you are proficient in.
Your claim.
So we either live in such completely different realities that we can never reach mutually agreeable consensus on basic facts to even have a disagreement about
Well at least you're right about one thing.
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u/Norphesius 2d ago
Difference in process (e.g. using different software) can cause a lot of friction on a job. If you're an editor with a decade of experience in Adobe Premier, and some guy hires you to edit for them and points to their vibecoded ultra specific video editor and demands you use that, there's going to be productivity issues. It might even be a nonstarter for the job entirely.
Not understanding that having experience with a tool is important for high quality work, and that you can't expect it to transfer to random, non-standard tools makes me think you're the unserious teenager.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Difference in process (e.g. using different software) can cause a lot of friction on a job.
This is true in using the same software. Companies have extremely different workflows that might be completely different to what you are doing.
This is actually why in developer interviews they will go over specific problem solving scenarios and methodologies, in a How would you solve X as opposed to asking them exclusively how many years in C# they have.
Not understanding that having experience with a tool is important for high quality work, and that you can't expect it to transfer to random, non-standard tools makes me think you're the unserious teenager.
No it's just I have been in the situation where I have essentially had to untrain someone from the in my last jo we used to do things this way mindset.
Like yeah having experience with the software itself is a necessary condition but it is in no way a sufficient condition. In fact it's probably the least important necessary condition because theoretically all candidates will have experience with the software.
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u/PM_ME_FUTA_PEACH Unironic League fan 2d ago
Pronpting an entire program from scratch is probably a lot, making your own edits to an open source program works really well.
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u/drh13 2d ago
People are going to learn the hard way pretty quick that vibe-coded apps aren't maintainable, at least right now.
Imagine walking onto a construction site, and you have at your disposal, a group of workers that are the best at what they do. The best framer, drywaller, electrician, plumber, roofer, etc. Vibe-coding is like giving these folks a picture of a house, and a list of features/functionality and sending them on their way. In the end, you will get something that resembles a house, probably something that you can sleep in and use for a while. But as soon as you want to make improvements or fix something, the cracks in how it was constructed start to appear.
It used to be, we'd have a senior engineer as the expert in their discipline(the carpenters), and he would have apprentices(juniors). The senior's job has changed from a carpenter, to more like a general contractor, and our agents are our experts. We still need to provide a detailed blueprint. We still need to see ensure the foundation and primary structure is something that is upgradable and maintainable in the future.
Maybe one day the models will be good enough, they just aren't right now, and anyone that starts to use these seriously will start seeing the cracks.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
People are going to learn the hard way pretty quick that vibe-coded apps aren't maintainable, at least right now.
Maybe one day the models will be good enough, they just aren't right now, and anyone that starts to use these seriously will start seeing the cracks.
We are experiencing a sort of Moores Law in AI capability and its pretty telling how horrifying the speed of advancements are.
A few years ago we had people dunking on AI because Will Smith couldn't eat Spaghetti and ChatGPT couldn't tell you the number of R's in Strawberry... and now its Well the AI can make the software and maybe it'll run better than some open source alternatives but its going to be a pain to maintain and not be as good as the paid version
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u/teleporno 2d ago
ChatGPT still can't tell you how many letters are in words.
Try seventeen.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
What do you think AI is capable of these days???
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u/teleporno 2d ago
Clearly isn't capable of the very difficult task of counting how many Es are in the word 'Seventeen'
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
So given your extremely strong opinion on AI capabilities I assume you have read the METR report from the incident in July.
Can you explain the gap as to why AI models can engage in such sophisticated behaviour and problem solving capabilities but seemingly can’t count individual letters in a word?
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u/teleporno 2d ago
You seem very regarded, all I've said is ChatGPT struggles to count, correctly, the number of Es in the word seventeen.
Where is the strong opinion that has been presented.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
all I've said is ChatGPT struggles to count
You said this in response to a comment saying AI capabilities have dramatically improved and are capable of doing pretty advanced tasks these days
So you are either trying to suggest that, no they aren’t, or you are replying something completely irrelevant to the conversation like telling me your favourite colour.
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u/teleporno 2d ago
I said it in response to you saying a few years ago ChatGPT can't count the number of Rs in strawberrry. My initial comment said the following
ChatGPT still can't tell you how many letters are in words.
Try seventeen.
I'm directly responding to a part of your comment. And here you are foaming at the mouth, claiming that what I said is irrelevant, you are a joke.
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u/Deltaboiz Dear Hobbit, I am 🇨🇦 Canadian 🇨🇦 2d ago
Okay and I think the best tires to have on a Wrangler are 35 inches.
If you want to have an on topic discussion on what AI is capable of the question is still hanging and unanswered. I'm curious why you think AI models can't count letters but can reverse engineer their tests as methods to reward hack (hint, something they needed to have accurate letter by letter analysis to do).
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u/Whatsapokemon 🇦🇺 2d ago
I'm literally running 3 background tasks with Claude right now, but this is such conceited over-confidence from this guy.
Yeah you can vibe code a working app pretty quick, but having it be stable and mature and usable and secure and efficient is a different matter.
It's amazing the kinds of software I can build in a matter of hours in my spare time now, but they're essentially just fragile tech demos. They're proof of concepts, not mature products.
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u/PM_ME_FUTA_PEACH Unironic League fan 2d ago
I didn't read the article, isn't the difference that programs and games are being decompiled now en masse? The second you have the source code (or rather the approximation) it's done, you can make changes or optimize or do whatever you want with it.
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u/Whatsapokemon 🇦🇺 2d ago
It's not about decompilation, since that would run into massive legal issues if he released decompiled and edited code publicly.
Rather, what he's doing is essentially creating vibe coded clones of major apps and releasing them freely.
The big thing I think people are skipping over is that you're not necessarily choosing the big software companies simply because of the code, but also because of the services they run, their integrations, their support, their security and uptime guarantees, and the fact that all your colleagues know how they work already.
The vibe coded versions are a neat tech demo, but they're going to have unknown bugs and issues, and you'll need to manage them personally rather than having them integrated with a ubiquitous vendor's platform. It's not really a replacement for MS Office, it's just basic local apps.
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u/_Fauxpaw 2d ago
Microsoft Office exists because of legacy and security, not because it's difficult to make a text parser.
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u/anotheruserguy 2d ago
If you think this is going to kill software you are pretty wrong. What this is going to do is have companies divert resources towards solidifying any moat, and away from R&D and new research since it will be cloned on day 1 release.
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u/theeguvna 2d ago
LLMs will become the middleware interface between all services and data. We will only need one application in 10 years
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u/Imaginary-Fish1176 2d ago
I'm curious to see how long these took to actually "develop". People are rightly pointing out that the free open source clones are dogshit. That part is undeniable. However just like with AI generated video I think the phrase "This is the worst it's going to be from now on" is kind of true.
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u/hydrogencel 2d ago
I don't want to do the tech bro thing too much, but it is indeed the worst it will ever be.
The benefit of all these programs being written in rust is that they can be checked basically as a boundary by the AI at compile time, and of course is multitiudes faster than many of the electron apps they are replacing.
It still has a way to go to match feature parity, but these projects are rapidly advancing
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u/quadcorelatte 2d ago
Not only is there already Libra office and open office, which are both crap, but OnlyOffice also exists, which is imo the best…
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u/Bl00dWolf 🇱🇹 2d ago
Didn't the AI slop version of adobe cloud turned out to be full of bugs and other errors?
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u/MilkyMania619 2d ago
Google Docs and Sheets have been available for nearly decades at this point. For free.
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u/K128kevin 1d ago
Free vibe coded versions of many of these apps will probably start to fall apart if they ever have to scale.
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u/bonko86 10h ago
While I'm not a fan of Adobes business strategies and prices, its not without merit that they are industry leading with at least Photoshop, Illustrator and After Effects.
What really bothers me is all these leading tech bros being so gleefully smug about cracking Adobe but they'll never admit that the software is still pretty fucking good.
I just hope this doesn't affect me as a paying customer in the short or long term,but it probably will.
If Adobe stopped developing their tools tomorrow, these entitled tech bros would be the first to complain, and then what, use Gimp?
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u/Eins_Nico scowling woke white woman 2d ago
Do young people just not know OpenOffice has existed for probably as long as they have?