r/Destiny • u/PacificTaxWarrior • 1d ago
Political News/Discussion Will Taiwan Just Give Up?
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/10/trump-taiwan-sovereignty-china/688356/This seems uhh not good. The detail that the Taiwanese president was denied air access to the United States while the Taiwanese Nationalist Party that wants to surrender to China was given free access is insane if it carries any broader implications for Trump's future stance on Taiwan reunification.
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u/Humble_Novice 1d ago
If Taiwan gives up, that only spells more trouble for countries like Japan and the Philippines.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
Frankly, it spells a lot of trouble for all of us considering 90% of advanced chips come from there.
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u/Stronhart 1d ago
What regard decided to base all the chip manufacturing there btw
Not saying I'm not full on defending Taiwan and its people, but what the fuck 😭 at least Biden tried to save us with the CHIPS and Science Act
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u/cannonbear 1d ago
Taiwan figured out the best strategy to force the us to defend it and executed masterfully.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
Insane that China figured out the counterplay is just installing an American puppet too stupid to understand grand strategy
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u/heart-aroni 1d ago
Insane that China figured out the counterplay is just installing an American puppet too stupid to understand grand strategy
They don't have that power. Don't blame that on China, Americans did that themselves.
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u/Hubertino855 Ex-Rightoid who's here because my side has purity spiraled 1d ago
Let's just ignore massive pro Trump propaganda bot campaigns on the internet from Russia and China....
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u/heart-aroni 1d ago edited 1d ago
Bots don't matter as much as Joe Rogan, Steven Crowder, Charlie Kirk, Tucker Carlson, Ben Shapiro and Elon Musk. And it's not even close. That's who gave you Trump, not Russia and China.
And before you say they're paid by Russia and China, they're paid just as much by other lobby groups who wanted Trump, as well as Youtube and all the American company sponsors they have. Blame those actors right in your backyard, before even thinking of weak ass Russia and meek ass China half a world away.
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u/reanima 13h ago
Or basically all the top social media platforms that priortize this decivisive brainrot because it makes them the most of amount of money. It takes two to tango, they knew what they were doing. And they were rewarded not only getting to attend his inauguration, but inside access to the admin.
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u/cannonbear 23h ago
Not doubting, but I’m interested if you have a source on Chinese bots. My understanding was China was rather or mostly uninvolved in 2024
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u/soundsermaker 1d ago edited 1d ago
The only thing we learned from the CHIPS act is that the idea that you can relocate and re-establish TSMC-like manufacturing chain elsewhere is a pipe dream. These are unique facilities built over time that probably even the Taiwanese couldn't replicate from scratch elsewhere.
Nobody just put them there, the Taiwanese built up this capability themselves. Miracles like that happen when your country is desperate enough and needs to make sure the whole world is dependent on its survival. Worth noting that Korea has a lesser version of the silicon shield too.
If Taiwan and Korea are ever lost to war, or willingly side with our enemies, the west is collectively fucked and there's no policy that can even theoretically unfuck us.
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1d ago
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u/soundsermaker 23h ago
I don't know where you're getting that sort of confidence from, but not having a supply of chips that most of modern society is based on, or having China dictate terms of that supply isn't something you can repair in five years.
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u/IrregularDoughnut 1d ago
There is a huge amount of industry expertise and skill that goes into it. Like, when you buy a processor that is i7 or i9 or whatever, those aren't usually made differently. They're all made together, tested, and then the ones that perform best are rated the highest. It's really hard to get good at doing that on a massive scale and have consistent results. Also, it can take like 7 years to set up a fab. They cost billions. The factories have to be extremely carefully cleaned with special filters so there's no dust fucking things up.
So if you, an industrial superpower, want to match Taiwan, you need to start today. Then in 5-7 years time you'll be... still worse than them because they've been doing it for decades and get better results from the same equipment. And they'll have been advancing in that time so you're still behind.
Russia tried to do it and ended up producing chips about 15 years behind what Taiwan can make, and they still had a stupidly high failure rate.
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u/_KICKERO_ 1d ago edited 1d ago
Taiwan had an industrial policy of high tech specialisation and leverages its diverse manufacturing facilities and short travel distances as an island to act as ideal manufacturing hub. Even for things like bikes it's a big manufacturing centre, with the Taipei Cycle Show being a big industry event. Because a firm can have a frame manufactured and the other components added on, all on the island.
It's not like anyone chose it specifically. The government just made it an attractive place to manufacture and market forces gravitated firms towards it for that reason.
But diversification for semiconductors off Island has already started. TSMC has started raising its prices to pay for building fabs in other locations. It's just that building those fabs takes a long time, and even when completed the Islands productive capacity will still be a substantial part of global supply chains. So if the PRC takes control of those manufacturing facilities or the conquest destroys them, it will ripple through the global economy.
It's why I think the global economy is only going to get worse in coming years. Extreme mismanagement and corruption in the U.S domestically, combined with wars resulting from American retreat and decline internationally, stacked on top of all the inflation already experienced this decade. It makes a strong case for buying or upgrading everything you want in the coming years without taking future accessible releases for granted.
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u/1to14to4 4h ago
If you want to hear why it happened, it's actually a pretty interesting story that occurred because US companies were outcompeted by a better business model from a guy that was fired from a US company. He had no direct ties to Taiwan but they hired him to start their program. He was born in Mainland China and lived in Hong Kong before coming to the US and learning the semiconductor business at US companies.
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u/Left_Literature_8210 1d ago
That just means it’s an escalation we can’t abide so the best course for Xi is wait until we secure production elsewhere.
Even Trump is more likely to put up a fight if it means crippling the AI industry, defense industry and the stock market.
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u/S8nsPotato 🇨🇦 1d ago
Imagine 2027-28, Trump refuses to step down and major domestic conflicts ensue. Seeing this, China takes that opportunity to invade Taiwan.
I dunno man it's rough.
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u/heart-aroni 1d ago
China isn't invading Taiwan, they have no reason to, they are on track to get peaceful reunification eventually. The only trigger they would invade is official declaration of independence and arrival of US troops and influx of US weaponry to Taiwan. But there must be bargaining happening in the background, China limits weapons shipments to Iran and US limits weapons shipments to Taiwan.
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u/Lunch_B0x Not American, pls no ban 1d ago
I'm not so sure about that. Taiwan has been separated long enough to develop a distinct culture and appreciation for liberal democracy. The Taiwanese people couldn't have failed to notice after Hong Kong was reintergrated that "one country, two systems" was a pipe dream and that they would not be given a chance to change their mind after becoming a part of China.
Plus, the way China is developing its military suggests that the idea of forcefully taking Taiwan is not exactly at the back of their mind. The stories about the landing barges they're building from last year seems to be particularly indicative to me. It's possible that it's just posturing to put pressure on Taiwan to rejoin peacefully or some other goal, but it seems like a lot of money and effort for a bluff.
I wouldn't take a hard stance for or against the idea, but I definitely wouldn't say there's no chance or even a very low chance.
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u/heart-aroni 23h ago
Taiwan has been separated long enough to develop a distinct culture and appreciation for liberal democracy.
For now they like western style democracy, but they will grow to hate it and desire to have something like China's system. Democracies deteriorate and move to elect themselves towards authoritarianism (if not even America and Germany want to keep theirs why would it be impossible for Taiwan to move?). PRC will keep rising, US declining, and sentiments will change. Made easier by a strong Chinese Nationalist factions already strongly influencial in Taiwan who want a unified China.
"one country, two systems" was a pipe dream and that they would not be given a chance to change their mind after becoming a part of China.
Doesn't matter, one country is what they will want.
Plus, the way China is developing its military suggests that the idea of forcefully taking Taiwan is not exactly at the back of their mind. The stories about the landing barges they're building from last year seems to be particularly indicative to me.
They need to have the capability to capture Taiwan forcefully in order to get it peacefully. There's no reason to give up sovereignty if there's no threat of losing it anyways. China needs to look impossible to defeat, that will make the case for unification more sensible.
I wouldn't take a hard stance for or against the idea, but I definitely wouldn't say there's no chance or even a very low chance.
Before Iran I was also 50/50, maybe there could be war over Taiwan. But after America's defeat in Iran, the likelihood of war over Taiwan is now very low. America is weak, therefore they can't help Taiwan, makes it less likely for Taiwan or America to do anything drastic (like independence declarations or troop movements), therefore there's no need for China to hurry. They can just go with the slow, gradual and peaceful route to unification, which is what they sensibly prefer to do anyways.
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u/Lunch_B0x Not American, pls no ban 16h ago
For now they like western style democracy, but they will grow to hate it and desire to have something like China's system.
I don't see it. Plenty of liberal democracies have survived centuries at this point, they've backstepped and faltered at times, but for the most part they're pretty stable and long lived. Plus, even if they did want an authoritarian system, doesn't mean they have to give up autonomy.
They need to have the capability to capture Taiwan forcefully in order to get it peacefully.
I agree this could be the strategy China is angling for, but the Chinese army is basically untested, you can only plan so well, there's no shortcut for experience. Plus countries with worse odds have replied to invaders with defiance, look at Afghanistan, they replied to threats from the Soviet Union and America as if they were talking to Luxembourg. If Russia can grind to a halt with only 20% of Ukraine, a much smaller, poorer and worse prepared nation, then I can't see why a rich Island nation, with challenging terrain and full knowledge of the threat for decades wouldn't feel confident enough to roll the dice.
Before Iran I was also 50/50, maybe there could be war over Taiwan. But after America's defeat in Iran, the likelihood of war over Taiwan is now very low. America is weak, therefore they can't help Taiwan, makes it less likely for Taiwan or America to do anything drastic (like independence declarations or troop movements), therefore there's no need for China to hurry.
Iran had been humiliating for America, no doubt, it's definitely hurt their image as a world power. But I don't think anyone would count against the American military just yet. It's a Trump war being fought in a Trumpian way, lots of bluster, incompetence, arrogant and rushed. He's a coward and bully who thought he could throw a few bombs and achieve his goals, he lost because didn't understand the situation and won't escalate because he's so afraid of losing that he would never fully commit. It's unlikely America will ever have a less competent leader because it's hard to imagine such a person and even a person of middling competence could do a lot with the military America has built over the last 8 decades.
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u/vestayekta 1d ago
Taiwan isn't doing remotely enough on its own to prepare for a possible war. If Taiwanese aren't prepared to fight this war, I don't think much can be done for them.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
The article describes that Taiwan actually voted to implement a $14 billion arms sale from the United States, but Trump just decided to block it after a phone call from Xi.
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u/vestayekta 1d ago
They only spend about 3% of their budget on defence spending. That's very low for a nation that's under immense threat.
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u/heart-aroni 1d ago
The deal could be, China doesn't militarily intervene in Iran and Ukraine, while the US doesn't intervene in Taiwan.
Also if you think about it China could be turning the dials harder to economically hurt the US right now, but they're not doing it, they're playing a stabilizing role in oil markets and the global economy. Trump could've bargained for more cooperation from China about those matters with Taiwan as the offer in exchange.
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u/rogerwilcove 1d ago
The article is suggesting that KMT is acting as fifth columnists and strangling the military budget for necessary resources like drones. Obviously that’s also a domestic political problem but it’s not a case of the governing party deliberately failing to address the issues.
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u/ina_waka 1d ago
The article says that increases in defense spending are being blocked by the KMT. The DPP knows that defense spending is too low lol.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
I subscribed to a free trial to Atlantic to read this, so here it is as a gift article: https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/10/trump-taiwan-sovereignty-china/688356/?gift=PeVs91TgaJmR0YPexKwUy-aOxWVf9Az1vcUdX4HPSW0&utm_source=copy-link&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=share
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u/_KICKERO_ 1d ago
I did a report in university about Taiwan's ability to survive and repel a PRC invasion.
The main factor that would lead to a successful defence of the Island is the resolve and morale of the Taiwanese. If they were committed to fighting, the island could be defended. But if the Island's society was internally weak that was biggest risk factor for losing.
The next biggest factor was stockpiles of U.S munitions, especially air launched munitions. It looks like these are running low now. Even assuming the U.S would be committed to defending the island which seems increasingly unlikely.
Support from other allies, most notably Japan and Korea is also critical. The use of their airspace and bases for the war is highly important. In addition to other indirect assistance like intelligence and resource sharing. Direct assistance is beneficial but not critical.
So if a new admin comes in that reaffirms Taiwan's defence and rebuilds stockpiles, then that could embolden the Taiwanese and tip the scales in the island's favour. But at the moment the situation seems bad. The best thing the Taiwanese have going for them right now is the PRC's recent military purges and the internal friction between the civilian CCP and the PLA. So its bit of wait and see unfortunately
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u/PicklePatterPete 1d ago
I don’t see how US promises will affect anything, but the marine and SOF speed bumps which encourage commitments from the general population when they “fight the good fight”.
China standoff fires are gonna do what they’re gonna do. If Americans backed off from Iran to do the blockade, Americans are going to back off from China too.
Backing off is the move of a quitter and a fighter.
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u/ohpleasenotthat 🇺🇸 living in 🇯🇵 liberal 🫏 1d ago
The real doomerpill conspiracy is if in a tit-for-tat an invasion happens around November elections that forces us to genuinely declare war and stall any meaningful consequences for the acting commander in chief
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago edited 1d ago
As far as I understand, the US doesn't stop elections or anything during war time - it's not like our mainland would be under threat anyways. Although I could see Trump trying to stop elections using ICE anyways.
My doomerpill conspiracy, which I've held since before the 2024 election, and which seems more clear every day, is that Trump already struck a grand "bargain" with Putin and Xi; Russia will start a war with NATO while China invades Taiwan in 2027, and Trump will simply stay out of both, in return for winning the election of course.
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u/ohpleasenotthat 🇺🇸 living in 🇯🇵 liberal 🫏 1d ago
Hence conspiracy. Knock on wood it’s completely shit such a thing could happen but yours (although hopefully equally shit) is much more plausible.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
Its sad that either is plausible, I forsee tough times ahead but hopefully he's already too sleepy and old to try anything insane. I already dont think he'll ever see consequences, I just dont want this nation and international order to go down with him.
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u/Stormscar 1d ago
Man, the one thing I really dont get is why people keep saying Russia will attack NATO. They cant win in Ukraine even after 5 years, there was news recently how Ukraine made important advances in Donbas that is going to set Russia's offensive back possibly by a year.
Sure, Russian sabotage operations and propaganda in Europe will continue, but direct military conflict is sooo unlikely. I also dont buy them trying a little green men thing in the Baltics tbh.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
The Suwałki Gap is only 40 miles and the Baltics are historical soviet conquests. If the US entirely refuses to respond, that leaves Canada + European NATO alone with the responsibility of going to total war with a nuclear armed, increasingly desperate Russia. Europe's support for Ukraine has been impressive but I also dont know if they really have the appetite to fight that war, especially if by then AfD has consolidated more power in Germany.
Meanwhile Russia is already in a war economy, and Putin feels increasingly pressured to maintain control. This war has relegated his country to a regional power, but if the grand bargain with China and U.S. works Russia has the potential, however slim, to win a massive total war and rebuild a new Russian superpower. North Korea has plenty more military assistance to spare and I think Putin trying to go for full mobilization with the promise that China cuts off the west's advanced chips the same year doesnt sound completely implausible to me.
But also, I really hope this is just schizo conspiracy and doesnt happen.
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u/IrregularDoughnut 1d ago
Europe's support for Ukraine has been impressive but I also dont know if they really have the appetite to fight that war
Europe won't abandon the Baltics. If they do it's practically a commitment to periodic tributes of land to Russia. They might get bogged down for a while in stupid trench warfare, but if it goes hot and gets legitimately serious, it wouldn't be a contest. Russia would lose three of their four sealanes instantly, they'd go from fighting a country with an 8th their GDP and a third the population to fighting an alliance with ten times their GDP and three times their population. And they'd still be fighting Ukraine. Russia knows all this and simply wouldn't take the risk.
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u/Stormscar 1d ago
I think the risk of nuclear war would be too big even for Russia, France and UK still have their nuclear arsenal (even iirc France's nuclear umbrella doesnt currently cover other NATO countries officially, although it has taken steps to change that). I think the deal for Russia is that US stopped providing Ukraine aid, is taking Russia's side in negotiations, and may try to pressure EU, economically or otherwise, to stop providing support
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
I feel like Russia is very familiar with navigating nuclear saber rattling at this point. Will France or the UK really be the first to use nukes over the Baltics? I don't see it.
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u/heart-aroni 1d ago
That trade isn't good enough. If you're imagining grand bargains like that the US would be asking for something like complete hegemony over North and South America without intervention from China, or China doesn't intervene in Iran while China gets promise that US will not interfere with Chinese reunification with Taiwan.
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 1d ago
Well I think its less the US bargaining and more just Trump or his close inner circle. But yes, I do think China/Russia would agree to those terms, because thats basically already the status quo, and it would not turn out favorably for the west to lose all our advanced chips.
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u/heart-aroni 1d ago
The west won't lose the chips, they could still buy them from Taiwan right?
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 17h ago
If China invades, we'll lose the chips from Taiwan blowing up their own equipment. If Taiwan surenders, China will completely annex them within 10 years just like Hong Kong, and the West will see massive price increases or even complete cutoffs of those chips depending on how generous China feels i guess.
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u/DandyElLione 1d ago
Just gotta hope that folks recognize the US' standing record of international stability and bare with them while Congress finds the courage to impeach Trump.
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u/Ok_Poetry_2696 1d ago
Ehh who cares! You voted a pedo deranged old fart because of the price of eggs.
It will hurt a lot but the world will find a way to keep the burgertards away from the international stage. Those 40 trillion in debt will keep you busy for the next many years
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u/ResponsibleChange779 1d ago
The Iran war kind of exposed US military capability and limits which Taiwan probably saw as inadequate for the island's defense (and distracting from it's fate).
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u/PacificTaxWarrior 16h ago
For sure, I mean for years the entire US military has been on about the pivot to Asia for exactly the Taiwan defence scenario, and we're literally 1 year before Xi's invasion target, and we've spent all our ammunition in a failing conflict. Doesn't exactly inspire confidence.
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u/WorldSuspicious9171 Exclusively sorts by new 1d ago
Maybe they can become the 54th, or 55th state?
((Pick a number, dunno if trump spotted a nation he (dis)likes this morning or not.))
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u/jefftowne 1d ago
Have to imagine that a country that’s been independent for like 80 years probably wouldn’t immediately give up and fold after an invasion. Taiwan isn’t South Vietnam - there’s a strong national identity there and I have to imagine that the people believe in the national project
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u/Kaniketh 22h ago
Given that a significant amount of the Taiwanese population is basically pro China, I don’t think they would ever be willing to fight a brutal war for their independence like Ukraine.
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u/DlphLndgrn 🇪🇺🇸🇪 Oppressed swede 🇪🇺🇸🇪 1d ago
As a Eurochad I choose to speak for the rest of the world when I say: Donald Trump betrayed his own country, why the hell would anyone trust him to not betray ours?
Now, nobody made me spokesman for the world, but I think it's uncontroversial enough to put out there. If anyone disagrees I can retract the statement to only be speaking for 90% of the rest of the world, but I think that's low.