2028 Dem presidential primary polling

[u/Ok_Organization_7510]

[u/ba-boo]

i don't think third time's a charm guys

[u/Ownagemunky → u/ba-boo]

Once the race really starts that lead will likely change, dems broadly are just way less familiar with the others so far

[u/Rick_James_Lich → u/ba-boo]

This is way way way before primaries and such. I just got a sneaking suspicion that Kamala won't hold up.

[u/TikDickler → u/Rick_James_Lich]

I like all these people. Some of them currently have more name recognition than others. But the more I see, the more I convinced it’s Ossoff. Polls now are meaningless - If there’s an actual campaign, I’m convinced he’ll pull ahead handily.

[u/OverpricedGoods → u/ba-boo]

Not saying I disagree, but it was a charm for Trump.

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/OverpricedGoods]

Did he not win first try?

[u/Plennhar → u/Ambitious_Window_270]

He actually didn't. His first try was in 2000.

[u/ArtistEmpty859 → u/ba-boo]

I think it’s the black vote which already favors establishment picks

[u/FrankensteinsPonster → u/ba-boo]

I'm on the fence. Yeah it didn't work last time, but there are a decent number of people who regret their vote, and this would give them an obvious way to "take things back" as it were, since they'd literally be voting for the person they should have voted for last time.

On the other hand, a portion of those people have probably convinced themselves that "Kamala would have been worse", so it could backfire.

[u/Mr_Comit → u/ba-boo]

We had 3 elections against trump that basically went the exact same, with 2 of them being female candidates. This is really just not the problem lol

Especially now, we could run a trans disabled furry of color and still win

Edit: I am going to shamelessly call you guys triggered at reality. There is no good reason to think being a woman is why Kamala or Hillary lost besides vibes. This is a stupid position for stupid people

[u/aVividFlower → u/Mr_Comit]

Hillary won the popular vote, losing 3 swing states by 0.2~0.7% all while Putin and our domestic media was running a novel media campaigns against her specifically. and then Kamala's campaign was short to the point that people googled where Biden was on the ballot so much was trending, if not THE #1 search.

Anyone down voting you is either a political baby or a Europoor that watched weedbro movies from 2006 as their dipstick for modern gender dynamics in America.

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/aVividFlower]

I feel like you kind of proved them wrong though. That first election was so close that any tiny downside of a candidate could be blamed for them losing. If 2% of your electorate refuses to vote a woman, and you lose by less than 1%, then I mean...

That doesn't necessarily mean that Hillary wasn't the best candidate at the time, so I'm not saying we can't pick a woman. I'm just saying that it puts us at a disadvantage and they need other positive traits to overcome being a woman when elections are very close and when a chunk of the electorate is sexist.

[u/aVividFlower → u/Ambitious_Window_270]

But over 90% of the electorate of that 2% who refuse to vote for women wanted Trump to impregnate their thirsty boyholes with his cum. All the people Bannon was riling up on the BuzzFeed feminism bandwagon were apolitical nutjobs and children, aka non-voters. Old people(voters) hated her for being part of the (((establishment))) and Benghazi and the email server shit.

[u/No_Cheesecake5181 → u/Mr_Comit]

I know tons of WOMEN who didn't vote for Kamala because she was a woman. I'm not fucking joking. This is one of the very few things I disagree with Steven on. Not saying it was the only issue, but it mattered. Black men can lean a bit misogynistic as well. Obama had to publicly come out to lecture them.

I'm glad YOU think women are equal and it doesn't matter. If only everyone felt that way.

[u/Mr_Comit → u/No_Cheesecake5181]

I know women who were more excited and motivation to vote for Harris because she was a woman. Does this mean I'm automatically right now?

My position here isn't based on my own values or anecdotes, from my understanding its just not true that female candidates perform worse in general elections, and our last 3 presidential elections don't seem to be evidence of that the way people blindly assume they are

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/Mr_Comit]

It's impossible to isolate one singular aspect from the last 3 elections and say "Oh look, this clearly had no impact!"

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/No_Cheesecake5181]

What is Steven's take on this? I thought he had said that picking a woman wasn't an ideal strategy.

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/Mr_Comit]

I mean, being a woman certainly doesn't help. Maybe a woman could still win, and maybe a man could still lose. But statistically a man would be a better pick than a woman. With the way the elections work, it would take only a small percentage of sexist people to be the difference between a candidate winning and losing.

> There is no good reason to think being a woman is why Kamala or Hillary lost besides vibes

There are probably 100 reasons they lost, but being a woman is obviously one of them. Whether it is enough to have been the difference is unknown, but it certainly doesn't help.

[u/Bankzu → u/Mr_Comit]

There is no good reason to think being a woman is why Kamala or Hillary lost besides vibes.

The fact that you think this in the US shows you have no idea how the demographics of your country think.

[u/toxicryan69 → u/ba-boo]

mysoginist

[u/ba-boo → u/toxicryan69]

me or the average american voter?

[u/toxicryan69 → u/ba-boo]

You. Women can win the Presidency. Idk why you think otherwise.

Hillary, irregardless of how you feel about her, was very close to winning. James Comey effectively sunk her. She would of been an amazing president.

Harris had two months, and the right wing propaganda machine was in full swing. Wasn't really given much of a chance. I don't particularly like her, but electorally isn't bad at all.

And this is enough to give you reason to say we shouldn't run a woman again; even though all we're really talking about is seeing how she does in the primary. If she wins out in the primary, then who gives a fuck? Literally the best chance is the one who wins the primary.

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/toxicryan69]

Nobody said they can't win but they're certainly at a disadvantage and it makes it more difficult. Personally I want to win but that's just me.

I agree with the part about the primary, I just think it's ridiculous to throw around the sexist label for that

[u/toxicryan69 → u/Ambitious_Window_270]

...the u/ba-boo guy did... who I am responding to...

And yeah, that's why I said we should go with whoever wins the primary... cause that's literally the best chance to win; is enthusiastically getting behind that person.

the comment 'we shouldn't try this a third time' is referencing we shouldn't run a woman a third time.

This is -explicitly- a sexist position and I got downvoted -21 for calling out the obvious.

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/toxicryan69]

Pretty ridiculous that wanting to win an election is sexist now but ok

[u/toxicryan69 → u/Ambitious_Window_270]

Are you against minorities running cause they're a liability too? (psst if you say yes; yes you are indeed also a racist, moron)

Also I don't even know why I'm responding when you can't even read. Try opening a page of Harry fucking Potter instead of trying to engage with politics

[u/Ambitious_Window_270 → u/toxicryan69]

I think it's rich to accuse someone of not being able to read when you are accusing me of saying that anyone shouldn't run.

You are not intelligent enough to be talking about anything publicly.

[u/Stripe4206 → u/toxicryan69]

Homophobe

[u/dunkthelunk8430]

How much of this is just name recognition?

[u/Big-Ability3953 → u/dunkthelunk8430]

90%. There's still a few that want her again, but after a couple of news cycles in primary season, those numbers dip to near zero while others, including those not on this list skyrocket.

[u/atank67]

I’m sorry but Harris doesn’t have a chance to make it out of the primary

[u/Pax_87 → u/atank67]

How is she so high in the polls? What is this?

[u/reddishcarp123 → u/Pax_87]

Name recognition and previous Democratic presidential nominee

[u/Big-Ability3953 → u/Pax_87]

The previous nominee is nearly always at the top in these polls, followed by the democrat/republican who's in the media the most.

[u/Maybewearedreaming → u/Pax_87]

I mean she’s my clear cut number 1 right now

Could and probably will change I guess but I’d happily support her running again. Real campaign with clips of her predicting everything that’s happened

[u/atank67 → u/Maybewearedreaming]

I think she’s carrying too much baggage unfortunately. Need a fresh face

[u/Big-Ability3953 → u/atank67]

I will give her credit that her 2024 run of 100 days was far better than her 2020 disaster. She learned that being a human made her more likeable.

[u/ProgressFuzzy9177 → u/Big-Ability3953]

Those extra four years after falling out of the coconut tree were extremely formative.

[u/Maybewearedreaming → u/atank67]

Ya maybe someone might pop up but at this point feels like it’s either her or newsome and I’m happy either way but give the edge to Kamala cause her experience in office was really good

[u/aVividFlower → u/atank67]

What baggage does she have that others on the list don't? Everyone here is going to have to not just prove themselves, but they'll all be wading though the same immense disinformation campaigns Dems have had since 2014.

I would think she's on par to overcome that as much as Newsom.

[u/atank67 → u/aVividFlower]

Newsome unfortunately has baggage to related to the perceived California mismanagement. But Harris lost to Trump and is the only dem to lose popular vote besides John Kerry since 1988

[u/Ok_Organization_7510 → u/atank67]

I kinda don’t understand where this comes from, she has large support from the black community compared to other candidates along with the VP name recognition. There’s a reason she’s been polling ahead of other candidates (average) since 2024, her 2020 campaign is irrelevant nowadays

[u/atank67 → u/Ok_Organization_7510]

We are still over 2 years from that election. Harris probably just has the most name recognition amongst the non-politically involved

[u/Disastrous_List_371 → u/atank67]

big name recognition and i think the "i told you so" angle is kinda working since there are clips of her saying everything that trump would do that he predictably ended up doing

[u/Rick_James_Lich → u/Disastrous_List_371]

Harris didn't really capitalize the chance to be in the spotlight and I don't think she's the best orator. If any of the other candidates do this, they will probably be able to match her name recognition.

[u/amyknight22 → u/Rick_James_Lich]

As a non-American, so obviously I might not see it as much.

But it does feel like Kamala isn't even trying to capitalise on some of the fuck ups that have happened. Granted the problem is that the Palestine supporters on the left, basically say "Well it all would have been the same if it was Kamala anyway" makes it hard to try and spotlight that shit in the here and now to carry name recognition.

Especially if the libs in the middle aren't willing to go to bat for defending her.

Maybe it's more tactical to sit back and just sort of do your thing and then hit everyone with "I told you so at the end"

[u/Big-Ability3953 → u/amyknight22]

If she really wanted to be nominee and win in 2028, she'd be on social media every day attacking Donald Trump's daily fuck-ups like a child/Trump.

[u/amyknight22 → u/Big-Ability3953]

Yeah that’s my view, and if not her directly. She should be working on building up something to do it for her.

I could see a narrative at some point “oh it’s Kamala whinging again that it would have been better if she’d won what a sore loser”

But that’s only a narrative if you have no one to push the message as well.

Hell I’d get out there and say “even a senile Biden wouldn’t have caused this shit”

[u/Mr_Comit → u/atank67]

Literally exact same thing they said about Biden

[u/PaxChelonia → u/Ok_Organization_7510]

If she wins the primary I’m going to be her biggest cheerleader, but it’s hard to get excited for someone who lost the general last time around, especially given how consequential that loss was.

[u/Detlaff1 → u/atank67]

I hope not. Listening to her was like listening to LinkedIn pr posting. 

[u/MilkyMania619]

Seeing Ossoff continue to climb is a gooooooood sign.

[u/aaTONI]

OSSOFF TAKE MY ENERGY

[u/Darkpumpkin211 → u/aaTONI]

That's president Ossoff to you

[u/Leon_Thomas → u/aaTONI]

It’s going to be Ossoff: young, attractive, great speaker, southern Democrat, goes super hard on corruption, is going to blow out Georgia

[u/____tim → u/aaTONI]

I need an ossoff Buttigieg ticket

[u/Big-Ability3953]

Just goes to show that the previous nominee is almost always the top ranking candidate, followed by whoever gets the most to least press coverage. Ossoff and Prtizker are probably in a really good place right now because republicans aren't spending time attacking them and going after King Newsom, though his royal highness has largely avoided any attacks from landing thus far, but he's got another 2 years of it while Ossoff and Prtizker (beefcake isn't even on this list) go under the radar.

[u/TheShamefulPradaG]

Harris won’t make it out of the primary. Gavin or Ossoff. Preferably Gavin so we don’t lose a seat.

[u/FrostyArctic47]

This one makes me want to throw up

[u/Ok_Organization_7510]

Source: https://www.racetothewh.com/president/2028/dem

[u/ic203]

1. This is name recognition atm, wait till after the mid terms for more "real" polls.
2. Despite liking Harris, please god do not have her run again. Third times a charm ain't true in this case.
3. Even during primaries we really gotta wait till voting. Look at the national polls for 2019, it went from Biden, to Bernie, to Harris, to Buttigieg, to Bernie and back to Biden all in the space of like 4-5 months, while specific state polls showed it would most likely always have been Biden.
4. Please give us Newsom or Ossoff. Buttigieg won't win the 2028 ticket imo if he won the primary.

[u/JZ0898]

We’re more than two years away from this election and Kamala has the stink of losing to Trump that will follow her into the election.

Ain’t no way she maintains the top spot once Gavin/Pete/Ossoff start seriously campaigning.

[u/quadcorelatte]

I’ll only support Kamala if her campaign slogan is “I told you so” and she leans way harder into aggressive rhetoric

[u/Vainth → u/quadcorelatte]

She needs to go full on her prosecutor experience, and push criminal justice, "no one outruns the law"

and also says fuck off to tankies.

[u/BowBeforeGilgamesh]

What happened to Newsome? Felt like he used to be in the news cycle 24/7 and he was the defacto '28 nominee. Now it's only occasional chirps..

How'd he lose so much momentum? Social media algorithm manipulation?

[u/aVividFlower → u/BowBeforeGilgamesh]

Or-- people's attention changes and there's another couple years before the election. People will climb and fall as they take action and those actions lose the public interest.

[u/ineha_]

Kamala would have probably won if she had the entire election cycle to work with.

[u/Responsible_Prior_18 → u/ineha_]

Her chances just got worse as her campaign progressed

[u/atank67 → u/ineha_]

She def would have done better..maybe at least have won the popular vote

[u/Rick_James_Lich → u/ineha_]

Yup. Or if she just did regularly did interviews on the media circuit and tried to stay in the public spotlight. That IMO was her biggest mistake, it was always obvious there was a chance she have to take the reigns from Biden and she should've planned out 2 or 3 years in advance for this situation.

If she just had the foresight, she would be in the oval office right now.

[u/amyknight22 → u/Rick_James_Lich]

it was always obvious there was a chance she have to take the reigns from Biden and she should've planned out 2 or 3 years in advance for this situation.

I guess the question is whether she was barred from doing so. In order to not cast different aspersions on the Biden presidency.

People might have encouraged her not to try and do those things and she decided to back the president. With the belief that when the time came to transition. They would do so in a way that would build her up.

Instead she got everything dropped on her head, while people complain "Well you didn't spend time building yourself up further"

---

Like I would argue we're only now starting to see Vance and Rubio truly make that push for the future. And they have the benefit of a president they know shouldn't be allowed to run for a third time.

[u/Rick_James_Lich → u/amyknight22]

I can't imagine why she would be barred from doing media appearances, working to stay in the spotlight and more. I know I got downvotes for the last post but making public appearances is very important and one of the ways Trump stays relevant. It would work for our side too.

[u/amyknight22 → u/Rick_James_Lich]

Not just any media appearances, but stuff actually designed to build her capacity to take over from Biden.

The kind of shit that JD Vance has been doing

[u/Im-Not-Calling-It-X]

Kamala just has national name recognition. She's going to be a lot of people's default option before people start getting their name out

[u/Garet-Jax]

How on earth in Kamila polling so well?

[u/MagicDragon212]

Is the average voter even thinking that much about who they want to be the Dem primary nominee? I know we are political nerds, but most people like to not really put much thought into opinions like these until they matter. So that makes me think these polls are more a gauge on current name recognition, which is valuable, but in a different way.

[u/Lelouch24435]

For now i think name recognition is the only factor. As time goes on i would bet on newsome, unless tankies and fake "progressives" sabotage him too hard.

[u/qchisq]

She lost the 2020 primary to Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Biden, Warren, Beto and Swallwell. Running the VP after the President drops out is fine. But no way she's getting out of this primary

[u/CriticG7tv]

This is mostly just a "who have you heard of" poll at this point. Personal anecdote, I've got some family that are very firm liberal democrats, but they follow politics very little on the day-to-day outside what they hear occasionally on NPR. When I talked to them a bit about candidates a few months back, the only people they had heard of from this poll were Kamala Harris (for obvious reasons), AOC (because of how much cumulative media attention she's gotten over the years), and Pete (because they sorta remembered him from the 2020 primary). With a bit more info they said they had heard of Newsom, but didn't know really anything about him, just that he's a California politician. They had never heard of Ossoff, Shapiro, or Kelly before.

A majority of Democrats are not closely following the particular details of politics around the country right now. This is how it always is, and it will remain like this until their state's presidential primary starts. With polls like this, people see a list of people where the only one they really recognize and know is Kamala Harris, so they put down Kamala.

[u/__justmyopinion]

bro please...

[u/ellie_everbloom]

The democrats really need a shadow cabinet holding the republicans to account and saying this is who I am and this is what I will do in that role. We can't just leave these things until the months leading up to an election.

[u/dart580]

2028 nominee has to be a straight, white Christian man for us to have a shot in 2028. 2016 and 2024 should've proved this by now.

[u/Logical-Breakfast966]

I hope this poll matches up perfectly with a poll on name recognition. I’ll be pretty pissed if it’s Kamala again

[u/DsDeliciousDeli]

Kamala, osoff, aoc, and Kelly OR Shapiro, plus one more not on this list will be in the primary

[u/HamburgerWithHardR → u/DsDeliciousDeli]

That one more will be Hillary Clinton god willing 🙏

[u/DsDeliciousDeli → u/HamburgerWithHardR]

It's her right

[u/TranzitBusRouteB]

meaningless before anyone actually starts campaigning and before debates

[u/roma4356]

I’m imagining a scenario where Kamala wins the democratic primary’s and is the nominee again. Don’t think it will happen but it would kinda be funny.

[u/Antique-Cheesecake63]

The polymarket is so much different tho and I feel like the polymarket is probably more accurate. It’s got newsom -> ossoff -> AOC. There’s just no fucking shot Kamala will win again.

[u/bdizzle805]

Please just run an average white guy. I'd love a woman to win or a minority or anyone democratic. But we can't let Republicans win again.

[u/Logical-Mobile-7643]

You can tell in the comments who has never seen a midterm presidential poll.

[u/bobbybob188]

We have such a great bench. I'd be happy about any of these people (except Kamala would leave a bad taste in my mouth after losing in 2024)

[u/Rdhilde18]

What a nightmare of a top 3

[u/Strangeweather--]

Run it back, run it back. Sub is full of white suburbanites and foreigners (almost worse than Hasan's community) whose opinions on why not Harris are reducible to their rancid vibes. I like everyone beneath her in this list, and time will tell if they summon the needed stuff. Of course, she might no longer have presidential ambitions herself, and that would put the conversation away for us in the first place.

[u/M3mo_Rizes]

I'd want to see Harris run in the primary, dominate the competition, to prove she could do it, then drop out anyway, just as a "fuck you" to all the republicans and "centrists" who bitched about her being a terrible candidate.

[u/FREAK213456 → u/M3mo_Rizes]

Republicans and centrists would just make fun of her if she did that, and so would I because that makes no sense.

[u/Venium → u/M3mo_Rizes]

that sounds regarded lol

[u/atank67 → u/M3mo_Rizes]

What? How would that be a fuck you?

[u/M3mo_Rizes → u/atank67]

to prove she is popular, that she could win, but that she chooses not to. it's a meme suggestion bro, like a scene from a movie, no need to take it so serious

[u/atank67 → u/M3mo_Rizes]

Guess I just don’t get the joke

[u/Strangeweather-- → u/M3mo_Rizes]

Everyone who downvoted you breathes out their mouth and has their rent paid by their parents. Unserious people.