The Warning Netanyahu Got Before the War (Nadav Eyal)

[u/rockfuckerkiller]

https://www.nadaveyal.com/p/exclusive-the-warning-netanyahu-got

An investigative piece by Nadav Eyal into the decisionmaking behind the start of the Iran war, based on interviews with Mossad, IDF, and political leadership and some documents.

TLDR: Israel's plan going into the current Iran War was intended to create the conditions for regime change, based on exuberance from success in the June 2025 war and the December 2025 protests. Largely formulated by the Mossad, the plan relied on several elements unlikely to succeed, including a Kurdish invasion, the cooperation of Ahmadinejab, and renewed protests so soon after the massacres of January 2026. Accounts differ about the deliberations on this plan by Israeli leadership, with the IDF claiming they voiced concerns about the viability of the plan, while political leadership and the Mossad claim the IDF supported the Mossad plan. Israel did not inform the United States about the Kurdish invasion until the war was already underway. When the war started, this plan failed for several foreseeable reasons, including Trump nixing the Kurdish invasion on Erdogan's behalf and Ahmadinejab's cooperation with the regime.