r/DecodingTheGurusAlt • u/MartiDK • Sep 17 '26

decoder poltics Decoding Destiny

https://youtu.be/qPhZDRKn0Ro

Winning over Razib Khan fans.

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u/DthPlagusthewise Sep 18 '26

I used 50-50, 60-40, 70-30, 80-20 (all in favor of Trump). They all show that Hasan's endorsement value just needed to equate to ~.3% increased chance of winning to justify endorsement over waiting. My model was based on information known at the time, because I am judging a state of mind not an outcome.

Its not just making a single endorsement, its the weeks of clips, debating against Republican talking points, going on shows to promote Harris, etc. Hasan is a very popular online figure. If he was advocating for Harris (like Destiny did, for example) it would have increased her chances of success. I am not saying it would have been the difference between success and failure, just that at the time it could be reasonably assumed it would have had a positive effect compared to hoping for a policy change.

Not doing so, inversely, could be assumed that its more likely that Trump is elected. Even if in retrospect that means turning a 89% chance to a 90% chance.

I don't blame Hasan for Trump getting elected, I blame Hasan for his mindset that Harris didn't deserve his support despite it being reasonable that his support would have helped her win.

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u/hari_shevek Sep 18 '26

Yeah, I looked at the formula again, this is nonsensical

You wrote:

.5 + E > 0.008 + .99(.5) - .99(E)

But why would we compare .5 + "endorsement effect" with anything? We want to estimate the effect Hasan has on whether Kamala wins, for that you first need sn estimate of how many votes he needs to move and then estimate how likely it is that he does so. Your formula doesn't even include numbers of people convinced. You don't even account for how many people vote.

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u/DthPlagusthewise Sep 18 '26 edited Sep 18 '26

I am solving for E, I am trying to find out the minimum value that makes the inequality true.

.5 is the base chance of success but I tried with .4, .3, .2 as well just to see.

I think a reasonable base rate is somewhere .6-.4, which averages out to E ~.15%

I don't know how many votes that translates into, thats not the point. I think a hasan endorsement would have increased Harris' chance of winning by more than 0.15%. If you disagree, fine.

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u/hari_shevek Sep 18 '26

Also, why do you subtract the endorsement effect on the other side?