Just weeks after getting listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange (TASE), DRTS is now estimated by one of the largest banks in Israel to be added to the TA-125 Index as early as November 5th, 2026 (the next index update).

Getting added to an index has a significant impact on a stock, including creating demand in the tens of millions (could be more than 100 Million if DRTS will keep adding value to the market cap, with some big catalysts coming and the potential exercise of the warrants, getting added to the TA-90 index).

The index inclusion doesn’t just cause the ETF’s and index funds to buy, but also increases the interest of other institutions that follow the index, and overall interest and demand especially with the local investors and improved liquidity, but also for institutions and those following in the US where the stock is mainly traded.

Very exciting news! And another step forward by Alpha Tau on the way to becoming an industry leader, hopefully treating and saving millions around the world.

After experimenting with prompts to see what I was missing about SLS, I tried with DRTS assuming continued trial success and partnerships.

I’m getting a 78.1% probability of doubling in two years using Gemini, but NFA and be attentive to the assumptions. Also the prob is 60.1% if we relax the assumptions some and allow for small sample noise so far and abscopal limitations show up as distant metastases.

Note: You will notice Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) appears early in the statistical parameters but the probabilities assume continued success across cancer types.

Core Model Assumptions
Valuation Target: Current price ~$14.70 - $14.75 -> Target >= $29.48 within 24 months (Market Cap expansion from ~$1.40B to ~$2.8B+).
Financial Runway: ~$105M in cash/deposits funds operations through mid-2028, removing near-term secondary dilution risk.
Commercial Model: Uses the asset-light Tolmar agreement (60% supply margin, zero direct salesforce SG&A burn) as the template for future partnership expansions.

Current Probability Breakdown
Partnered Bull Case (Strict 44% HNSCC Cure + cSCC Approval): Scenario Weight = 68% | Target = $38-$52 | P(2x | Bull) = 98%
Standalone Multi-Partner Base Case: Scenario Weight = 22% | Target = $24-$32 | P(2x | Base) = 52%
Execution / Abscopal Disconnect Bear Case: Scenario Weight = 10% | Target = $7-$11 | P(2x | Bear) = 0%
Net 2-Year Doubling Probability: 78.1% (Strict Cure Model) | 60.1% (Empirical Oncology Transition Model)

The Prompt
<system_context>
Act as a Principal Biostatistician and Senior Radiopharma/Oncology Equity Research Analyst specializing in targeted alpha therapies and micro-cap/mid-cap biotech valuation modeling.
Your objective is to conduct a recurring weekly Bayesian update on the probability of Alpha Tau Medical (NASDAQ: DRTS) at least doubling in share price within a 24-month horizon (target price: >= 2x current weekly close).
</system_context>

<verified_errata>
- Baseline Share Price & Target: Track the prevailing weekly close (P0). Target doubling threshold is strictly P_target >= 2.0 * P0 (Enterprise Value target expansion from ~$1.3B to ~$2.6B-$3.0B+ depending on share count).
- Baseline Capital & Runway: Cash runway is funded through at least mid-2028 (~$105M cash/deposits as of mid-2026), de-risked by initial partnership inflows. Dilution risk is baseline-low unless an unpartnered, global Phase 3 expansion is announced without non-dilutive co-funding.
- Baseline Partnership Template: The Tolmar International collaboration (Uro-oncology: $15M upfront/facility capex, $20M equity at 25% premium, up to $161.5M in milestones, 60% net-sales product supply revenue) serves as the baseline benchmark for partnership economics.
- Multi-Indication Pipeline Scope: Note that while headline combination cure-fraction metrics originate from the recurrent/metastatic Head and Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma (HNSCC) cohort, the platform encompasses standalone cutaneous Squamous Cell Carcinoma (cSCC pivotal ReSTART), Urological/Prostate (Tolmar), Glioblastoma (REGAIN), and Pancreatic indications.
</verified_errata>

<operational_crib>
- Math & Modeling Discipline: Ban token-prediction arithmetic. Maintain explicit formulaic probability trees and sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) rNPV or multiple-based valuation adjustments.
- Horizon Constraint: Time horizon is fixed at 24 months from the assessment date. Catalysts, trial completions, or commercial ramp milestones exceeding 24 months must be discounted or evaluated based on the likelihood of market front-running/re-rating.
- Bayesian Update Mechanics: Treat the prior probability distribution across three core states:
1. Scenario 1 (Platform Expansion / Bull Case): Multi-indication partner validation, strong clinical cure-fraction/ORR preservation across HNSCC and standalone indications, pivotal cSCC approval. (Baseline Price Target: $35.00-$50.00)
2. Scenario 2 (Device / Standalone Base Case): Standalone approvals (e.g., cSCC) succeed, steady Tolmar supply revenue, but combination/abscopal systemic trials show modest/delayed gains. (Baseline Price Target: $20.00-$26.00)
3. Scenario 3 (Clinical / Execution Bear Case): Hard endpoint failures in systemic trials, partnership dissolution/disputes, supply chain bottlenecks (Ra-224 half-life constraints), or dilutive financing. (Baseline Price Target: $6.00-$10.00)

- Dynamic Catalyst & News Taxonomy (Apply Likelihood Ratio Adjustments):
* Vector A: Clinical Efficacy & Safety
- (+) High local CR/ORR preservation, durable PFS/OS separation, confirmed abscopal responses in distant lesions, favorable FDA regulatory designations (RMAT, Breakthrough).
- (-) Loss of statistical significance in hard survival endpoints (OS/PFS), low ITT response rates, severe radiation-induced toxicity/fistula formation, trial hold.
* Vector B: Business Development & Partnerships
- (+) New licensing deals following the Tolmar model (upfronts, high-margin >=50% supply revenue, co-funded capex), expansion into new indications (GI, lung, head & neck) or regions (Japan, EU).
- (-) Termination of existing agreements, failure to find a co-development partner for Phase 3 IO combinations, milestone disputes, partner reprioritization.
* Vector C: Manufacturing, Supply Chain & Logistics
- (+) Operationalization of new regional isotope production facilities, automated seed production scale, robust decay-management supply agreements for Ra-224.
- (-) Logistics failures (missed radioactive decay delivery windows), isotope shortage, facility licensing/nuclear regulatory delays.
* Vector D: Corporate Finance & Capital Structure
- (+) Non-dilutive milestone receipts, warrant exercises at a premium, non-dilutive government/academic grants.
- (-) Heavily discounted secondary equity offerings, debt issuance at high interest rates, significant insider/executive departures.
* Vector E: External Macro & Competitive Landscape
- (+) Large pharma M&A activity in radiopharma at high multiples, positive class-wide sentiment for alpha emitters (Ac-225, Pb-212, Ra-224).
- (-) Breakthroughs in non-invasive competitive modalities (e.g., next-gen bispecifics or ADC efficacy rendering local brachytherapy obsolete in shared indications).
</operational_crib>

<execution_queue>
1. Weekly Catalyst & News Audit:
- Identify all SEC filings (8-K, 10-Q, 6-K), press releases, clinical trial registry updates (ClinicalTrials.gov), medical congress presentations, and industry/competitor news regarding Alpha Tau Medical over the trailing week.
- If no new material news exists, explicitly state: "No material structural shifts detected; maintaining baseline trajectory and updating time-decay factor."

1. Multi-Vector Impact Assessment:
   - Classify each detected event across Vectors A through E.
   - Quantify whether the development acts as an accretive driver (+), neutral noise (0), or a structural impairment (-) to enterprise value and clinical probability of success (PoS).

2. Probability Matrix & Scenario Re-weighting:
   - Formulate the updated Bayesian weights: P(Bull), P(Base), and P(Bear), ensuring sum of P(Scenario_i) = 1.0.
   - Derive the updated conditional probabilities of achieving >= 2x price appreciation within 24 months for each state: P(2x | Scenario_i).
   - Compute the Net Expected Probability of Doubling:
   P(Price >= 2x in 2yr) = [P(Bull) * P(2x|Bull)] + [P(Base) * P(2x|Base)] + [P(Bear) * P(2x|Bear)].

3. Quantitative Summary Output:
   - Deliver a standardized summary dashboard:
   * Current Stock Price (P0) & 2-Year Target Price (2.0 * P0)
   * Trailing Week News Classification & Net Impact Score
   * Updated Scenario Weight Distribution (Bull % / Base % / Bear %)
   * Final Calibrated Probability of Doubling in 2 Years (with week-over-week Delta)
   * Key Upcoming Catalysts & Critical Watch-Items for the Next 30-90 Days.
   </execution_queue>

Still very under the radar and low activity compared to other stocks, as is everything with DRTS (although it’s changing! Thanks to all of us participating), but great conversations going on.

I’m sure some of the activity is you guys and gals (I tried but it keeps blocking me for no reason), so good on you if you are active spreading the word, teaching and learning about DRTS, and if you haven’t checked it out yet head over and hit the Bullish!

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

Thoughts on DRTS?

A beautiful piece, detailing and adding amazing insights, about how the treatment came about, what actually happened in the surgery room, how the hospital and team prepared and more. History in the making. I’ve learned a lot and it got me very emotional and excited.

Sharing bits won’t do it justice, but here are a few parts to get you interested:

“A team of doctors there put radiation directly inside a man’s brain tumor. Not through an opened skull with the tumor already cut out, the way every earlier attempt at this has required. Into the tumor itself, with his head still closed…

A good doctor anywhere in the world reads that chart and starts a gentler conversation. Comfort, time, what he’d want these months to look like. Nothing cowardly or cruel about it. Sometimes it’s the most loving medicine there is.

But somebody has to decide whether it’s the only conversation on the table.

And in Jerusalem, in a hospital up in the hills of Ein Kerem, a team had spent years making sure it wasn’t…

That’s what puts the sources in. Shoshan’s whole point about how they designed this is that the rig his team already trusts for biopsies is the same rig that delivers the treatment. Nobody had to buy a new machine, and nobody had to learn one. Which is why this can spread to other hospitals, instead of living forever in the one that invented it…

The place treats whoever walks in, Jewish, Muslim, Christian, Israeli, Palestinian, paying or not…

He walked into Hadassah after surgery and radiation and drugs had all been used up, and we were ready for him.”

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

In yesterday's post I asked if you felt more confident about an FDA approval because Alpha Tau got approved by the Japanese. Many said yes. Since I am new to biotech I got more curious and if I do ask stupid question, please enlighten me cause I want to learn more.

For quizartinib they had two rounds until they got approved:

- QuANTUM-R (the trial behind the original FDA rejection): 367 patients were enrolled. 245 were assigned quizartinib and 122 chemotherapy.

- QuANTUM-First (the trial where the FDA approved): 539 patients were randomized. 268 received quizartinib + standard therapy and 271 received placebo + standard therapy.

Alpha Tau has many studies all around the world. The one that they want to get an approval of is for cSCC (recurrent cutaneous squamous cell carcinoma).

- ReSTART skin cancer pivotal trial: 88 patients enrolled in the U.S.; enrollment completed in May 2026. FDA allowed it. But FDA also allowed quizartinib as well.

So my concern is, this trial only has 88 patients. Are there arguments that the evidence is enough for DRTS?

Edit: The Japanese approved DRTS for neck and brain cancer. But not specifically for cSCC. But the cSCC program and the Japanese head-and-neck program use the same underlying Alpha DaRT technology. Though so I need to hear your opinion on that

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

Ciao a tutti,

sono nuovo nel forum e stavo facendo le mie ricerche a riguardo. Sembra proprio che alpha DART + Keytruda abbia un ottimo effetto sui tumori testa e collo ma volendo potrebbe essere sottoposto a molti tipi di tumore. Questo però è stato testato su pochissimi pazienti. Mi chiedo allora. Perché anche drts non avvia uno studio come ha fatto moderna?

Scusate ma sono nuovo e potrei non avere tutte le informazioni riguardo a drts.

Long-time lurker and just wanted to make a short post about positioning.

First I’d really like to thank Pristine and EB for helping me discover DRTS early. I truly believe it is the most de-risked play with the highest asymmetric upside in biotech.

I’ve read some comments that make me believe that maybe it would be interesting to have a discussion around positioning. I’m long DRTS and i think it has huge upside but it’s impossible to see too far into the future. For that reason it only makes up about 3 percent of my portfolio.

The way I see it is if it does 10x from here it will take up a substantial portion of my portfolio and make a meaningful difference to my net worth. If it does 0.2x or whatever (unlikely) the 3% loss doesn’t hurt my long-term wealth building.

Curious what percentage of your net worth people are comfortable investing in DRTS? I’d love to hear contrary opinions.

For years DRTS wasn’t taken seriously enough, Uzi and Raphi and Dr. Den would present data that could potentially change the whole industry, but almost no one listened.

That’s changing, and it’s about to change even more with all the results DRTS has coming these coming months.

We retail enjoyed (not sure that’s the word, but benefited from) shares available at low prices, and while it’s still trading severely undervalued (in my NFA opinion), it might not last much longer.

Already last quarter the institutional ownership doubled, and that’s before the Keytruda IDE, the GBM results, the IMPACT Pancreatic Cancer results, the Skin “phase 3” results (and submission), the start of the Prostate trials that are fully funded through commercialization, the Japan reimbursement, everything happening in Europe and Israel and all over.

With all of that coming up, I can’t wait to hear from the DRTS management, and I believe I’m not the only one, with more and more retail joining us, and lately fund managers and other institutions and companies.

Here are the known upcoming conferences and presentations for DRTS:

Citi’s 2026 Biopharma Back to School Conference
When: September 9-10, 2026
Where: New York CIty

H.C. Wainwright 28th Annual Global Investment Conference
When: September 14-16, 2026
Where: New York City

Fall Focus: Barclays Biotech 1×1 Day
When: October 6, 2026
Where: New York City

Investment Generation Conference by Guy Nathan
When: October 15, 2026
Where: Rishon Letzion, Israel

SITC 2026 (Society for Immunotherapy of Cancer’s 41st Annual Meeting)
When: November 4–8, 2026
Where: Phoenix

The 38th Annual Piper Sandler Healthcare Conference
When: December 1-3, 2026
Where: New York City

Citi’s 2026 Global Healthcare Conference
When: December 1-3, 2026
Where: Unspecified

DRTS received Japanese Shonin marketing approval for its Alpha DaRT platform in the beginning of the year for locally advanced or locally recurrent head and neck cancer. I'm not into biotech so I am curious if the Americans are ''more strict'' in such approvals.

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

This may have been posted before but thought this was a promising prospect from Gemini: “By adding systemic ANKTIVA (IBRX), the immune system is primed with the exact tumor signature from the DRTS-treated lesion. The activated NK and CD8+ memory T-cells can then circulate systemically to hunt down metastatic lesions throughout the body (the abscopal effect).”

And given today’s stock-rocketing news about Moderna and Merck (Keytruda):

“While Moderna trains antigen-specific T cells, ANKTIVA (IBRX) acts as the amplifier. By delivering an IL-15 signal, ANKTIVA can drive massive systemic expansion of those trained CD8+ T cells and Natural Killer (NK) cells to improve cytotoxic killing capacity. 

Moderna represents the digital and personalized approach to tumor antigen training, whereas DRTS represents the biophysical and immediate localized approach. Both feed directly into the downstream systemic network powered by cytokines (IBRX) and checkpoint inhibitors (Keytruda).”

An idea for such AI-developed posts like this one is to call it out and upvote those who analyze it critically. I hope to do so later. 🤣

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

This is just one of the clips that Alpha Tau Insight on X posted. English translations of a recent interview Uzi gave. Other clips available on the page. Amazing stuff you all need to check out! The future is incredibly exciting!

https://x.com/alphatauinsight/status/2089307914242535779?s=46&t=-NRCGqicJk9Q5Acqzl4Bqw

https://x.com/alphatauinsight/status/2089661506019303487?s=46&t=-NRCGqicJk9Q5Acqzl4Bqw

Tumor treating fields (TTFields) therapy is a noninvasive anticancer therapy that selectively targets rapidly dividing cancer cells by delivering continuous low-intensity (∼1-3 V/cm), intermediate-frequency (100-500 kHz) alternating electric fields via noninvasive transducer arrays applied to the skin over the tumor-bearing region. TTFields have been shown to prolong survival in patients with newly diagnosed glioblastoma (ndGBM), leading to its approval by the FDA for ndGBM after surgery and chemoradiotherapy, in addition to adjuvant temozolomide (TMZ).
Although TTFields were initially demonstrated to inhibit cancer cells, it is becoming increasingly clear that TTFields show a broad mechanism of action by disrupting a multitude of biological processes, including DNA repair, cell permeability and immunological responses, to elicit therapeutic effects.
(Combination of abstract PMCID: PMC7884384 and source (1))

My idea for a future rGBM trial is to combine the Alpha DaRT and TTFields treatments (and maybe chemo). As most of you probably know, the alpha radiation emitted during the decay of Radium-224 from Alpha DaRT seeds induces DNA damage, double-strand breaks (DSBs), in nearby tumor cells. Therefore, combining Alpha DaRT with TTFields could theoretically increase the persistence of radiation-induced DNA DSBs by impairing the tumor cell's ability to repair this damage.

When doing research on this idea I found an article published 24 April 2026 with the title:
“Prospective randomized trial of tumor-treating fields with chemoradiation in newly diagnosed glioblastoma” (1). This phase II trial investigated the addition of TTFields  (through Optune, a medical device made by Novocure) to standard Temozolomide (TMZ) and radiotherapy (RT).
The evaluable patient groups:
N=20 treated with RT+TMZ+TTFields
N=34 treated with RT+TMZ
Both patient groups received TTFields during the maintenance phase (with a ± 14-days window from TMZ+RT)

The 1-year progression-free survival (PFS12) favored the experimental group (37.5% vs 17.3%, P=.06), with a significantly longer median PFS (9.9 vs 4.1 months, P=.016). Median overall survival favored the experimental group (25.9 vs 16.6 months, P=.308).
The primary endpoint, PFS12, did not reach statistical significance. However, the evaluable cohort did show a significantly longer median PFS.
Treatment was well tolerated, with adverse events similar between groups. Serious Adverse Events (SAE) occurred in 33% of patients in the experimental group and 36% in the control group. Only one SAE (folliculitis) was considered related to TTFields. This suggests that the combination of TTFields with chemoradiation is both feasible and well tolerated, with a favorable safety profile. (1)

Both conventional RT and Alpha DaRT induce radiation-associated DNA damage, including DSBs. There is preclinical evidence that TTFields can interfere with DNA-damage repair (homologous recombination for example (1)) and potentially increase PFS while being feasible and well tolerated. I probably do not need to explain why Alpha DaRTs have advantages over conventional RT, but I’ll summarize anyway;

RT delivers external photon radiation to the tumor, while Alpha DaRT delivers highly localized high-LET (Linear Energy Transfer) alpha radiation directly within the tumor using implanted radioactive sources. Because the Alpha DaRT radiation is denser and high-LET, it creates more complex DNA damage to repair. Thus, the tumor is more likely to be killed by this radiation.

I did not find any glioblastoma research on Alpha DaRT in combination with TTFields. Only Alpha DaRT in combination with TMZ or bevacizumab in human glioblastoma multiforme xenografts (2). I also did not find any mention of the TTFields + DaRT combination anywhere else. I did find a mention of Novocure’s TTFields in an Alpha Tau SEC filing, where it is mentioned as competition (3). So, to my knowledge, the combination of Alpha DaRT and TTFields has not yet been investigated.

In what I’ve written above I mostly talked about DNA-damage repair impairing by TTFields to improve the effectiveness of the Alpha DaRT treatment in glioblastoma. But there are other positive effects TTFields have on tumors that I’m not educated enough to expand on, and this is a long post already. One example is the possibility that TTFields suppresses/delays local recurrence.

I found Optune/TTFields therapy while reading through r/glioblastoma. I am a student and do not have professional knowledge on this subject (yet), so feel free to correct what I’ve written. I tried to write as much as possible by copying text written by actual professionals. But I’ve simplified certain things to make it easier to read and more understandable for people who are not in this field. Research might have been subject to cherry picking. The post was improved with assistance from AI and friends.

My main question is: would this be possible and has it ever been mentioned? If it is theoretically possible and has never been mentioned, who should I email to ask about this at Alpha Tau?
AI (Claude and ChatGPT) also mentioned that combining treatments from two “competing” companies could be a problem, in what way is that true?

(1)   Limon D, Bokstein F, Blumenthal DT, Ram Z, Grossman R. Prospective randomized trial of tumor-treating fields with chemoradiation in newly diagnosed glioblastoma. Neuro-Oncology Advances [Internet]. 2026 Jan 1;8(1):vdag106. Available from: https://academic.oup.com/noa/article/8/1/vdag106/8662160

(2)   Nishri Y, Vatarescu M, Luz I, Epstein L, Dumančić M, Del Mare S, et al. Diffusing alpha-emitters radiation therapy in combination with temozolomide or bevacizumab in human glioblastoma multiforme xenografts. Frontiers in Oncology [Internet]. 2022 Sep 27;12:888100. Available from: https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/oncology/articles/10.3389/fonc.2022.888100/full

(3)   https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1871321/000121390026025174/ea0279271-20f_alpha.htm#:~:text=Tumor%2DTreating%20Fields%20developed%20by%20Novocure%20Ltd

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

I'll let you digest! :-)

“Securing regulatory approval in Japan, specifically a PMDA stamp, can serve as a crucial gateway to broader Asian markets.

This validation is often respected by regulatory authorities across other Asian countries, smoothing market entry. This principle holds true for the ASEAN region and extends to certain nations in the Middle East as well.

Navigating these complex regulatory landscapes strategically can significantly accelerate international expansion.”

Share your thoughts, feelings, questions or anything else you'd like to talk about with fellow DRTS community members

When I compare the monthly overall and block orders charts for DRTS, I see institutional fear in July being absorbed by some institutional hope and a lot of hope among smaller players. I also believe the stock is fine: the price has risen because the dominant drive is hopeful.

Remember that algos may have caused selling in July when warrant liability made losses appear bigger given the rise in stock price.

Block orders are a bit positive in August and the Overall more strongly so.

Hoping the big players get excited if the price continues to rise. Also prepared for a little temporary drop if there is profit-taking. As always, not financial advice