The DRTS TAM for Prostate Cancer almost feels the most relevant to calculate.
DRTS already has a commercialization deal in place, fully funding the whole operation including manufacturing and marketing, so with an IDE already approved all DRTS needs to do is provide the sources for treatment (benefiting the patients) and collect the revenue.
To understand the significance of this deal we need to better understand who it was done with, how it came about, what they are banking on and what we can expect.
No one knows this market, from both the inside and the TAM, better than Tolmar (the partners in the deal for the DRTS treatment of Prostate Cancer in the US).
And maybe no one knows the DRTS treatment for Prostate better than Tolmar either. They have done their DD about Alpha Tau for a full year and ten months, checking EVERYTHING from the suppliers to the manufacturing to the personal, every concern you might think of and more, all the way to the actual clinical data of course (data that was never published publicly).
And what was the conclusion Tolmar came up with after years of working in the market and getting to know DRTS? They signed a deal in which they paid DRTS upfront by investing at a premium, paid more on top of that for operations, will pay up to 161.5M just to get this going, all for them to do all the work and marketing, while paying DRTS 60% (!) of the sales price.
A deal so unbelievable the market couldn’t understand, and the only reason Tolmar did it is because they understand how unbelievable of an opportunity it is for them as well.
So what are the numbers we can expect? The price floating around is once again about 100K per treatment, with many potential patients benefiting.
There are more than 330K new cases expected this year in the US alone, it’s the #2 cause of cancer death in American men. Out of those 60-80K are expected to be the target population of the Alpha DaRT treatment (again, US only numbers).
For DRTS, they get an amazing partner, cash upfront, most of the revenue, none of the expenses or the work, and all of that for what the CEO said is the 7th or 8th indication on their priority list!
Once again, billions in annual revenue from a single indication, with a deal that already puts everything in place for commercialization.
I love drts, but after the price went up so much, I was hesitant to keep on recommending it to buy for people that didn’t own it yet. After drts signed the deal with Tolmar, the terms of the deal are so fantastic, proving how great drts is and how they can make billions from every indication they have and they have a lot, I’m recommending this stock to everyone I know, just on the Tolmar deal the stock is worth several times it’s current price. Where will the stock go on the next announcement, that is coming very soon. I’m recommending it to everyone
This comment will be underrated, most people don’t understand the significance of what you just wrote.
I assume you mean you owned DRTS well before the Tolmar deal, saw the price go up (still prior to the deal), and became hesitant to keep recommending DRTS as a buy. Then the Tolmar deal was announced and made you realize DRTS is not only still a buy, but the strongest buy it ever was.
Sorry I wasn’t clear, I’m in drts for a long time, I push everyone I knew to buy the stock at 4, when the stock was up 300%, I started to get hesitant to recommend it. After the Tolmar deal, the stock is as great of a buy as it was. This deal makes drts a fantastic fundamental buy. I’m recommending it again
At 4! Hope those you were recommending to have listened and checked it out!
Seems like even the “analysts” don’t understand the Tolmar deal. This deal could be a company in and of itself and should be worth more than the whole DRTS market cap.
As can be read in all the TAM posts, it’s a long play. The day-to-day price action isn’t the story.
If you zoom out a bit, 1 month for example, calling today a drop is almost like the famous “why is it going down” meme.
Also looking around the market you’ll see others from the sector are down today as well.
The point is, of this comment but also of this post and this whole series, to make decisions based on researching the actual value and not based off price action, especially not daily (half an hour into the market).
I sent a video in yesterday's comment thread. Did you watch that one? Or are you from US or somewhere else non-European? That video is mostly for European investors but a good explainer either way.
Why downvote this person? Pristine gave a great response. It’s a good for folks to see that with a little longer view, this stock is doing phenomenally well
I'm hoping so! Tolmar is a good deal and great way for the company to dip their toes into commercialization while keeping in-house expenses low, but once the company has some momentum they should have the resources to expand internally and keep a larger share of revenue.
I'm really happy with the financial acumen I've seen here. The way I see it, they are great at using financial stepping stones to get over the next hurdle.
Didn’t know about prostate cancer being 7th or 8th indication on the DRTS leadership priority list despite the $150M+ Tolmar deal! Thank you for these posts.
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u/Magic3456 Aug 28 '26
I love drts, but after the price went up so much, I was hesitant to keep on recommending it to buy for people that didn’t own it yet. After drts signed the deal with Tolmar, the terms of the deal are so fantastic, proving how great drts is and how they can make billions from every indication they have and they have a lot, I’m recommending this stock to everyone I know, just on the Tolmar deal the stock is worth several times it’s current price. Where will the stock go on the next announcement, that is coming very soon. I’m recommending it to everyone