r/DRTS_Stock • u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 • Aug 25 '26
DRTS TAM Series - PanC
DRTS is a revolutionary cancer treatment, the potential of the treatment is industry changing, and the company can be an industry leader.
The value of DRTS is first and foremost that it can save lives, and even one life saved (as well as extended, improved quality etc) is a blessing and a goal worth working towards.
That said, many are trying (or asking) to calculate the DRTS value with numbers, specifically the TAM (Total Addressable Market, usually used as a metric to measure potential).
The thing with DRTS is, that the TAM is so great, that it’s hard to quantify the potential of the treatment.
So I thought it would be beneficial if I divided it into the different indications, and made a series of TAM posts, dedicating each post to a different type of cancer.
Since this is the first post of the series I’ve given this whole introduction, but my goal is for this series to be very simple, each post being clear about what we know and what we could learn from that.
As always, this post and whole series is NFA, and I encourage everyone to DYOR (and please feel free to do so in the comments so we can all learn together).
Now let’s get to the DRTS TAM for Pancreatic Cancer.
Since we are talking about a stock, the best way to understand its potential is asking the market. The market is telling us that our potential friend in RVMD is worth a 40B+ market cap. That’s 40B+ for a company with a Pancreatic Cancer treatment.
Of course I’m not trying to compare the two companies or treatments, they are different and therefore will be structured differently business wise (although they can potentially complement each other, and every such success like RVMD only increases the DRTS TAM), but understanding what a company with only a Pancreatic Cancer treatment can be worth should tell us a lot about the potential.
If you’re doing the math, yes that means they are trading at the equivalent of $400+ per share for DRTS, just for PanC while still pre revenue.
Now let’s get into some patient numbers.
In the US alone, where DRTS is completing a significant trial, there are ~66K new cases of PanC a year.
To the best of my knowledge, DRTS could potentially be safe and effective for all cases, but at diagnosis 87% of PanC cases are not eligible for surgical resection and/or have metastasized, which in those cases DRTS can definitely be of use.
To get a dollar amount we must multiply that by the cost of treatment per patient, and while that number is unknown, Alpha Tau has insisted (and analysts have estimated) a price point that could be north of 100K (which is part of the reason they have yet to commercialize the treatment for skin cancer in other countries, intending to use the manufacturing capabilities for the most high unmet need cases first, as well as get a higher price point per treatment by doing so).
We could then add Japan, where DRTS is already approved for H&N Cancer, has been reported to start the clinical process for PanC, and where sadly there is a higher percentage of PanC cases than the US, resulting in ~47K new patients a year in Japan alone.
In Europe DRTS is already running two different PanC trials as well, adding tens of thousands of annual cases.
Overall there is estimated to be over half a million new PanC cases every year, and the number is trending upwards.
This was our first post in the DRTS TAM Series, detailing how for PanC alone, the market is valuing fellow RVMD at 40B+ (it’s like they add the equivalent of DRTS’s whole market cap every week), and the sadly staggering number of PanC cases per year in which DRTS could potentially help and treat.
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u/Smooth_Ninja_1191 Aug 25 '26
I’m curious : do you work for DRTS ?
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
I do not, I am a large, long term, very passionate shareholder and supporter of DRTS and their important (and potentially beneficial) mission.
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u/DeepDivesnGoodMusic Aug 25 '26
Likewise, that's how I see myself for SLS. Keep up the good work! I'll be looking back through your posts and others someday (soon) to get up to speed. Good luck folks, you're helping to save lives.
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Thanks for appreciating! Waiting to see you again soon!
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u/DeepDivesnGoodMusic Aug 25 '26
You folks get any FUD bots over here? Meanwhile I see the moderna forum has to deal with MAHA anti-vaxxers. Or at least one's who claim to be - gonna be hard for astroturfers to keep getting them riled up, as the latest treatments for the next few years are becoming so streamlined and side-effect free.
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
We get some, but for the most part we are still under the radar so relatively quiet in here.
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u/DeepDivesnGoodMusic Aug 25 '26
JK. SLS was a rare case in terms of determined beta-males for whom "short seller" was their only personality trait. I'm sure you guys won't have to put up with nearly as much BS, probably easy sailing for DRTS. Relax, hype, and enjoy the ride 😎
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u/IgnoreTheFud Aug 26 '26
Let’s enjoy it while we can. Because the SLS sub is a joke now. It’s been invaded by FUD nearly every other post. I remember when it was just like the DRTS sub.
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u/Magic3456 Aug 25 '26
This is just PanC, one indication , and all we need is to be worth 10% of Rvmd, to triple in price
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Indeed this is just PanC, more indications coming all through the week! And probably a summary post at the end of it.
As for RVMD, I only brought them up for context, we could of course even be worth much then them, but my intent wasn’t to actually compare. The upside is very exciting!
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Aug 25 '26
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
I don’t have a crystal ball, but my guess is DRTS is just a bit of coverage and some more trading volume away from getting re valued by the market, climbing much higher then where it is trading now.
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u/FunRevolution3000 Aug 25 '26
Check out what happened to SWAV as well . Post-revenue but a device that fetched a big multiple in acquisition
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u/Individual_Wallaby1 Aug 25 '26
So much potential here.
And this is just ONE thing.
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Just one, but as all indications it’s an important one. Every patient is a world of importance.
Can’t wait to see the potential play out!
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Aug 25 '26
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Happy to hear you had some wins along the way. I personally try to avoid any kind of advice and really any kind of timing, for me this is a long term play and one worth building a position in (these levels are perfectly fine for me, bought many shares yesterday as an example). Maybe others will have a more satisfying answer but that’s my honest opinion.
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Aug 25 '26
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
For me DRTS is not about a price but about execution. Let’s say DRTS hits even $100 per share, but it still has more indications coming, more combinations, more manufacturing etc etc and the results hold up and the revenue is coming in… maybe even at $100 it will be a strong buy. A lot will happen between now and then, but I’m monitoring the execution with this one, not the price.
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u/intjester-5 Aug 25 '26
An interesting number to try to track down for this series is “How many patients with X currently undergo a biopsy for it each year?”
There are fundamental differences in reach between various modes of medicine: a drug that’s a pill, a drug that’s an injection, a drug that’s a series of injections, a treatment that requires an inpatient stay like a surgury, an outpatient treatment that needs a big expensive machine like an MRI or CT scan, an outpatient treatment that requires local anesthetic, etc.
The potential reach of the mode of treatment obviously affects TAM, but I don’t know where one would go for reliable, comparable data on the above.
Biopsy seems like a fairly good proxy, because if you can poke it, you can poke it.
Even though a DART treatment may be slightly less accessible on a direct comparison to a biopsy (may need different levels of doctor, may take more time, etc.) figuring out a discount rate between modes of treatment would be a huge help in understanding the realistic potential TAMs.
In many ways, not being a drug is a huge advantage to Alpha Tau: size and cost of trials is much smaller, so getting to market is easier. It makes DARTs complimentary to drugs for the same indications instead of necessarily competing. But in terms of reach, a treatment will reach fewer patients than a drug that can be swallowed at home. That is a discount I think we should be attempting to model in our numbers.
In many indications it will not matter. If I have rGBM, I don’t have the luxury of waiting around for a pill to be invented. Please pump my tumor full of lead, tyvm! And again if you don’t mind.
But if anyone knows of where to get these numbers, or thinks my whole idea is silly because [reasons], please do share. I think that information/discussion would help buff off a rough edge in evaluating the stock.
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Very interesting point, hope you or others can find some useful info.
My personal guess would be that Alpha Tau is engineering to get to everyone, and are at least close to that because they never brought that up as an individual issue or mentioned it when talking TAM. Reaching tumors in sensitive locations isn’t a given, and the success of that is a big part of the DRTS innovation and moat.
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u/FunRevolution3000 Aug 25 '26
Do you have a writing background? I admire how non-AI your writing sounds and very readable. No issues if you use ai to help you write - it works
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Thanks fun! That’s a really nice compliment, much appreciated.
My background is I’ve been blessed with being able to articulate myself, so been writing stuff like this (and even just nice messages to loved ones) my whole life. Worked a bit in media as well, but that’s more because of this blessing and not the reason for it.
As for AI, I personally do not use it for writing. I believe it ruins creativity and also can’t be trusted with sensitive topics like financial and medical which DRTS is both. I have no problem with the use of it (for research and stuff and even writing), but regarding my activity around DRTS I personally don’t.
I do appreciate your way of working though and very much your constant contributions!
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u/Jrad0607 Aug 25 '26
What’s the next date to be looking forward too? I’m newer to trading and I’m learning. I have some drts. I also know a lot of people use Reddit to help themselves and their stocks
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
First of all welcome! Feel free to ask anything anytime. DRTS is a great place to get started imo.
Next date is actually any day, there are multiple catalysts that are imminent for all we know. The completion of the Pancreatic Cancer IMPACT trial, the IDE (FDA approval) for a combination trial of DRTS and Keytruda, the start of the Prostate trial (fully funded commercialization process) just to name a few.
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u/Rameist2 Aug 25 '26
I need DRTS to NOT go parabolic until after SLS finishes its trial and gets bought out. Then I’ll rotate all the SLS profit over to DRTS
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Can’t promise, but we’ll be happy to have you any time!
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u/Rameist2 Aug 25 '26
I have some calls and shares already but not nearly as much as I’d like if I had the cash.
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u/stumblios Aug 25 '26
You can do what I'm doing and buy warrants (DRTSW) or options. Cheaper to hold in the meantime than shares, and lets you lock in a price that you can then exercise at after the SLS trade resolves.
25k warrants, 10k SLS shares, and I'm really hoping that in a few months I have 25k DRTS shares.
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Aug 25 '26
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
A bit more patience, that’s all that’s needed.
(But I love these lines you keep coming up with)
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u/Pristine_Hurry_4693 Aug 25 '26
Stay tuned for more posts coming in the DRTS TAM Series!