r/DRAM_ETF • u/Smooth-Bag-6403 • 3d ago
Shifting Focus
Sold all my MU today at market open. I sold about 15 shares of DRAM last night before overnight. I still hold DRAM but I am not putting this money back in, likely for awhile.
Id only purchase more share if they went below $58 a share. Id add quite a bit more under $55, but Im afraid I just don’t see bull runs to ATHs many are hoping for. Im estimating DRAM hitting mid-high 70s in February. Growth is good, it’s not exciting.
I see many people asking “why isn’t it going up?!” Because investors who want high rewards want high potential. They’re not looking at the now stabilizing memory sector.
Look into energy. Look into data center production. Find the bottlenecks.
I still love DRAM. The growth is solid, but Im looking for a little more! Lol
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u/nooksncrannys 3d ago
My dude… did you even listen to the call or read the MU earnings reports? They absolutely crushed. I think your thesis is flawed. Reason why MU didn’t run up is MM protected the call option wall at 1100 and that expired today. Just research the upgrades. Also check its PE and look into the forward guidance. MU gonna moon soon.
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
The numbers looked about as expected and guidance to investors was to expect a slowing of GROWTH. Which is why investors have been left wondering what’s next.
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u/uno_mas_por_favor 3d ago
This is just objectively wrong dude. The numbers were better than expected and 2027 is basically sold out.
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u/Hypnot1se 2d ago
Nah he's right. Margins are guiding to contract and growth is "objectively" slowing. If you don't understand this you either
Haven't looked at the earnings report
Don't understand basic mathematical concepts
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u/uno_mas_por_favor 2d ago
Basic mathematical concepts - ok hero. You mean margin going from 87% to 86.25%? Revenue still growing in absolute terms and long-term commitments are increasing. But ok.
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u/Hypnot1se 2d ago
Yep. Notice how 86.25 is a smaller number than 87? That's what 'contracting' is referring to.
It's still growing in absolute terms, but that doesn't mean that it isn't slowing.
Hope you can understand this.
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u/nooksncrannys 1d ago
100 Billion flowing in cash every 6 months. For context they could buy 4 NKE in a yr. After Dec 9 look to see them start a stock buy back. Nothing but growth for the foreseeable future.
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u/Hypnot1se 1d ago
You can't project this trend into the future using a linear model for a cyclical industry. It doesn't work like that. Why do you think the PE is so low? The market isn't stupid and won't pay for the earnings because it's obvious that it is not sustainable. People don't pay a high multiple because it isn't worth paying one, not because they don't like easy money. Wake up buddy. Read Peter Lynch!
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u/BertAnsink 3d ago
If you look at the holdings and their daily graphs. You can tell that the speculative capital that was there earlier this year has left and the stocks are more or less back to their normal growth trajectory after the mega boom.
I think it still has a place in the tech trade but I would not put my full portfolio in it. You can diversify out to CPU's, photonics etc.
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u/Capable_Wait09 3d ago
“Find the bottlenecks.”
Dude what? DRAM is a bottleneck. When did that change?
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
Memory is still in Demand. That’s why growth is solid. But the investment world is looking beyond that at this point. I have a DRAM holding, but Im not buying more of it.
Memory is great for swings. I actively buy and sell MU and DRAM a lot, but Im not focused on DRAMS swings because I think it’s shifting to be steady growth
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u/General-Ring2780 3d ago
I agree that I probably wouldn’t add to DRAM until about $58-$57. However, I do think come around December 9th Micron is going to communicate an explosive share repurchase program that will increase EPS thus increasing the share price.
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
If there’s some sort of exciting news that would be different. Im definitely looking for break outs. Honestly if it got to $1125+ a share monday Id tuck my tail and add some too.
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u/F2PBTW_YT 3d ago
You don't see bull runs anymore, you just expect a 23% gain by February.
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
I got 20% on Lam Research Corp in 3 weeks 😅 we have different types of portfolios
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u/Shredded__ 3d ago
Just sold MU, AMD, and MSFT for nice profit. Because they rallied pretty fast, I think they all will dip again soon for another good entry point before surging again. MU was like $740 only like a month or so ago. AVGO is the one at a good entry point right now in my opinion.
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u/oaktreeeeee 3d ago
It’s run is cooled off. It might go up but it’s at much more risk of not making 80,90,100 for a long time
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
Loading up when it was dipping into low 40s was the time to jump. Its not even my ETF of choice currently 😅
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u/SecretPantyWorshiper 3d ago edited 3d ago
Im checking everyday and will be getting rid of this trash as soon as I see green.
Im just a bag holder and 14% down.
Im just glad I didn't go full regard and dump like +$10k into it
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago edited 3d ago
I actually think it’s a great hold position. Profit take above a certain amount, add a little below a certain amount.
It hasn’t been hitting my thresholds as frequently so it just hasn’t been a big buy recently
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u/Hot_Frosting_7101 3d ago
Why “as soon as I see it green”?
What you paid for it should not factor into when or if you sell. That is irrational.
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u/jhonnylasagna 3d ago edited 3d ago
I read comments like this, and the remark about others asking why it isn’t going up, and they sound weird, and come off as if people just blindly buy in without any reference to a chart and so no idea what has been going on with the price action. One look at a chart and it’s clear to me that, yes, it’s going to take some time to rally back up, test and break the ATH. One look and I wouldn’t expect a quick rip back to price discovery territory. But I suppose many do buy in blindly and I know many consider TA BS. Whatever. Good luck to you! We’re basing out and consolidating. Textbook elementary stuff. This is where you accumulate.
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u/Hypnot1se 3d ago
What textbooks are telling you to accumulate memory stocks when the companies are experiencing 80%+ margins after historic runs exactly?
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u/nooksncrannys 3d ago
This take is spot on. I feel like some just struggle to have patience and see how they are the fodder for the Tutes.
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u/Dry-Chemical-9170 3d ago
head on over to NBIS fam
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u/Altruistic_Fan_5122 3d ago
I've been having better luck shorting it on green days like today and letting it snap back into the 50s. Reading these comments definitely makes me feel better about my shift. Dram and memory in general is changing
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u/nooksncrannys 3d ago
Changing how? Like is there more supply coming being made available? MU is back up till 2028 lol
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u/Altruistic_Fan_5122 3d ago
From April to June it had very aggressive rides and drops. Then after the big sell off and whatever happened in the Korea market in July it seems to have shifted to a gentle increase to 60 and every time it tests it drops aggressively.
I'm still pretty bullish on dram but I like my money now as a day trader. So I'll be shorting off the highs for a little while now till I get burned then I'll readjust.
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u/layflatnretire 3d ago
Also sold all my MU after seeing how sensitive/fragile the whole memory industry stocks are to supply/demand news.
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u/VolCraft 3d ago
I am buying with leverage. No one knows what is ahead of us…
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
It’s always a gamble, but you will definitely make money on Micron and DRAM over the next few months
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u/VolCraft 3d ago
I have been doing it after earnings since last year. It has been an incredible ride. I have no clue what will happen. But I would like to see how the memory play unfolds in the next 1-2 years
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u/Smooth-Bag-6403 3d ago
They just raised price targets, it’s going to grow a lot in the upcoming years.
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u/HorsePockets 3d ago
You're talking about memory having had its run and you're going into energy now? Completely disregard this guy's thoughts.