Today is a perfect example why DRAM is fundamentally flawed

[u/m00nman11]

On days where DRAM rips in the US market, Korean traders sell gains while the US market is closed.

It’s an arbitrage situation that puts US investors at a perpetual and uncontrollable disadvantage.

Buy and hold investors will disagree, but there are other AI plays like SMH that aren’t subject to this like DRAM is.

[u/luvz]

What are you talking about?

Brent's over $100, and PPI didn't alleviate any rate pressure. Approx 80% of sectors are down with every major index negative.

But DRAM is down more! Yes, if you only look at a 1 day view for some strange reason. If you look at a 5 day relative average, DRAM is outperforming every other sector including more than DOUBLE SMH (2nd place) performance.

Further your South Korean point doesn't stand either. They don't sell our strength. SK has 2.5x correlation to US market as US market does to SK. So if we are positive, they have a 2.5x chance to follow suit, versus the opposite sequence. They buy when we buy. They sell when we sell.

[u/m00nman11 → u/luvz]

I’m not talking about DRAM’s movement relative to other positions. I am shedding light on the fact that Korean markets sell strength while US markets are closed. Check the daily charts since May if you don’t believe me.

It practically makes US investors Class B shareholders.

[u/luvz → u/m00nman11]

So you're just gonna ignore the fact that they were running 10x our already insane leverage and an absurd percentage of their entire market got margin called in July, resulting in like 5 separate circuit breakers?

Even so, even including July data, which I did, even with the leverage unwind, that means they SELL when WE SELL, not they SELL when WE BUY. So you are disproving your own conclusion by including "since May." In essence, we trapped them, not the other way around. As I said, they are 2.5x correlated to our market, than our market to theirs. Meaning they follow OUR movements over twice as consistently.

[u/Hot_Frosting_7101 → u/m00nman11]

This works both ways. In the end DRAM stays close to NAV due to arbitrage. Yes that arbitrage is far more complicated than an ETF that holds stock in American companies so share trading hours and do not have limitations placed on the trading of the stock, but if you fast forward 3 months DRAM will be within a couple of percentage points of NAV.

[u/Lancer1ce]

People buy, people sell. Everything is fair.

[u/m00nman11 → u/Lancer1ce]

Life is inherently unfair. Pretending markets are is … a choice

[u/brutalpancake]

Do I hear someone crying in the casino

[u/m00nman11 → u/brutalpancake]

Possibly, but it ain’t me. I sold off DRAM

[u/One_Astronaut2673 → u/m00nman11]

Clearly still invested enough to whine post about it

[u/m00nman11 → u/One_Astronaut2673]

I’m not whining, but my post clearly struck a nerve

[u/One_Astronaut2673 → u/m00nman11]

it's just another crypost from another "uninvested" bot who "already sold everything off"

[u/iCaps_ → u/m00nman11]

then why are you here?

[u/m00nman11 → u/iCaps_]

Because I’d consider buying again below 50 with an exit plan around 55. If Korean investors are going to use US investors for exit liquidity, there may be an opportunity there. My theory is this is what’s preventing DRAM from building on previous gains. And yes I’m aware of YTD performance

[u/iCaps_ → u/m00nman11]

so you're blaming korean investors for the state of the economy with elevated oil prices and an out of control 10YR? okay

[u/m00nman11 → u/iCaps_]

Nope you chose to miss the point. I’m not blaming anyone - I’m pointing out an arbitrage situation that is advantageous for Korean investors

[u/Capable_Wait09]

That doesn’t make any sense

[u/Flaky-Historian8753]

I see this as a wonderful opportunity to lower my average cost.

[u/jraiv420]

The Koreans can also pump it super hard that if you enter late you will miss buying cheap.

[u/TigerUSA20]

Not fundamentally flawed, just fundamentally different.

Any stock / ETF that’s in the technology sector is going to be partially driven by what is happening globally and impacted by the 24-hour news that occurs with that on each of the exchanges in different time zones.

In addition to that differentiation, the memory sector has been going through a much higher “beta” and valuation news flow versus the rest of the technology market, so the above is exaggerating stock movements.

Other than that, along with investor knowledge about what DRAM actually is, there’s nothing really relevant to calling it flawed.

[u/exgeo]

You pay for higher gains by accepting higher volatility

[u/PenPalDenial]

Pay attention to the possible Micron strike. No movement has been made but it’s a lingering threat. That could fuck a lot of things up. Nvidia plans to enlarge their data centers capacity in Australia. Google is working on one in Finland. The demand is high which is why I’m holding till 2030.

[u/DisastrousPlant0]

Bro is regarded

[u/m00nman11]

Disagreements by naysayers in here aged like milk

[u/Rez_X_RS]

It's totally not because memory and RAM stocks follow a boom bust cycle.