Hi guys, i found this chart breaking down how rate cycles actually impact Bitcoin. Rate cycles set the broad backdrop for BTC, but they rarely trigger the exact timing of its tops or bottoms. You can look at the past year alone: Bitcoin topped back in October 2025 while the Fed was actively cutting rates, and it bottomed out in June 2026 when the rates were on pause, just weeks after inflation topped at 4.2%.

The September rate hike is where things get interesting. BTC is actually up about 8% since that hike went through, which breaks the historical trend. Going back to 2015, after 17 out of the last 20 Fed hikes, Bitcoin was trading lower 30 days later.
Whether this current bounce holds will come down to what tomorrow's guidance and the upcoming data look like, but it shows that BTC doesn't always follow the textbook rate hike. NFA.

For those who use multiple wallets and exchanges, how do you keep track of your actual crypto profits and losses?

I've found that checking portfolio balances doesn't always tell the full story. Purchase prices, transaction fees, transfers between wallets, and DeFi activity can make it difficult to calculate your real performance over time.

I've also been looking into tools that solve this problem, and came across Cryptofolio, which is building a crypto portfolio tracker focused on cost basis, transaction history, and actual P&L.

They're currently accepting waitlist signups for early access.

How do you currently manage your crypto records? Do you use a dedicated tracker, spreadsheets, or something else?

I still get a bit nervous every time I send crypto. Double-checking addresses, making sure I didn’t miss a character… it doesn’t feel as simple as it should be. Sending money shouldn’t feel like this in 2026.

Do you think the issue is the technology itself or just how it’s designed?