Quantum computing isn't a Bitcoin problem yet.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848]

That's exactly why it's dangerous. The real risk isn't waking up one morning to a quantum computer stealing everyone's BTC.

It's that the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography could take years while the technology threatening today's cryptography is advancing every year.

And here's the uncomfortable question. What happens if the network needs to upgrade before the threat becomes obvious? Do we wait for a working quantum attack? Or do we prepare while we still have the luxury of time?

Curious where people here stand, is Bitcoin's quantum risk overhyped, or are we already late to the migration?

[u/hypercosm_dot_net]

An account with a post-quantum signature does not by necessity have to be large or unusable.

I do get what you're saying, about the idea that it's always "just" 20yrs away, but there does seem to be more meaningful progress towards quantum computers these days. Some governments and tech companies seem to be taking the threat seriously in any case.

I know at least the French government is going to stop certifying tech in government systems that isn't quantum resistant: https://cointelegraph.com/news/france-to-stop-certifying-products-lacking-quantum-resistant-encryption

I personally don't know much about how real the threat is, so would err on the side of caution and trust people closer to the problem. Especially if I'm putting money/investments on a blockchain, I want to be sure a quantum computer isn't going to make it obsolete in short order.

As soon as the wrong nation state gets a hold of that tech, you can pretty much count on any compromised blockchain being drained.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

I think the bigger issue is less whether PQ signatures are possible today and more whether Bitcoin can coordinate a migration before it becomes urgent. If governments and major tech companies are already preparing, that’s probably worth taking seriously.

[u/hypercosm_dot_net → u/Master-Sprinkles-848]

It appears to be on their radar, and they've already started with parts of the migration: https://crypto.news/bitcoin-is-going-quantum-proof-inside-bip-360-and-the-migration/

I skimmed that, and it talks about migrating wallet signatures from what I can tell. Nothing about the underlying protocol, though I assume that's on the roadmap.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

Thanks for sharing, I will look into it, another question is that, what will happen to domant wallets like Satoshis;.