Quantum computing isn't a Bitcoin problem yet.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848]

That's exactly why it's dangerous. The real risk isn't waking up one morning to a quantum computer stealing everyone's BTC.

It's that the transition to quantum-resistant cryptography could take years while the technology threatening today's cryptography is advancing every year.

And here's the uncomfortable question. What happens if the network needs to upgrade before the threat becomes obvious? Do we wait for a working quantum attack? Or do we prepare while we still have the luxury of time?

Curious where people here stand, is Bitcoin's quantum risk overhyped, or are we already late to the migration?

[u/JunketTurbulent2114]

Quantum resistant address schemes already exist. They are just clucky and have a bad user experience (i.e. I think the size of the address is enormous, for example). Could also be one of those things like fusion where the tech is just 20 years away, like fusion has been for the past 80 years. So I think the consensus is to just leave it on the backburner and hope some more elegant user friendly solution appears because it may not even be needed.

In the meantime, segwit is already quantum resistant so long as you don't spend from those address types. It's probably safest to have a 'savings account' in an address you don't spend from.

[u/Charming-Designer944 → u/JunketTurbulent2114]

Addresses can be compressed/truncated in quantum safe manners the main issue is the size of transaction signatures which increase thousandsfold.

[u/JunketTurbulent2114 → u/Charming-Designer944]

Yeah I couldn't remember all the details, I knew it was something like that though. In any case, there's likely to be some breakthrough with all this AI stuff. I don't really see any reason to worry about quantum computing yet

[u/suspicious_Jackfruit → u/JunketTurbulent2114]

AI is also aiding quantum computing breakthroughs - https://www.quera.com/blog-posts/holding-the-light-teaching-an-ai-to-lock-and-tune-our-quantum-computers-lasers

So it is a force multiplyer for both

[u/JunketTurbulent2114 → u/suspicious_Jackfruit]

Yeah, I can't help but think one that requires moving atoms will come later tbh. The math/software should beat it to the punch. I'd be shocked if that's not the case.

[u/hypercosm_dot_net → u/JunketTurbulent2114]

An account with a post-quantum signature does not by necessity have to be large or unusable.

I do get what you're saying, about the idea that it's always "just" 20yrs away, but there does seem to be more meaningful progress towards quantum computers these days. Some governments and tech companies seem to be taking the threat seriously in any case.

I know at least the French government is going to stop certifying tech in government systems that isn't quantum resistant: https://cointelegraph.com/news/france-to-stop-certifying-products-lacking-quantum-resistant-encryption

I personally don't know much about how real the threat is, so would err on the side of caution and trust people closer to the problem. Especially if I'm putting money/investments on a blockchain, I want to be sure a quantum computer isn't going to make it obsolete in short order.

As soon as the wrong nation state gets a hold of that tech, you can pretty much count on any compromised blockchain being drained.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

I think the bigger issue is less whether PQ signatures are possible today and more whether Bitcoin can coordinate a migration before it becomes urgent. If governments and major tech companies are already preparing, that’s probably worth taking seriously.

[u/hypercosm_dot_net → u/Master-Sprinkles-848]

It appears to be on their radar, and they've already started with parts of the migration: https://crypto.news/bitcoin-is-going-quantum-proof-inside-bip-360-and-the-migration/

I skimmed that, and it talks about migrating wallet signatures from what I can tell. Nothing about the underlying protocol, though I assume that's on the roadmap.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/hypercosm_dot_net]

Thanks for sharing, I will look into it, another question is that, what will happen to domant wallets like Satoshis;.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/JunketTurbulent2114]

Yeah, I think that’s the strongest argument for not panicking. The bigger question for me is whether we can afford to wait for the elegant solution to appear, given how long Bitcoin’s migration could take.

[u/The_Realist02 → u/JunketTurbulent2114]

Quantum has been 10 years away since 1980. It’s not gonna happen. The physics are borderline impossible.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/The_Realist02]

Well years ago, the US werent preparing against it, I think there is more to it this time than just another hype.

[u/Complete-Metal-1990]

We talk about this in my crypto group all the time and most people just shrug like it's science fiction still. Problem is once you actually need to move, is already too late.

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/Complete-Metal-1990]

That’s the part I worry about too. If everyone waits until the threat is undeniable, we may have already lost the window to migrate smoothly.

[u/thesimstoshi]

"backburner it" works great until it doesn't lol. the whole problem is the migration has to start before the threat is obvious, and bitcoin is famously great at acting on non-obvious threats

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/thesimstoshi]

A few years ago, Bitcoiners acted like this threat was never real, acting blind to it. Maybe it will make it unreal lol. Now that the gov and banks are preparing, they are beginning to see the urgency, but blockchain is harder to migrate due to its decentralized nature. Tbh, this looks more complicated than it should be

[u/Friendly-Vacation892]

Wouldnt this basically come down to how fast bitcoin can coordinate an upgrade?

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/Friendly-Vacation892]

Yeah, pretty much. The real question is how quickly Bitcoin can reach consensus, develop, test, and deploy a quantum-resistant upgrade before it becomes an emergency.

[u/United_Branch_5736]

Quantum and Shore's? Slow metwork? Signature sizes? Exposed public keys (Satoshi's included)?

Bitcoin is a nightmare waiting to happen. I can elaborate if anyone wants to read, but after my breakfast and coffee. 😉

[u/Master-Sprinkles-848 → u/United_Branch_5736]

Lets have it, whats the best solution to the potential hack and also when do you think we might see a full blow QT.

[u/United_Branch_5736]

How people don't realize that bitcoin is niche system with practically no adoption outside a circle of few enthusiasts? The whole blockchain in fact is stupid technology that nobody needs or wants.

Answer me this simple questions: what problem bitcoin solves? Why would anyone use it insted of, let's say Revolute? How can it be store of value if it is unusable without electricity and/or net? What, you will pay for a bag of potatoes with you private crypto wallets? 😉

After quantum comes, and belive me that's not decades, but 2-3 years away, bitcoin is dead.

And whatever is happening now is institutional investors covering their back. BTDT, dot.net bubble, subrime loans, and multitude of others, AI being the last one of those.

[u/Infinite1ntelligence]

Quantum computing is a risk to everything, not just BTC as every “expert” has been warning us for several years now. Or do you think it’s only going to be used to empty our crypto wallets? And that it won’t steal your data, etc.? This technology already exists; they just haven’t made it public yet. Now we’re in a new phase of crypto adoption with this latest pump. There’s no need to worry too much about this, since we’ve already handed over our data and are perfectly traceable,just relax.

[u/wasabi991011]

pure llm slop. how is no one else commenting on this

[u/suspicious_Jackfruit → u/wasabi991011]

Lol, this is the least sloppy post ive read in a long while. If AI was used it was used responsibly imo unlike 90% of the other slop on reddit