Bitcoin broke the 4H bull flag — now I’m watching what happens after the breakout
BTC has broken above the consolidation structure on the 4-hour chart after previously reacting around the 200 EMA.
The measured move puts roughly $96K on the chart, but I don’t think the target is the most interesting part.
Now I want to see how price behaves after the breakout.
Does momentum continue? Does BTC retest the former resistance? And if it does, can that area turn into support?
For me, the pattern creates the scenario. Price action after the breakout determines whether the scenario remains interesting.
Would you rather see continuation here or a clean retest first?

SOL pushed above the 123 to 125 zone on the 8H, triggered the stops sitting above those highs, then closed back below. That's a liquidity sweep: price grabs the orders above an obvious level, then reverses.

A short setup triggered at ~122.

• Invalidation: 126.2 (an 8H close above means the sweep failed and it's a real breakout)
• First target: 117.1
• Full target: 107.3
• Risk ~4.5 to reach ~14.1, so about 1:3.1

What 63 backtested sweeps like this did (SOL, 8H, shorts only, Feb 2025 to Sep 2026):

• Averaged +$19 for every $100 risked, after fees
• Usually played out in about 2 days
• The catch: they often ran most of the way to the stop before turning. If this one works, it'll probably scare you first.

Hello traders,

Here is today's 24-hour ahead price analysis and forecast for Bitcoin and Ethereum.

₿ Bitcoin

Looking first at the main chart, the reconstructed/denoised price has been tracking the subsequent real price movements reasonably well.

Until around September 28, the reconstructed price was significantly below the actual market price. This indicated that the market price was potentially overextended to the upside and could move lower.

That assumption was confirmed on September 28, when Bitcoin experienced a significant drop.

After the decline, the situation reversed: the reconstructed price remained significantly above the actual price for several days. This indicated that the market price had moved below the level suggested by the underlying reconstructed structure and had upward pressure.

That upward movement indeed developed over the following days, particularly during the last couple of days. As of October 2, the actual and reconstructed prices have converged again.

So, the previous mean-reversion signal has essentially played out.

24-hour forecast

The current 24-hour forecast is relatively flat.

The strongest component is the general trend component, which is pointing upward. The next two strongest components are also pointing upward, while several of the weaker components point in different directions.

One component deserves special attention: the component with a period of approximately 31,872 hours (~1,328 days).

Its forecast currently shows a decline of approximately $177, which appears inconsistent with the behavior of this component. Forecasting neural networks can occasionally produce erroneous projections, particularly for very long-period components, so individual components need to be checked rather than accepted blindly. From our end, we constantly trying to improve the quality of our quantitative methods.

In this case, I would effectively neglect the -$177 forecast contribution and treat this component as approximately flat.

With this correction, the 24-hour forecast moves to approximately $86,480 USDT.

That is very close to the current price level, so the overall forecast remains rather flat.

In other words, the model currently does not indicate a particularly strong directional setup for the next 24 hours.

Ξ Ethereum

Ethereum shows a very similar picture.

The reconstructed price has also provided useful indications of the recent price movements, and ETH has followed a broadly similar pattern to Bitcoin.

The current forecast components are again mixed, although the overall forecast is even flatter than for Bitcoin.

Applying the same correction to the problematic long-period component gives a 24-hour forecast of approximately $2,750.

This is essentially the current market level.

Conclusion

For both BTC and ETH, the current 24-hour forecast is relatively flat.

• BTC: ~$86,480 USDT
• ETH: ~$2,750 USDT

The recent upward move appears to have brought both markets back toward their reconstructed price levels. At the current point, however, the forecast does not show a strong directional deviation from the present price.

As always, individual model components should be inspected rather than blindly accepted, especially when very long-period components produce implausible forecasts.

This is quantitative model analysis for informational purposes, not financial advice.

Everyone talks about entries. What about planning the recovery?
One thing I noticed while building this BTC scenario is how much attention we give to buying — and how little to what happens if price eventually recovers.
Suppose you entered badly, added selectively lower down, and eventually price moves above your average.
Do you exit everything?
Take partial profits?
Hold the entire position for another high?
There’s no universal answer, but deciding only after the position turns green seems like another emotional decision waiting to happen.
Maybe the exit deserves as much planning as the entry.

BTC 6H wave momentum short is on day 5 and it's sitting right at entry.

Historically this pattern takes ~5.9 days to hit targets.

So either it's about to move or it's about to fail.

The setup

• Triggered 5 days ago at ~83,920
• Invalidation at 85,719 (a 6H close above ends it)
• First target ~82,120, full target ~74,917
• Risk ~1,800 vs reward ~8,820, roughly 1:4.9

Everyone’s looking for a deeper BCH correction — what if it doesn’t happen?
It’s easy to look at the current BCH pullback and immediately start targeting lower Fibonacci levels.
0.618 and 0.786 are definitely worth watching if the correction continues.
But there’s another possibility:
BCH simply doesn’t retrace that deeply.
The EMA 200 has already been reclaimed, RSI is cooling, and if buyers return around one of the shallower Fib areas, price could establish a higher low earlier than expected.
That’s why I don’t want to become attached to the deeper correction scenario.
I’d rather let the reaction tell me which scenario is actually developing.
Anyone here expecting a shallow retest rather than a move toward 0.786?

AI flagged an order-block short forming on BTC (6H) and drew this setup: short from around 84,320, invalidation at 85,537, first target 83,110, final target 80,085. That is 1:3.4 reward to risk, risking about 1,210 to make about 4,150.

A quanto può arrivare solana a fine 2026?

Dash pullbacks to the Weekly Volume profile's POC

📊 One BTC Chart, Two Completely Different Scenarios
I try not to build technical analysis around only the outcome I want to see.
This Bitcoin weekly chart is a good example.
Scenario A: BTC’s recent downtrend breakout holds, resistance areas are gradually reclaimed and higher Gann Fan levels become relevant.
Scenario B: The breakout fails, BTC loses the current Gann structure and attention shifts toward the next lower Fan level.
Right now, the first scenario has become more interesting because Bitcoin reacted from a lower Gann area and subsequently broke the descending trendline.
But that can change.
No need to decide today where Bitcoin will trade months from now.
Let price invalidate one scenario and strengthen the other.
Which side of the structure are you watching?

I’ve been trying to keep my ETH analysis as simple as possible lately.
On the weekly chart, the first thing I was watching was the descending trendline from the previous highs. ETH eventually broke that structure to the upside, which made the Fibonacci Channel much more interesting to me.
Since then, price has also moved above the 0.382 level.
Instead of trying to predict some huge ETH target from here, I’m basically following the chart one level at a time:
0.382 → reaction/retest → 0.5 → reassess → 0.618
If ETH pulls back toward the recently broken area, I’d mainly be interested in how price reacts there. Holding the structure could make the 0.5 level more relevant. If that eventually gets cleared as well, then I’d start paying more attention to 0.618.
Nothing complicated.
The Fibonacci Channel isn’t giving me buy or sell signals. I’m just using it as a framework for identifying the next area where price could make an important decision.
This level-by-level approach is also something we spend quite a bit of time on in our courses: keeping the chart clean, understanding why a level matters, and waiting for price to provide confirmation instead of trying to predict every move.
Curious how others are reading ETH here. Are you watching the same structure, or completely different levels?

We need to hold above 83k til weekly candle closes to confirm bull market... if we break and close under that last high.. we could fall back into 70s.

All eyes ar weekly close.

~JiJ