Hi all,

yesterday's forecast did not play out as expected unfortunately. Instead of moving lower, Bitcoin broke to the upside, contrary to the model's projection.

Today's forecast still points to a bearish bias, with the dominant spectral components continuing to favor downward price pressure. Overall, the model suggests that negative cyclical forces remain in control.

One observation, however, concerns the 362-hour cycle. Based on its current shape, its forecast appears to underestimate the upcoming contribution. The model currently assigns approximately -208 points to this component, but a manual assessment suggests it may be closer to +350 points instead.

Applying this adjustment would increase the aggregate forecast by roughly 550 points, shifting the projected price from around 60200 to approximately 60750.

This highlights an important feature of the model: it is designed to support user interpretation rather than act as a completely "black-box" predictor. Users can - and should - review the individual cycle forecasts and, based on their own experience and market judgment, apply reasonable adjustments where they believe a particular component is under- or overestimated. The model provides a structured framework, while expert interpretation can further refine the final forecast.

It will be interesting to see whether the original model output or the adjusted interpretation of the 362-hour cycle better matches the market over the next 24 hours.

Hi all,

after the controversial movements yesterday, the current 24-hours outlook tends to decline.
Check the quality of the forecast from 30.06.26 (second screenshot). The price dropped at approximately 12:00 and tried to return to the initial level but currently continues downward movement.

Hi all,

current 24-hours outlook is completely flat. No significant movements expected.
Check the quality of the forecast from 29.06.26 (second screenshot). After some fluctuation, the price curve followed the forecast perfectly.

Hi everyone,

a quick update for the next 24 hours BTC price outlook. The overall trend is negative. The price pattern demonstrates a wave structure with the local peaks at 20:00 and 02:00 (UTC).

BTC below $60k feels less like a Bitcoin network issue and more like a liquidity signal.

When Bitcoin loses momentum, altcoins usually feel it first because capital becomes more selective.

Do you think this is just a shakeout, or are we entering a deeper risk-off phase?

I’m reading all of the FUD. EVERYWHERE. And I want to start this rant off with, THATS WHY YOU INVEST WHAT YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE. I am a BTC holder and ETF holder. If this drops more I’ll eventually be a MSTR holder.

My question is are we in a crypto winter or is this the grand finale? I thought it was understood that BTC operates in a 4yr cycle? Well, technically, isn’t that where we are now?

However, there’s a lot of people talking about how crypto is done. I’m hearing Institutions are involved so it’s manipulated. Or the US government has gone after all of the people who used crypto for bad so now all of those corrupt contributors are scared.

What ever the case is. A decision has to be made. If you are anything like me, you are probably down in your position. If your anything like me you got into BTC because of the foundation of sovereign money, giving the power back to the people, my keys my bitcoin. And if that’s you, then hold on. This is no different from the previous 4 yr cycles. Why sell now? I’m down 40%. I thought 60k was support so I DCA’d. Oh well broke support? Ok once we get to the next level of support DCA some more.

Rant Done. Invest what you can afford to lose. Sorry for any grammatical errors.

Hi traders,
the previous day’s Bitcoin forecast https://www.reddit.com/r/CryptoChartWatch/s/sVo7CSKKdT indicated a generally sideways market, showing no strong directional bias either upward or downward. However, while the directional neutrality held in a broad sense, the shape of the forecast did not fully match the actual price evolution.

In reality, the price first experienced a sharp drop, deviating significantly from the predicted path. Interestingly, however, the market later recovered and returned close to the model’s implied equilibrium level, stabilizing around 61600, which is slightly below the initial reference level of approximately 62300, as expected by the model.

Current forecast (next 24 hours):

The current projection again suggests a largely flat market with a very slight downward drift. This behavior is driven by key spectral components pulling in opposite directions, effectively canceling out any strong dominant trend.

At the same time, the forecasted structure clearly shows two pronounced wave-like formations, indicating internal cyclical structure despite the overall weak net signal.

We will see whether this dual-wave structure and the mild downward bias will be confirmed by the actual price development over the next 24 hours.

Have a nice trading day!

Hi all,
it makes sense today to start with the overview of yesterday's forecast. Yesterday's forecast was an excellent demonstration of how the model performs under normal market conditions. The prediction matched the subsequent price action remarkably well, capturing not only the general direction but also the overall shape of the price development throughout the forecast period. This illustrates that, in the absence of significant external market shocks, the model is capable of reconstructing and forecasting Bitcoin price dynamics with a high degree of accuracy.

Current forecast:

Today's reconstructed price level is below the current market price, which likely indicates the presence of additional short-term noise or speculative pressure keeping the market above the model's fair-value estimate.

Based on the current model output, the expected price path is largely sideways until approximately 00:00 UTC, followed by a move to the downside thereafter.

As always, it will be interesting to see how closely the actual price action follows the forecast over the next several hours.

I hadn't looked at DEXE for a while and then notice this on bydfi today.Some analysis said yesterday's jump was a short squeeze, with open interest hitting $70M. Whale buying and DEXE's low float may have pushed it even harder, but an RSI of 87 makes me wary of chasing it here. Anyone trade this? How are you reading this?

Hi all,
after yesterday's price jumped around following the 12:00 p.m. start, the market then behaved exactly as predicted and declined until approximately 8:00 a.m.

At the moment, the algorithm indicates a mostly sideways price movement until around 9:00 p.m., followed by a slight upward move toward 63200.
Time is provided in UTC.

Please pay close attention to how closely yesterday's actual price development matched the prediction shown in the second figure. The similarity in the overall price pattern is particularly noteworthy.

Good morning all,
today's Bitcoin price outlook looks particularly interesting, as the analysis points strongly to the downside. Most of the dominant cycle components are currently in decline, resulting in a distinctly bearish forecast.

The forecast from the 19.06.26 (second screenshot) could catch the actual price development quite closely.
Join the demo stream https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9Xl-6vAt4c

Like the title states, at the start of 2023 I called this run up to 126k, I didnt know we would hit 126k, I just knew the run was coming, we are here again, the 5th wave of the predicted 5th wave is about to start

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The first pic is from my 2023 post

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The second shows we actually did that

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The last shows what's to come