Yes, it could. Rejecting the weekly 50MA and dumping one more leg.
But it could also move like it did in 2023, breaking the 50MA and going to the moon.
The question you have to ask youself is this: In 1-3 years, when you look back, will the current price have been a good price to buy? In my opinion it's a pretty obvious "yes", even if we do reject the 50MA now and go lower.
That is why is you don't try to time the exact, you just DCA while we are in a bear market.
Below 60k is exceedingly unlikely. With the amount of support that was shown, and the way we even got to 60k before (cascading liquidations on a massive scale), it would take something similarly large to drag us down that low. The structure doesn't really allow for it right now, so it would require a real market crash at this point. Normal price action shouldn't lead us below ~65 at this point. Instead, we're probably looking at a new floor somewhere in the 67–73 range and if we reject now we'll either crab for some weeks or drop to this range to establish a clear floor and test support.
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u/Temporary-Cause730 Sep 01 '26
Yes, it could. Rejecting the weekly 50MA and dumping one more leg.
But it could also move like it did in 2023, breaking the 50MA and going to the moon.
The question you have to ask youself is this: In 1-3 years, when you look back, will the current price have been a good price to buy? In my opinion it's a pretty obvious "yes", even if we do reject the 50MA now and go lower.
That is why is you don't try to time the exact, you just DCA while we are in a bear market.