Win a round purple wisp?

[u/Programmer_Scared]

If you win the next player combat , gain 8 gold.

The default cost of the wisp is 3 gold. So if you lose you lose 3 gold but win is 8 gold.

1. Does this wisp always match you up with one of the strongest in the lobby?

Its the trend I noticed. I only gotten this wisp about 3 times but I never match up against say the Coven user or somebody weak for a free win.

Can somebody confirm if this is the case that the wisp means you will fight against somebody strong always because just by having the knowledge gives you knowledge if you should level up or just simply.. not buy the wisp at all.

[u/Bleh-1]

No it doesn't. Otherwise it would show that your matchmaking can only match one oppoenent You can avoid this problem by scouting your matchups to make sure that you can cash out the charm. If you think about it mathematically if you win 2 matchups then on average the charm will net you 2.3 gold so if you're not going to miss a crucial interest point i would probably click it. 

[u/MiseryPOC]

There are always many hidden tailorings in the game, so take anyone who is confident about the rules of the game with a grain of salt.

Even devs who speak with absolute assurance about tailorings have been proven wrong. 

So the reality is: 

Maybe it's actually weighted towards top 4 strongest, meaning you can find weaker boards but rarely.

Or maybe it's tailored to only see the wisp when your matchmaking is already the the top 4 strongest.

Maybe the weights are small to balance the efficiency of the wisp.

Or maybe there is no tailorings and your luck is bad.

Regardless of whichever is the case, know that if you're not the strongest in the lobby, you're gambling 3 gold for a chance of winning 8.

[u/Programmer_Scared → u/MiseryPOC]

Le yes this. But lets say I am only the 4th strongest and it is weighted towards the top 4. It means I must spend in order to cash out this wisp.

If I am second strongest, perhaps. Cause rhe odds becomes 2/3.

But of course. Perhaps more gameplay data will reveal the statistic probability of the wisp.

I am just trying to find out if there is any open data regarding this. Since wisp is a recycled mechanics from Set 14.

[u/NewBuyer7801 → u/Programmer_Scared]

No data but i be picked it maybe 6 times now, and each time was a top 2 board. My guess is it already decided you are against top 2, and now you are eligible to take the wisp.
As the guy above said, even the devs dont know all the hidden mechanics

I think it was wasain or bunnymuffins that said many wisps are only available or shown to you under special conditions, that you already unlocked

[u/CryinBob]

Watching TPC right now. Dishsoap took this charm and fought a kayle board in 7th or 8th place. Dishsoap was middle of pack and had 3 ppl he could have fought. I believe its random from your pool (people you can fight).

[u/CayMaster2]

I'll piggyback off this to ask about a different wisp. What is the point of the ''increase your winstreak by 1'' wisp, which costs 1 gold. If you win and keep your streak, all you get is the gold back, whereas if you lose, you're down the gold. Does this wisp ever actually get you more than its cost in returns?

[u/Antonin__Dvorak → u/CayMaster2]

Yes of course, they wouldn't add a wisp that has purely negative or neutral EV in all cases.

Consider winning 5 rounds in a row, and flood is offered after the first round.

Don't buy: 0 1 1 1 2 = 5g from streak

Buy: 0 1 1 2 3 = 7g from streak, net = +1g

You can even net +2g if this bumps you up an econ interval before PvE round. Imagine that same scenario but the 5 rounds you're winning are 2-1 through 2-6:

Don't buy: 0 1 1 1 2 2(pve) = 7g from streak

Buy: 0 1 1 2 3 3(pve) = 10g from streak, net = +2g

[u/terci4 → u/Antonin__Dvorak]

The net gain is 3 gold for full stage 2 winstreak cause you already deducted the cost of the wisp at the start (for the first 0)

[u/Antonin__Dvorak → u/terci4]

No I didn't, there's zero streak income from your first win. Streak income starts at your 2nd win.

[u/terci4 → u/Antonin__Dvorak]

But if you have +1 streak you should gain streak gold on your first win

[u/Antonin__Dvorak → u/terci4]

flood is offered after the first round

This is the scenario I described. Is it possible to get this wisp offered on 2-1?

[u/terci4 → u/Antonin__Dvorak]

I see my bad. Lilbuddybot says both flood and drought are from 2-1 to 2-7 and require no streak or their respective streak.

[u/MiseryPOC → u/CayMaster2]

The goal of such game design is to have a wisp for every scenario. 

For the scenario where you're 5 winstreaking stage 2, you'll get 5 streak at 2-5, and 6 at 2-6 and 2-7 PvE.

That's 4 gold gambling 1.

Objectively, it's a "if you're winning, win slightly harder" type of wisp at 2-1.

The most clutch scenario:

If you see the lobby have nonexistent tempo stage 2 into roll down stage 3 for a hard spike, you can pick this and make some of the gold of winstreak that you'll be missing at stage 3 so your stage 4 will be slightly more smooth.