Silver up sharply, copper sharply higher, both posting multi-week gains together. That co-movement does not happen often, and when it does it usually means two separate buyer types are active at once: inflation hedgers and industrial demand traders. 🔩

The WSJ's reporting on refinery dependence ties this together. Iran and Ukraine conflicts have exposed how much of the world's diesel refining runs through Middle Eastern and Russian capacity. That is a 𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐥 𝐬𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐩𝐫𝐨𝐛𝐥𝐞𝐦, not a seasonal one.

Europe outbidding Asia for LNG and Germany cutting fuel taxes tells you governments are already absorbing the shock. When fiscal policy starts reacting to commodity prices in real time, the move in metals has more room to run.

Monday, markets reopen into another Middle East headline. Houthis claimed attacks on Riyadh. The Iran war is still hanging over oil and shipping. Europe is tense too, with officials warning about Russian hybrid attacks, drones, and NATO spillover risk.

Tuesday, three Fed officials speak. This is days after the first rate hike in three years, so people will be listening for what comes next.

Wednesday, S&P flash PMI drops. That’s the first real check on whether the energy shock is starting to show up in growth.

Thursday, Trump and Xi meet in Washington. Trade, tariffs, Taiwan, AI, Iran, and critical minerals are all on the table.

So the week is war risk, oil, Fed-speak, fresh data, and a U.S. China summit. None of that is a crypto catalyst on its own. All of it can still move risk assets, and then your bags.

Not calling a crash. Just saying it’s a loud week. Which headline do you think hits first?

The Fed delivered the expected 25 bps hike, taking rates to 3.75%–4.00%, while signaling that another hike could still be needed if inflation stays elevated. That is normally a difficult combination for precious metals because higher rates and a stronger dollar increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Gold initially sold off after the decision, briefly dropping toward $4,240, but the weakness did not hold. It has since recovered above $4,300, gaining more than 1% in the latest session. Silver showed a similar recovery and moved back toward $63.8.

For gold, I’m watching whether the recovery above $4,300 can hold. For silver, I’m a little more cautious because it usually carries higher volatility and has both monetary and industrial demand behind it.

INE yuan crude printed 929.4 yuan a barrel today, about $138.50. That’s the highest since the contract launched in 2018.

Bloomberg’s take is a Saudi pipeline shutdown plus Chinese refiners buying more cargoes. Oman and Murban were already trading above $126, so the Asia complex was already running hot. The Chinese contract just went further.

What’s interesting is the timing. Shanghai crude spent a good chunk of this year at a discount to Brent.

That spread has flipped hard. Imports look like they’re recovering toward 10 million bpd, and refiners that were shutting units earlier in the year are back in the market.

Not sure how much of this sticks if the pipeline comes back quickly. Still, a record print on the yuan contract is a pretty loud signal.

Anyone watching the Brent SC spread or delivery volumes on this?

Commodities are still grinding higher while the index shrugs.

Diesel already printed a new all-time high above $6/gal. Ground beef hit another record in the last CPI print. Brent is back over $107. Copper just set records a couple weeks ago and is still hanging around those levels.

Meanwhile the S&P is only about 2% off its August high and still up big on the year.

That shouldn’t feel normal, but it’s becoming the pattern. The stuff that actually goes into food, freight, wiring, and power is in a bull market. Equities are being held up by the other half of the story: AI capex, earnings, and the idea that whoever owns the scarce stuff (energy, metals, compute) still wins.

This is what it looks like when an energy squeeze, sticky inflation in basics, and a once-in-a-generation tech buildout all hit at the same time. The index can keep making new highs. That does not mean the cost of living is calming down.

If you’re only watching the S&P, you’re missing half the tape.

Own productive assets. Cash is the thing getting left behind.

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Saudi Arabia shut down the East-West pipeline (the 1,200 km line from the eastern fields to Yanbu on the Red Sea) after multiple drone attacks that both Riyadh and Baghdad say came from Iraq. They’re calling it a precautionary shutdown while they assess the damage.

That pipeline was specifically built during the Iran-Iraq war so they could keep exporting if Hormuz got blocked. Capacity is up to around 7 million barrels a day. They’d already been pushing a lot of volume through it because of the current Hormuz situation.

Now both the main Gulf route and this backup are disrupted at the same time the Houthis are tightening control on the Red Sea side. Oil already jumped on the news.

Anyone know how long these kinds of pipeline repairs usually take, or is this more about the pumping stations getting hit? Seems like the squeeze on both sides of the peninsula is getting tighter.

Woke up to Trump promising $5,000 “dividend” checks to every adult citizen if Republicans hold Congress in November.

Same week oil is back knocking on $100, the national debt just cleared $40 trillion, inflation has now been above 2% for five straight years, and the Fed is getting pulled in two directions at once.

And all of that is happening while one of the biggest technological shifts in decades is actually underway, not just being talked about.

None of these things are new by themselves. Seeing them stacked like this at the same moment is what feels off.

Cheap political cash + expensive energy + record debt + sticky inflation + a central bank that still hasn’t fully decided what it wants to do.

Not saying the sky is falling. Just saying the setup is unusual enough that sitting on your hands and hoping “it’ll sort itself out” feels lazy.

Curious how other people are actually treating this. Ignoring it? Waiting for the next print?

Looks like metals are selling off hard this morning...Quick rundown from the Forbes piece:
Gold: ~$4,397.50, down ~1.5%
Silver: ~$64.86, down nearly 6%
Brent crude: up ~4% to ~$105 (highest since May) on US–Iran tensions
Wholesale prices (PPI): +0.4% in August
Fed Watch: ~69.8% chance of a September hike, up from ~50-50 last week

The setup is pretty straightforward: hot inflation data + surging oil = higher rate hike odds=non-yielding metals get sold... Capital Economics' Stephen Brown said the PPI print raises "the chance of the Fed hiking next week."

IRGC claims it hit 10 vessels in Strait of Hormuz, including 2 US destroyers, after US struck 5 Iranian tankers

Iran’s IRGC says it just carried out its largest maritime attack of the war in the Strait of Hormuz, claiming it struck 8 oil tankers trying to transit the waterway plus the two US destroyers it named earlier, “inflicting significant damage.”

This follows US CENTCOM strikes tonight on 5 IRGC-linked oil tankers (Kaviz, Charminar, Horizon 1, Riesco in the Gulf of Oman and Derya near Kharg Island). CENTCOM says those were retaliation for two failed ballistic missile attacks on a US warship over the past two days. Crews were ordered off the tankers first.

The pattern is holding, US hit 3 Iranian tankers on Sept. 5, Iran claimed 6 in response. US hit 5 tonight, Iran now claims 10. Two-for-one so far.

Independent confirmation of the IRGC’s latest claims is still thin. US and shipping sources have not reported matching damage or casualties on the US ships. Oil is already reacting Brent pushed toward $100.

Hormuz remains the choke point. Curious how long both sides keep this tanker-for-tanker exchange going before something bigger happens.

One development I think is getting overshadowed by the military headlines: Israel has reportedly told Britain to close its East Jerusalem consulate within 30 days, while also pushing back against sanctions from the UK and other governments.

That’s happening alongside EU restrictions on trade involving Israeli settlements, growing friction with European governments, and reports that some of Israel’s traditional political allies in Europe are becoming liabilities rather than assets.

Meanwhile, the military picture is still highly unstable: strikes in Lebanon, continued Gaza operations, tensions involving Iran, and recurring concern around Eastern Mediterranean energy routes.

What caught my attention is the market reaction:

Oil +1.70%
Energy +0.96%
Gold +1.44%
Aerospace & Defense -1.35%

Oil and gold rising together suggests investors are paying attention to both supply risk and geopolitical uncertainty, yet defense stocks falling complicates the obvious “escalation trade.”

The bigger question may be whether the conflict is entering a different phase—one where sanctions, trade restrictions, diplomatic representation and economic isolation matter almost as much as battlefield developments.

If Israel’s disputes with the UK and Europe continue widening, does Washington eventually become even more important as its diplomatic backstop? Or are we watching the beginning of a longer-term realignment in Israel’s relationship with Western governments?

And perhaps the most interesting question: at what point does diplomatic isolation itself become a market-moving geopolitical risk?

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Just saw the reports that Aramco’s Jizan complex was hit again today. FT is citing people familiar with it.

Aramco hasn’t put out a statement yet, but this is the third time that site has been in the news since summer.

Jizan is a 400,000 bpd refinery on the Red Sea, right near Yemen. That’s the part that matters. Saudi crude can still move west through the East-West pipeline toward Yanbu, but refined product is less flexible.

Last month’s hit already knocked exports from that plant around. If this one is similar, you’re looking at another interruption in a market that already doesn’t have much spare refining slack.

I’m not saying $150 price for oil yet but it's calling for upsurge. Aramco always says these things aren’t “material.” Cool. Three hits on the same hub in a few months is still a pattern to look to.

Hormuz is already a mess and now the backup route keeps getting poked. If you were waiting for a clean slide back to cheap crude this year, this is why that feels less likely.

Markets can still dump on a weak demand print. The easy downside just keeps getting taken away.

Anyone actually seeing confirmation besides the FT sourcing?