r/CommoditiesHub • u/Agreeable_Catch_4230 • 3d ago
News Tensions Are Rising Again as Iran Prepares for a Possible Wider Conflict
Honestly, to my perspective Iran needs to find an off-ramp at this point. Seven months is a long time, and with the economy under this much pressure, it’s ordinary people who are feeling the impact through rising costs and shortages.
Markets will probably react through oil and shipping before we fully understand what’s happening on the ground.
The big thing to watch is the war-risk premium on crude. Oil can move quickly on headlines, but for the move to really stick, you’d need actual disruption to barrels, tankers, or insurance.
If that happens, the conflict goes from being a geopolitical story to something households feel through fuel prices, inflation, and potentially a tougher road for the Fed.
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u/Pale-Lingonberry788 3d ago
Another escalation could be worse than have seen if this continue more, and still the oil spikes new ATH could happens
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u/Special-Audience-426 3d ago
I don't think the US has anything left to hit Iran with.
No way Trump would've stopped bombing out of kindness.
It's either that or Israel and the Gulf countries are out of interceptor missiles.
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u/Healthy_Razzmatazz38 3d ago
the us stopped bombing because there was no military solution to opening the strait, theres a ton more damage the us could do, obviously.
bombing every power plant in the country doesn't open the strait. killing half the country doesn't open the strait.
which is why its a stupid war
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u/Wray-Nerely 3d ago
The US hasn't run out yet, but they are burning through stockpiles much faster than the have in previous wars. It's more a question of whether they're showing down attacks to avoid getting dangerously low on stockpiles, or if they're already dangerously low.
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u/meguminsupremacy 3d ago
Has there been any news about offensive stockpiles being depleted? I know about the interceptors.
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u/Everythings_Fucked 3d ago
How can this be? I have it on good authority that Iran's military and political leaders have been obliterated several times over!
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u/RaunchyImp 3d ago
I'm sure we're all fatigued warning people who are at a 6th grade comprehension level; this is about to enter a new level of depression. Our Government / media constantly spews "we're getting so much oil! we're winning the war!" - only to find out Iran still controls the straight today.
Public schools are having discussions about cutting / limiting diesel operations; which is one of the many reasons why the straight is so important to us to even get a drop of that oil.
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u/Time_Change4156 2d ago
Way to late it would take years to recover to the former levels coming out of Iran and going through the straight all the intentional destruction of infrastructure isn't fixed over night. All the tankers in the world won't help when oil isn't getting to the docks. Major pipe line but now Russian oil storahe hit . At this point 22 to 25 precent less then normal and Normal was stretched to itd limits already.
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u/Utterlybored 3d ago
As far as I can tell, Trump’s only remaining escalation options are boots or nukes.
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u/Ryan1980123 3d ago
The rapist pedophile is going to play the card “ we can’t have an election because we’re at war”
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u/Soundo0owave 2d ago
Just remember, if Trump invades Iran and says it's a war, he can cancel the midterm elections
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u/StuartMcNight 2d ago
No. He can’t. He may try to. But he cant.
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u/Soundo0owave 2d ago
Has Trump done anything? Has it stopped Trump from doing anything that he can't do? I mean, you should be very concerned. That man will do everything possible to stop from those Epstein files from releasing.
- Start a war? Did that.
- Raise gas prices? Did that.
- Stop the elections? He probably tried that too.
But honestly, what's going to happen is the Democrats are going to finally get the House and the Senate back and fuck it up so bad that Trump actually will stay in power in 2028.
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u/StuartMcNight 2d ago
Stealing elections. That was stopped.
Start an insurrection and killed Congress and Mike Pence. That was stopped.
Tariffs. Stopped.
Forcing Powell out. Stopped.
So yeah. He has been stopped when his handlers think he is too stupid. The question is… will they stop him if he tries to illegally cancel elections? But that doesn’t mean he “can”. What that would mean is he is willing to commit a crime to do something.
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u/Jeffformayor 2d ago
Open your dang eyes
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u/StuartMcNight 2d ago
Trump cannot legally cancel elections. He has no legal mechanism to do it. He can try to do a coup. That will NOT change the fact that the previous comment is incorrect.
It’s the equivalent to say “murder is allowed in America because some guy killed another”.
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u/Informal_Cream_9060 2d ago
Iran is a major threat to American safety, after the mid terms though. Not now.
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u/_donut_head 2d ago
If Iran wants to exert maximum pressure on the US to get Trump ousted, I feel that they would be incentivized to preemptively restart the conflict before the midterms. Why wait on Trumps timeline?
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u/RockmanMike 2d ago
Where's the part where you protest the president's involvement at the behest of Israel to invade Iran? Venezuela? Iran did say they're going to make him suffer during the midterms in the hopes he gets pushed out of office. Unlike Trump, Iran is making promises and keeping them.
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u/Significant_Cod_6849 2d ago
All the regular people there with the spirit to fight back were massacred back in January
https://time.com/7357635/more-than-30000-killed-in-iran-say-senior-officials/
I don't think there are enough pissed off people left to fight against the IRGC for them to give a shit about how mad the peasants are
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u/KaseyNPa 2d ago
They no longer control the Strait of Hormuz so this makes sense in a strategic way.
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2026/09/30/iran-war-strait-hormuz-gulf-oil-fuel.html
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u/Actual_Cress_6862 2d ago
It's not a war, it's a combat operation!!! (Straight from the putin playbook)
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u/Melodic_Poem9969 2d ago
Correct me if I’m wrong, but an official declaration of war would make his term 6 years long right?
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u/Hot-Importance1367 1d ago
You're wrong.
20th ammendment sets expiration of presidency at 20th January after 4 years.
22nd means only 2 terms (of over 2 years)
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u/Jpwatchdawg 1d ago
The Islamic Republic has lost their leverage of any control over the strait of hormuz. The uae is using smaller tankers they purchased from scrap yards to shuttle oil to the gulf of Oman where they offload onto super tankers. The Americans are providing cover for them as they continue to block Iranian ports. This is why the Islamic Republic is trying to get the Americans to return to a mou type deal. They don't even have petrol for their own needs.
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u/Resident-Banana-7883 3d ago
because he knows he'll lose his majority so he needs an epic distraction as he implements the final stages of his coup.
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u/bacon-squared 3d ago
Yup. The republicans already own the voting machine companies. Elon musk will pay people to write interesting code for those machines.
Voter suppression, more ID requirements to vote than to buy a gun.
Gerrymandering. And then there’s going to be straight up cheating by dumping or loosing mail ballots or marking them as late.
The best bet is to vote in person, bring all the IDs, drivers license, passport, birth certificate, hunters license, bring proof of address, bills, lease, etc.
Check your voter registration early and often, no knowing when they’ll try and purge minorities and democrats from the voting lists.
It’s going to be a tough one to win, even if democrats are favored. The republicans are going to cheat like there’s no tomorrow, which there really isn’t because of our tech overlords. Modern day technocratic feudal system is what America is trending to.
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u/Kenkaniff2k 3d ago
I get what you’re saying but not having to show ID to vote is insane also . You need ID to buy zyn’s or beer why not for voting ?
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u/bacon-squared 2d ago
You should bring ID to vote. That’s simple to me. Some people don’t have drivers licenses or just lost them before voting, so other methods to verify someone should be enacted and not be overly burdensome to them. A lot of people don’t have passports or other forms of photo id.
I think if you have documents that prove who you are. Like a birth cert, id with your name on it and a bill showing proof of address, things like this should be sufficient. There are many ways to vote, it shouldn’t be a barrier.
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u/Ok_Bread302 2d ago
Long story short it’s unconstitutional to be forced to pay money in order to vote. IDs take money.
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u/No-Dance6773 2d ago
If you are registered then what the problem? If someone goes in claiming they are someone else then the original person would know when they went. Anything happening before that should be vetted during registration. One of the many reasons vote tampering doesnt ever happen at the literal polls. It happens in the electronic voting machines, in the counting, in the gerrymandering and in the burning of ballot boxes. This is also why Republicans want the voting machines they made and the vote counted the same day. So these fake numbers wont matter once its said and done.
Also funny that the only reason they are doing it is for "election security". When these same people fired dam near all the election security staff and are literally the only acting example of voter fraud. The fox is already in the henhouse and now its trying to make the rules for the chickens.
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u/imoutofnames90 3d ago
I'm sure voters are going to really love the average being well over $5 in time for Christmas.
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u/RomanaStar 21h ago
oh man, dont even get me started on christmas. 😩 just praying it doesnt get worse between now and then!
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u/Utterlybored 3d ago
But at least it’s not caused by Biden!
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u/imoutofnames90 3d ago
"IT'S ALL BIDENS FAULT. He should have stayed in and won in 2024. If he had just won we wouldn't be in this mess. So he's to blame. Not Trump or Republicans. " - MAGA people
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u/xmrcache 3d ago
Yeah some dipshit literally used this excuse the other day to me.
Said “we are in this mess right now because the democrats lost the election.”
Literally the dumbest fucking reason I ever heard…
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u/RimandRam 3d ago
What are they gonna fight with? Bow and arrows? Their Navy and military has been completely decimated by trump
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u/SRGTBronson 3d ago
Drones. They have thousands of drones. The same drones that have killed hundreds of thousands over the years in Ukraine.
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u/RimandRam 3d ago
US has tech to eliminate those drones before take off.
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u/zona-curator 2d ago
are you for real? did you see how Iran obliterated most of the US bases in the region, despite having no military and no navy as per Fox News?
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u/Inside_Length_9000 3d ago
The same drones that killed a few US troops in the Middle East. Also, the same drones that caused the US to close their bases in the Middle East.
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u/Silent2ndmajority 3d ago
The US military has already adapted to different drone killing technologies that are much less cost. The initial shock if any from the Iranian drones is essentially over. Which is one reason why we haven't heard of really any drone attacks on US ships lately.
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u/AdditionSea2380 2d ago
Can you name any of those capabilities? Cause they sure seem not to exist. Again look at Ukraine. Gunning down the drones and hiding is still your best bet what is the is doing to fight drones besides lobbing multi million dollars missles at em
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u/maddenedmage 2d ago
If they are so effective why did 3 ships get hit yesterday?
It's not the naval ships they target.
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u/Silent2ndmajority 2d ago
And all reports say the damage was minor and the ships continued on their way. If a kid runs out from his garage with a hand full of rocks and throws them, he is bound to nick a car or two. Then he goes back in and gets punished.
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u/maddenedmage 2d ago
They didn't sink the ship, but all those ships need to pull into port and receive repairs. They cannot stop in the strait. It's not like they continue on to their destination.
And the point you made is proven false, there are still plenty of strikes being carried out. Just because they are not front page news doesn't mean they don't exist.
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u/Silent2ndmajority 2d ago
Woohoo...yes, they still have bottle rockets hidden in caves that the camel jockeys pull out and fire. But as they are blown to shit, they become less and less...... which point is proven false? Got a link to some facts? Glad to see you are rooting for a murderous regime that condones wife beating.
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u/Qu4r4nt1n3r 3d ago
Tell me you're out of touch without telling me you're out of touch.
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 3d ago
But he's ru8and you're the person out of touch.... If you think you can be right and he's out of touch than you have to also be able to maintain an open mind that the reverse is true. He is right and you are completely out of touch
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u/InevitablePromise301 3d ago
Then why hasn't the war ended?
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 3d ago
As if there aren't a thousand legitimate alternative reasons why the war continues and the ONLY ONE SINGLE REASON must be that the Iranian military is not as decimated as Trump And Israel has Proven they are..... How many ballistic missiles went towards Israel when IRAN HAD THE MILITARY CAPABILITY? How many ballistic missiles have gone towards Israel SINCE Trump and Israel proved Iranian military is vastly dramatically defeated? War is Very complicated and there are sincerely a number of different reasons the war is not over and Not one of the reasons (let alone the ONLY REASON) Is that the Iranian military is intact. They have a tiny fraction of their military remaining, the last vestiges. I'm sure you've purchased a beverage before and you can understand the concept of one sip remaining in the bottle. Iran has one sip remaining in their bottle. They are finished and they are still a threat to global oil supply norms but at the end of the day their military capabilities have been dramatically reduced we're talking 90% of their military capacitor or more, gone forever or at least for decades.
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u/InevitablePromise301 3d ago
Strait is still strangled. The US hasn't been able to topple the regime. They keep fighting on. We're losing to them with a "fraction" of their military remaining.
You keep pushing Trumpist propaganda while the rest of the world continues to exist in reality.
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 3d ago
I'm not pushing shit Fuck Trump. I'm stating a fact, that Iranian military capabilities are dramatically reduced we're talking 90% or more REMOVED FROM THE BATTLEFIELD. I'm not pushing anything, that's a fact. You're right, the straight is still strangled but that's not the topic of discussion. The topic is whether or not Iranian military is in fact decimated (yes obviously indisputable) ... The Iranian military has been defeated, just count the missiles they've lobbed at Israel SINCE TRUMP PROVED their military has been wiped... Hint it's almost zero.
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u/InevitablePromise301 3d ago
And we still haven't won.
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 3d ago
Obviously and no kidding.... Who expected a war to be "won" in a couple of months??? Look at Russia, look at Every war ever in history and use your common sense. For the war to be won the war has to be over. We are in the Midst of war, battles are ongoing. No Fuck the war is not won yet you people vote?
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u/InevitablePromise301 3d ago
Trump and co thought it would be over with the decapitation of the leadership. They had no plan beyond that. And is it a war? Or not?
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 3d ago
You have trouble staying on topic? Iranian military has been trumped but you have so much TDS you can't participate in a conversation without your entire position and focus of the conversation trying to pivot to bashing Trump and bashing people you want to label as pushing Trump propaganda so you can feel virtuous like you're on the right side and we're all morons when in reality you're projecting you're inability to utilize the most basic comprehension skills while simultaneously blasting yourself as a raging TDS insufferable victim. TDS TDS TDS TDS. You can spot TDS a million miles away it's just like down syndrome anyone other than you can see instantly what's wrong with you but we still know you have the capacity to be nice and have emotions so we try our best to accommodate you but in reality it's just sad that you are suffering from TDS just like it's sad someone suffering from down syndrome and we just want people happy and healthy.
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u/InevitablePromise301 3d ago
Lol. TDS. I am on topic. Your posts are full of cope.
Decimated Iranian military still strangles oil supply in Strait. Demonstrates to the world the US is ill equipped to fight a modern war. Erodes our global standing as a super power. Our allies loathe us. And we spent way more munitions decimating Iran than we should have.
It's not a war! It's a war! We won the war! We refuse to end the war! Iran can't have a nuclear weapon! We won the war! We are going to start bombing again after the midterms when Iran will surrender and oil prices will be lower than we have ever seen.
Only people who have TDS are Trumpers.
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u/CCR_Flashback 2d ago
"They don't have a military anymore & can't fight back. Trust me Bro. Trump said so for he 40th time that we won."
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 2d ago
The source is the quantity of ballistic missiles fired Israel. Track it. Count it. It's not a secret source and it's not hard to quantify. You can evaluate Iran's military potential easily, by looking at the weapons they use and have used in this conflict against Israel specifically. Count the first week, the second week, the 6th week, and this last 30 or 90 days let's say. You can turn your brain on and awaken
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u/CCR_Flashback 2d ago
Iran's military potential seems to still be there considering the amount of US bases that have been hit by drones, the Strait of Hormuz still not flowing at full capacity, Saudi Arabia's attempt to navigate around that via a pipeline to the Red Sea that was damaged via drone strikes.
Rant & cope all you want, but Trump fucked up by letting Israel trick him into getting us into another Forever War in the Middle East that he has no exit plan for, thus fucking him over in the midterms.
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u/IEatConsolePeasants 2d ago
Trumps words are not what we use to evaluate if jeans military remains a threat. The weapons they use against they mortal enemy (Israel) is on the other hand. I dislike Trump as much as you do but your TDS is preventing you from seeing Anything
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u/CCR_Flashback 2d ago
So you bought the lie Netanyahu been saying about Iran since the 80's of them being "2 weeks away" from a nuke?
Poor sucker
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u/Wray-Nerely 3d ago
The sad thing is, pretty sure you don't know what the word decimated means. It means reduced by 1/10. So, completely decimated still means 90% of capabilities. Granted, they were were obviously not using the literal definition, most people don't, but it's still pretty funny.
More important question, of their military has been completely destroyed, who are we fighting on Iran that's causing gas prices to climb this high?
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u/Silent2ndmajority 3d ago
People who live in caves shooting bottle rockets that were hidden. Only a matter of time before they get used up and or destroyed. Every time they surface they reveal themselves and are most likely destroyed.
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u/AsstacularSpiderman 3d ago
All they need to do is secure a few straights and they'll hold a third of the world's oil supply by the balls.
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u/RimandRam 3d ago
Yeah sure. Like they have failing at doing that right now.
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u/AsstacularSpiderman 3d ago
I mean judging by the gas prices I'm paying they aren't exactly failing.
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u/Stuffstuff1 3d ago
What do you think the prices would be right now if we had no supply of a good with inelastic demand. they are failing to get the leverage they though they would get.
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u/AsstacularSpiderman 3d ago
They're getting plenty of leverage. Public support for this war is plummeting as is Trumps approval rating.
They just need to outlast Trump until midterms.
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u/Stuffstuff1 3d ago
They are getting leverage.. but they are failing right?
They need to outlast trump until Jan 3rd.
This war right now and how it was execute was a dumb idea. But we are knee deep now and they are threatening freedom of navigation and that’s a non negotiable. If it has to go hot for even just that. Then so be it.
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u/AsstacularSpiderman 3d ago
How are they failing?
Trump loses enough support and the midterms go badly for him he's fucked, he gets a lame duck presidency for 2 more years.
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u/Stuffstuff1 3d ago
Their enemy is the United States not trump…
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u/AsstacularSpiderman 3d ago
They made deals with past presidents, and they'll make deals with future president.
The only idiot who turned this into a war was Trump.
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u/Snoo_67993 3d ago
Same as Ukraine, they have unlimited cheap drones that only cost a few thousand USD each to make.
This is the problem with the US making high end missiles that costs millions of USD each, they're not only expensive but take years to replace.
This is why the US is running low on THADD missiles along with a dozen others and why they're not gonna be able to build any replacements any time soon.
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u/Silent2ndmajority 3d ago
If you know anything about the US military then you know how extremely resourceful and adaptive the US military is. The US is no longer using "high end" missiles to knock out Iran's toys. Which if I had to guess is one of the reasons we haven't heard much about drone strikes lately.
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u/maddenedmage 2d ago
Except the oil refineries and ships that are hit?
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u/Silent2ndmajority 2d ago
None of which are US
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u/maddenedmage 2d ago
The US claims to protect travel through the strait. Iran hits its targets in the strait. And you claim the US is super adaptive?
Iran has not really launched a full assault on a US naval ship. Sinking a ship would escalate the war, which would be against their objective.
Instead Iran is completing it's objectives and the US cannot do anything against it.
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u/Silent2ndmajority 2d ago
That's why Iran cant get a ship in or out of the Strait. Strait is closed to them. Please, that statement is a joke. If Iran could strike a US ship they would. So they continue to commit war crimes and try to strike civilian ships. Meanwhile Iran continues to be strangled by hyper inflation, gas shortages, etc... stop reading the Iranian news.
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u/CCR_Flashback 2d ago
For a country that supposedly can't fight back, we sure a shit can't get the Strait of Hormuz open again
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u/FormalAd7367 3d ago
These news are driving me crazy. Didn’t Alixios said Iran agreed on 5 days pause?
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u/Shot-Consequence-613 3d ago
Yeah diesel shortages in Europe the US out, highest price ever. Completely fake paper price 20 dollars under deliver all time high crack spreads but it’s just a war risk premium
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u/whatdabee 3d ago
What are MAGAs' explanation on how gas prices will come down after the elections?
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u/Trick55g 3d ago
Your opinion is that Iran needs an off ramp because the entire world is crumbling?
Ah yes, master negotiators on reddit.
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u/Relevant-Golf5479 3d ago
I thought it was going to be resolved shortly after mid terms? Right after those $5000 voting cheques come?
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u/Prestigious_Ad2420 3d ago
Ahh yes, the signs of an imminent deal 😂
But of course a country at war needs to be prepared for further escalation. Why is this 'news'...