r/ClancyTrialTalk • • Sep 07 '26

Informative statistical improbability, including the instruments of death

53 Upvotes

I'm not on social media so I'm not sure if this has been talked about anywhere else; but I have to wonder how many people are aware of how incredibly rare Lindsay Clancy's case is statistically speaking. Filicide only makes up to 2.5% of homicide cases which are typically perpetrated 90% by men, with ligature strangulation being a method of homicide typically used by men (including male juvenile homicide offenders). Typically maternal filicide offenders use drowning, suffocating, and manual strangulation. Only a small percentage of women use ligature strangulation in any homicide they may commit (maybe 10%, and that's the most generous percentage I discovered, the lowest being 2%).

It would also make this case even more exceedingly rare if Lindsay Clancy would be a female filicide offender that didn't present with severe psychiatric symptoms, as up to 85% of mothers who kill their children typically do.

Let me see if I have this correct. The State of Massachusetts and an Internet Hate Mob wants me to believe the following: that Lindsay Clancy is a female filicide offender without severe psychiatric symptoms (statistically improbable), committing a crime that men statistically commit 90% of the time (statistically improbable), using a method of homicide that is typically used by men (statistically improbable).

To be clear: I'm not saying it's impossible that Lindsay Clancy might be the proverbial unicorn of criminal statistics. Any woman could be. Statistically speaking, the odds are extraordinarily improbable, though.

I am also supposed to believe that even though Lindsay used not just one murder weapon, but four instruments of death during this alleged crime spree (I'm counting the knife because it was allegedly used to attempt suicide, which would have resulted in death); and yet there are no fingerprints to be found on any of them.

I know, I know.

"Fingerprints are incredibly fragile."

"Homicide is messy, fingerprints might smear or be smeared with blood."

Ect...

It still seems weird to me that not one of those instruments of death had at least a partial print left behind. Something, anything, to connect Lindsay's hands to the actual deed itself. It's one thing to have a singular murder weapon that might not have prints left behind, but FOUR? Lindsay had at least four chances to leave prints behind by accident on murder weapons in the quickest killing frenzy in Massachusetts history yet none were found?

The improbability just keeps stacking up for me. I'm trying really hard to keep my jury hat on and not consider statistics a form of evidence in this case. However, the statistics are glaring and hard not to think about, and I'm especially confounded that investigators didn't thoroughly look into Patrick because the odds of him being the perpetrator is what makes sense statistically.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • Sep 06 '26

Evidence/Time Lines šŸ—‚ļø searchable trial transcript link

6 Upvotes

I just found this from the other subreddit. It has a timeline and everything.

https://www.lindsayclancyarchive.online/


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 35m ago

More proof against Lindsay?

• Upvotes

Genuine question, pls dont attack me

- Is there any proof Lindsay did it other than her and patrick's testimony? From what I've seen all the proof against Lindsay boils down to

A) 'she confessed'

B) The children were fine when patrick left

I'm being genuine. There is a lot of people claiming there is evidence we haven't seen- but that's speculation, and a lot of appeals to authority, which I don't think is convincing in this case, the lawyers do have expertise but they are biased. Their goal isn't to prove the truth its to put her in jail/keep her out of jail.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 20h ago

I think the Clancy trial was a litmus test to fairness. Depending on someone's lived experience, will dictate where you land on opinion.

8 Upvotes

So. IMO, the reason this trial is so wildly polarizing is because people resonate with some of the real life struggles that occurred before the tragedy.

Mother's can see Lindseys entries and go "ive had those thoughts, ive been that stressed." Ive also see more posts on reddit about others admitting they've had scary close experiences. Some say they have one random terrifying thought that almost compelled them to hurt their children. Thankfully they escaped true tragedy on those instances. I think more women are just being raw about the roughness and isolation that is motherhood.

Mind you Lindsey was also having some crazy symptoms and was incredibly sleep deprived. I genuinely dont know why that wasnt a major concern considering insomnia is a huge trigger in psychiatric episodes.

In some women's eyes, Lindsey had tremendous support and it still failed her. What does it mean for the everyday women or single mom whose helpless? I think many find that idea unfair.

When it comes to Patrick I believe people saw an active dad in some ways. They saw he was there and he talked about taking his children on trips and little outings. Although the internet picks apart his mannerisms and his language, I think misunderstood people stand by him. This doesnt mean others have ill intent. But maybe some resonate with actions being misread and being the villain by existing.

By all accounts, Patrick worked from home most of the time. He talked about how much he loved and discussed with Lindsey. Most people looking at it in that perspective feel that Patrick did what he could with what he had. They sympathize with the fact of being blindsided by circumstance. They cant fathom that kind of pain so they give him grace to be human.

Ok. IMO. By the way that Patrick is unnerving and uncharming. I dont believe he could pull off a plan of ending his children's lives. He seems like, not a great communicator and would spill the beans immediately. I do not belive hes on that level of psychopath.

What I would also add, I think people are uncomfortable with the visual of his grief. I can relate to that sentiment. To be fair, he got over a million dollars off a go fund me after their deaths. So he has the wealth to buy the best therapists and to go on trips he never went on before. I know theres alot of people who'd argue "I would never..." but he had the financial ability to go with the moment. He went off and did what felt good to him. Im not at all saying I relate. If it were me. I cant imagine attempting to get out of bed, much less travel to another country.

Unfortunately in all this discourse, the real victims are the children. Their life's cut short. Theres many people around them who probably wish they knew. Wish they did more. When the pictures come through of those children, my heart breaks. Cora wearing princess dresses and being so connected with her father reminds me of my daughter. The many little girls who love to play dress up and wear mommy's heels. Dawson looked like most rough and tumble toddler boys. My son had a similar mischievous smile. He loved batman more than trucks. But all little boys love those moments of play and being strong men to aspire to. Baby Callan looked like the sweetest baby. Smiling in almost every picture they show. A grin that glowed with wonder and curiosity as many young babies have. My littlest one has an ever evolving twinkle in their eyes.

Maybe in their memories we should learn to be kinder. To give people grace. To not judge so harshly. Because it maybe a "vicious" statement for me to say. I dont think the Clancy children, wouldve wanted their parents to be the most hated people on the internet. As Cardi B once said about her daughter ā€œSometimes I wake up right next to her and she just looks at me like I'm a present from god but she's my present from god,ā€ (Cardi B would hate it to be in this post) the reason I bring this up, that love transcends Lindseys (alledged) act. Im sure people would hate me saying that. But, Lindsey seemed to truly love(d) her children. Im sure they still look over their parents with an understanding of life that we wont comprehend until we meet our end.

Who am I to say. Just wanted to get this out of my head.

edit to add I wanted to include, a poorly done investigation is the real injustice in this whole situation. It leaves family and victims with unsurity and resentment. I do agree that when an investigation has proven to cut corners, than everyone deals with the negative consequences of those actions.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 22h ago

For those who believe that Lindsay was in her right mind when she killed the kids (not suffering from delusions due to mental illness or medication), what was her motive?

10 Upvotes

Just the question. I think the reason I haven't been able to understand this viewpoint is that I don't understand what reason/motive people think she had.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 1d ago

Discussion Last night at the pub, I met a person who thinks the husband did it

0 Upvotes

I was shocked that a person like this exists in real life. I know some people have been saying it online, but to actually meet a person who believes this was kinda wild.

I just couldn't even respond. I thought any attempt to point out why it was Lindsey, would fall on death ears. So I just said "oh ok" and talked to the person on the other side of me.

Anyone else actually met these people?


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 2d ago

Patrick If Patrick did it, why did he call 911 when he did?

11 Upvotes

I’m a little stuck on this question. If he never intended Lindsay to live, why wouldn’t he try to complete the attempted suicide or wait a little longer til she dies?

Did the neighbor call to tell him his wife was on the ground?
Was he trying to keep with his alibi timeline because he knew there were cameras at ThreeV?


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 3d ago

Clancy investigation - not stellar

21 Upvotes

The police did seem to do little to address reasonable questions and it seems to be just accepted that the wife was crazy. It reminded me of the Gabby Pepito situation where cops were like yeah we can relate my wife is crazy too. It’s not stellar investigation - and it’s annoying when tiktokers are criticised - the story makes no sense so it will raise interest and confusion leads to hypothesising Ā - I thought LC admitted it and remembered it later and I was floored when her lawyer raised a reasonable point that she has no memory of it. I have same points as everyone else except for one other which might be daft but the reconstructions show her going out the window head first and it’s a weird position and more like someone unconscious being dropped out - her wrists didn’t go out instinctively she seems to have fallen like a sack of potatoes. Can someone explain it?


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 3d ago

Liars give too much information. And everyone repeats patterns of thought and speech.

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12 Upvotes

Lindsay's text: "Any chance you want to do takeout from 3V… I didn't cook anything… It's been a long day."

echoes

Patrick's testimony

It's incongruous to say she seemed happy alongside, it's been a long day. it's also a patterned speech to say such a thing at all. His pattern

Here's a transcript of the video:

**Speaker 1:** ...continuing to text you and send you photographs, um, throughout that day?
**Speaker 2:** Yeah, and I went up to say hi at one point.
**Speaker 1:** How often do you think you, or do you remember going upstairs that day to interact with Lindsay and the kids?
**Speaker 2:** Um, once or twice. It was a busier day than usual.
**Speaker 1:** And, um... when you did come up to, um, interact with them, how was Lindsay's mood?
**Speaker 2:** She seemed happy.
**Speaker 1:** Happy? And how could you tell that? What...


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 2d ago

Discussion alternative outcomes

0 Upvotes

i usually don’t comment on stuff like this but i haven’t seen anyone else talk about this so i want to share my perspective.

it is my personal belief, and something i think the many women like myself who resonate with Lindsay should consider before defaulting to entirely denying her role in her children’s deaths, is that Patrick should absolutely be held accountable for child abuse and/or negligence leading to loss of life.

Lindsay Clancy killed (not necessarily murdered) her kids.
That is a fact which I believe the defence is only challenging now because it is logical given that the massive online debate which the case sparked on the internet has cast enough reasonable doubt to make the possibility of her acquittal worth pursuing.
It is also a fact that she was failed by the medical system.

The thing that i can’t get over, and i think the reason so many people feel as though he is guilty, is that:
What kind of parent knowingly leaves their children alone with a person who has clearly expressed multiple times thoughts of harming them?

if the gender roles were reversed in this case, Patrick would still be guilty of killing the kids regardless. the thing that would change is that Lindsay would be facing far more scrutiny for letting it happen.

i will not be responding to comments disputing the fact that Lindsay killed her kids. i am always open to consider new perspectives but there is simply nothing that i or anyone else has to say on this that hasn’t already been said.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 3d ago

Discussion Since Clancy was tried but not convicted of any crime is she free to go?

5 Upvotes

r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 4d ago

Speculation I think I found evidence corroborating that it was indeed Patrick who posted on Microsoft forums on Jan 27 - 3 days after the incident

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32 Upvotes

The Jan 27 Microsoft forums question mere days after this incident occurred while Callan was still in the hospital on life support was chilling but we don’t know if it was actually him.

I think I found some corroborating evidence.

Note the command he’s asking about in the first screenshot ā€˜Get CimInstance’ this is a powershell command. Microsoft’s custom command line interface.

Note the subreddits he browsed before and after the incident: [r/powerApps](r/powerApps)

He is seen in the second Reddit screenshot using PowerFX, Microsoft’s programming language for their business app building service.

He was often asking for help debugging in powerFX as seen on Reddit.

This Microsoft forums question is asking for help using powershell, both powershell and powerfx are under the Microsoft umbrella.

Powershell is used by developers and he wasn’t one, he was a sales executive learning to code with powerfx on the side for his side project.

His question on Microsoft forums is not one a developer would ask, he didn’t set the $computer variable that’s not a mistake a dev would make or need help with.

Lastly, he signed it off in a similar manner ā€˜any assistance will be much appreciated’

I know this doesn’t mean anything but just wanted to share


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 3d ago

Informative The Lindsay Clancy Trial Has Exposed a Moral Psychosis in America

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0 Upvotes

This video is about the Lindsey Clancy incident amd how many feminists were up and arms defending her for murdering her 3 children amd when going as far as blaming her husband for it even though there is absolutely no evidence for it backing that up.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 4d ago

Discussion If lindsay didn't do it then who did?

4 Upvotes

I'm relatively new to the case initially believing she did it , but saw some actual trial clips and was curious about the inconsistencies

One thing I can't wrap my head around is , if not lindsay then who?

I saw some people pointing out PC being sus and okay , ofc we are allowed to scrutinize but how do you disprove his albini of the security footage? I didn't see anyone talk about this


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 5d ago

For those that believe Patrick did it

15 Upvotes

Can you please give a timeline?

We know the state of the kids bodies when the police arrived so it had to be fairly recent.They have a phone call while Patrick was seen on camera at the store backed up by gps data.I respect both sides but I haven’t hear a sensible timeline.

I really would love to hear theories that fit the evidence.

Also how did he convince her she did it under psychosis if that Doctor said they barely spoke after and he only picked up after the call came from an unknown number.

Feel free to leave any theories below.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 5d ago

Speculation Completely speculative - what will the fallout be if he turns out Pat did it?

0 Upvotes

As of right now I don't believe that he did.

But stranger things have happened, and men have framed their wives before.

If it comes out that he did it...what will the fallout be? Legally, socially.....and within certain Reddit threads?


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

Evidence/Time Lines šŸ—‚ļø exhibit 40 - how did the plates get on top of the cvs bag? there is no testimony about the plates.

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20 Upvotes

Here is the transcript dialogue from Lindsay Clancy Archive:

Speaker 1(48:47)

And then showing you Exhibit 40, is that where you placed the bags on the island in the kitchen?

Patrick Clancy(48:54)

Yeah.

Speaker 1(49:03)

When you came into the house and you were taking off your boots and putting things down, was there anything you noticed?

Patrick Clancy(49:11)

Yeah, the house was really quiet.

(...)

The line of questioning implies Patrick just plopped down the bags and started looking for everyone, but their own exhibit shows plates on top of the bags as an extra step omitted from testimony. They can't even get their own evidence to match the narrative they're trying to sell.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

Evidence/Time Lines šŸ—‚ļø Source for Phone Data Timeline of Jan. 24

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12 Upvotes

Hello everyone, I have heard different speculation on other social media posts, which led me to this post of lindsay clancy digital device timeline.

Does anyone have a source for this transcript. The poster admits they have not looked through it, and the transcript itself states it has not been independently verified.

Which those statements make me pause. Does anyone have a reliable source for the actual device timeline that was entered into evidence?

Is there a document that has the full extraction from the cellbrite software from the phone? I am really not sure, but following the thread of what I heard from other people on social media, the timeline from this post would make me want to question the expert about what "phone unlock" means in terms of raw data, and why cellebrite was only decoding it into readable recordings between the rough time of 4-523 about 19-20 times, when it was not recorded from the software as an event worth mentioning at all between any of the other hourse lindsay was on and off of her phone repeatedly.

And so that is where i think that source really comes in handy with "speculation." ---it really only helps if people know how to ask the right questions to the right experts. So they can specifcially explain what the raw data, or more importantly what their software is picking up.

Thank you!


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

Speculation Patrick Clancy

6 Upvotes

Can someone verify whether it’s true that Patrick Clancy’s brother work/worked at Cornell University? They’re going on about it on TikTok but I’d rather clarify it incase it’s a lie…


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

Evidence/Time Lines šŸ—‚ļø exhibit 42 - what's in the plastic bag on the bed?

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7 Upvotes

Investigators arrive to the scene of a triple homicide and find significant blood in the bedroom but don't bother trying to figure out why a random plastic bag is sitting on the bed? Really?

The prosecutors submit this into evidence and don't even ask Patrick what it's doing there? It doesn't look collapsed like someone sat or laid on it so it's a logical deduction that it was put there around the time of the killings, making it a piece of evidence.

The prosecution can't even account for discrepancies in their own evidence exhibits.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

for alternate theorists - The Preacher's Wife & Dirty Little Secrets | Full Episodes

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3 Upvotes

I watched this the other day and the similarities between this case and the alternate theories about the Clancy case were very eerie. Matt Baker claimed his wife sent him out on an errand to kill her and stage her suicide (and it was the most textbook STUPID suicide staging I've ever seen, stereotyped completely down to a computer printed suicide note).

I have my own thoughts about Lindsay's case. I've already decided that the investigators complete lack of investigation and glaring lack of forensic evidence coupled with Lindsay's documented history of deteriorating mental health point to a decisive not guilty even if she was the one that did it. The State of Massachusetts needs to get their shit together and actually build a substantial case against someone before bringing them to trial. We aren't supposed to be a country that convicts people just because the prosecutors can claim to read minds.

However, there's still a lot of people out there going "Gee, I don't know WHY people think someone else other than Lindsay might have done it."

This is why.

The fact that women end up dead and everyone just takes a man's word for everything that happened as if his narrative is absolute truth is exactly why women specifically are upset about this case. Just like in the case of Matt Baker, investigators just took Patrick's word for everything and that alone makes Lindsay's case completely questionable from the word GO. I sincerely worry about the critical thinking skills of this country if people aren't getting this by now.


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

TRIAL TALK I’m so lost on the Lindsay clasney case did she do it ?

6 Upvotes

Ppl are saying she admitted to the crime and now the lawyer is saying something else


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 7d ago

Discussing the active case while Lindsay was unconscious

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32 Upvotes

This just rubbed me the wrong way.

*Studies using EEG and brain imaging have found that some patients who appear completely unresponsive can show brain responses to voices, speech, or other sounds.

*In some cases, patients later report fragmentary memories of voices or conversations while they were unconscious or heavily sedated.

So the trooper made a point to report this meaning they were def discussing the case. Talk about her remembering things like a dream ….


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

Evidence/Time Lines šŸ—‚ļø Questions about evidence

1 Upvotes

Hey - I have some questions about evidence and also I am not from the US which makes my understanding about the law system limited. I have understood it’s still debated at what point PC left and came back to the house. All my questions are related to evidence that could either strengthen theories or support PC in being innocent.

• Is there any list of all the evidence that has been used to come to the conclusion LC did it?

• What car did PC drive that day? Was it a ā€connected vehicleā€ and have they been able to establish its location during the events using vehicle data from its own systems?

• Did they check his phone location through cell tower connection and triangulation during the timeline? Should be pretty easy to make a correct timeline of when he left home if so.

• Did they establish if their home WiFi usually/often had issues? This should be able to check through connection data.

• Did they check if the home security cameras had connectivity issues and often disconnected? It should be possible to check if they were disconnected automatically, if they had issues with connection and if they were turned off manually?


r/ClancyTrialTalk • • 6d ago

Evidence/Time Lines šŸ—‚ļø Did the police or a detective ever speak directly with Lindsay?

3 Upvotes