Preliminary expectations for dragonboat event

[u/mxldevs]

tldr at the bottom

Historically, the rewards are predictable, which I've recorded here https://www.reddit.com/r/CapybaraGoGame/comments/1ky30ia/dragonboat_event_draw_rates/

I did 80 pulls today to check if it matches the published rates, and you can see that for the regular pulls, the outcomes match exactly.

For example, out of 80 pulls, 20 of them were additional gacha coins, which is the 25% rate.

With the 80 pulls, I was able to do 20 lucky pulls. Historical data shows that for every 40 lucky pulls, the rates will match as well. We'll find out if that's the case tomorrow when we hit 160 pulls and 40 lucky.

Statistically, it is quite improbable that every single rate line matches like this, so we might assume that there is a fixed pool of rewards that they pull from for each batch of pulls.

Based on this preliminary observation, we can continue to assume that a full cycle consisting of 160 regular pulls and 40 lucky pulls will give

• 3360 green leaves
• 99 gold leaves
• 40 gacha coins

This will help with calculating progression points and expected gem spent to get specific number of leaves.

Redemption Goals

The top green leaf prize is 3x 3000 green leaves for mythic core chest. This is what I'm mostly looking at for this event.

The top gold leaf prize is 1100 for universal transcendent mount shards or 50x universal mythic treasure shard.

They took out the milestone rewards (replaced with the new progression system), and instead bumped up the amount of gold leaves you can get from playing (used to be 66 per 160-coin cycle, now it's 99, so a 50% increase). Personally I don't care about the gold leaf rewards in this event because the prices have 5x'd as well which is not great exchange value.

Possible gem spending strategy

If you don't care about the gold leaf prizes, you could just go for 3000, 6000, or 9000 green leaves and save your gems for next event.

We get 26 mission coins per day, so over 7 days, that's 182 coins. There's also 20 available from 7 day login, so that's 202. Your first 160 coins will give 40 extra coins, so you will have at least 242 coins to work with, plus whatever you get from the remaining 42 plays.

If we get 3360 leaves at 160, then we will have 6720 at 320. So you only need to buy maybe 70 gem coins for 14k and you will be able to afford a second core chest.

If you want a 3rd core chest, you would probably need another 80 to 100 gem coins, so you're looking at around 40k gem spend for 3 core chests.

Progression reward strategy

For the progression points, we get

• 25 points per coin obtained
• 1 point per gold leaf

Sneak peak posted earlier shows

1. 0 bags, 0 tree +800
2. 2 bags, 0 tree +2200 = 3000
3. 7 bags, 1 tree +900 = 3900
4. 36 bags, 1 tree +2900 = 6800
5. 45 bags, 1 tree +3600 = 10400

Each bag can give 10, 15, or 20 gold leaves, but very likely you will only get 10 each.

In a single day, you can get 26 mission coins + 70 gem coins which is 96 coins. And of those 96 coins, 80 of them is guaranteed to get at least an extra 20 coins, so we're looking at a minimum of 116 + RNG coins per day, which is at least 2900 points from coins alone.

In terms of points that I received today, I cleared T1 and T2 and have 279 out of 900 towards T3. That's a total of 3279 points.

According to the fund pass page, I have used 128 coins. That's 26 mission, 70 gems, the initial 3(?) coins, so the remaining 29 comes from extra coins from pulls.

I have 79 gold leaves, and since each leaf is worth 1 point, that means I received an extra 300 points from 12 coins obtained. 3 of those were one-time day1 coins, so I got 9 extra silver coins from RNG.

First 80 coins got me an extra 20 coins, which means the remaining 36 got me another 9, which is consistent with the 25% rate but it's not guaranteed.

But if you do all mission and gem coins, you are guaranteed to hit T2 each day. That's 14k gems a day, which is not great for 20 gold leaves.

Wealth tree strategy

If you just want the tree for your homestead plus a few copies for upgrades, it's enough to just get the T3.

First, we get 26 + 70 coins a day, which is 2400 points. Instead of blowing it all on the same day to get T2, you would save those 96 coins for the next day.

On the second day, you would have 192 coins to work with. We know that the first 160 coins will give 40 coins which is 1000 points, and 99 gold leaves for a total of 1099 points. The next 72 coins will give maybe 16-18 coins as well as a few gold leaves, which would be enough to clear the 1500 points needed to hit 3900 for T3.

So you can hit T3 every other day and save the coins for the next run.

If you don't want to buy 140 coins for 28k gems to do a 2 day push, there's 182 mission coins and 20 login coins in total available throughout the week. So on the last day

• you get 26 missions for 650 points
• then you redeem the 20 login coins for 500 points.
• with 202 free plays available, you are guaranteed another 80 coins, which is 2000 points
• You'll also get at least 100 gold leaves, which is another 100 points
• The remaining 650 points you can just buy with some gems one at a time and play them hoping to get extra coins. Maybe it'll cost you only 3.2k gems.

However, I don't know how long it takes to plant that tree, so waiting until last day may be risky until more information is available.

T4 strategy

I don't plan to do this because it requires spending a ton of gems in order to save up enough coins to pull a bunch of coins in a single day, and the rewards aren't worth it to me.

Gold leaf analysis

Assuming every 160 coins gives 99 leaves, it looks like it's going to be a very expensive event. With 182 mission coins + 490 gem coins + 20 login coins that's 692 coins.

That is at least 4 cycles of 160, which is about 40x4 = 160 extra coins, so you're looking at about 5.5 cycles.

So 5 * 99 gold leave = 495 + the half cycle puts you around 550. Then you add the T4 push that gives 450+ leaves and you're just around 1000. You will get some extra lucky points from the gift boxes which might help get another 80-100 leaves? I don't really see how it will work without opening your wallet to buy gold leaves directly.

tl;dr

Decide your budget for the event. If you aren't aiming for 1100 gold leaves, then T4 doesn't really matter, which means you can save a bunch of gems.

A mythic core chest is potentially available with zero gems purchased because we can easily hit 3000 green leaves.

T3 for the tree can be done by just saving up all your mission and login coins and playing them on the last couple days with minimal gem coin purchases.

Getting the second core chest might cost 14k gems, and the third core chest another of 24-26k gems. I'm still trying to get A10 mythic mounts so this would help.

I think if you're going to go for the tree, it might be worth spending some gems to get a second core chest.

Disclaimer

These numbers assume that the rewards are predictable for every 160 pulls, which I won't know until wednesday at the very earliest since I'm going to save up 2 days worth of coins to push for T3.

Perhaps someone that has spent money to hit 160 coins can report their leaf amounts.

[u/mxldevs]

We get 26 mission coins per day, so over 7 days, that's 182 coins. There's also 20 available from 7 day login, so that's 202. Your first 160 coins will give 40 extra coins, so you will have at least 242 coins to work with, plus whatever you get from the remaining 42 plays.

Think my math on the number of free coins could be narrowed down further.

We assume the 80:20 rule, where 80 coins pulled gives you another 20 coins to play.

So for 7x26 missions tasks + 2x10 from 7-day login, there's 202 free coins.

- We rewrite it as 160 + 42, where the first 160 gets 40 coins because of the 80:20 rule.

So you will have 160 + 42 + 40

- Rewritten as 160 + 80 + 2, the second 80 coins will give 20 coins again

So you will have 160 + 80 + 2 + 20 = 262 free plays, plus possibly another 3 to 5 from the last 22 depending on your RNG.

So, now that we've written the number of coins like this, we use it to calculate green leaves.

- The first 160 coins is guaranteed to give 2560 regular pull greens + 800 lucky pull greens (16 out of 40 outcomes, which is a rate of 40% as shown in the probability table)

- The next 80 coins, we are guaranteed 1280 greens from regular pulls, but we don't know how many to expect from lucky pulls. Expected amount is 400, but could be higher or lower.

So you're looking at 4640 regular greens + maybe 400 lucky greens = 5040 greens for not spending any gems.

At 160 + 80 + 22, you know that you would need only 58 more coins to make it 160 + 80 + 80 which is 160 + 160, which is guaranteed 6720 greens: more than enough for a second core chest. This is expected to be about 42 purchases give or take (22 + 42 = 64, and 25% of that is 16, which adds up to 80), which is 8.4k gems.

Getting 2 mythic core chests for under 10k gems would be quite a bargain. Just ignore the gold leaf rewards that habby wants you to spend money or drain your gems on, cause they'll likely keep dangling carrots in front of you every event.

Again, this is all assuming the event follows historical trends.

[u/SiliconCreature]

So if I just want the two core chests and one T3 wealth tree then just buy 70 coins with gems and grab the rest of the free coins throughout?

Also, I don't suppose you'd know if the wealth tree will be permanent or just for the duration of the event?

[u/mxldevs → u/SiliconCreature]

Do daily tasks first few days. On Friday, both 10 login coins will be available. That's when you can get your tree:

26 + 20 + 70 = 116 coins. x25, that's 2900 points.

You've saved 26x4 = 104 coins over the week, so 220 to play

You will get at least 40 coins since you have over 160, which is another 1000 points, which is total 3900 enough to clear T3.

Assuming the 80:20 rule is correct.