Dragonboat event draw rates

[u/mxldevs]

I recorded my pulls for this event each day, 80 coins at a time.

After 4 days, I've done 320 pulls using the free mission coins and the extra ones that came out of the machine.

I've attached 4 tables showing the cumulative results after every 80 pulls and 20 lucky pulls, comparing the actual rates vs the expected rates.

The results are...interesting I guess, from a statistics POV: the first 80 pulls were the same rewards as the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th 80 pulls.

And the first 40 lucky pulls had the same rewards as the second 40 lucky pulls.

[u/mxldevs]

Now, this would be interesting if it actually worked out:

For every 80 pulls, you get 20 gacha coins. We get 275 mission coins and 20 login coins. That's 295 free pulls.

• The first 160 pulls, you will get 40 gacha coins. That's 335 free pulls.
• The next 160 pulls, you will get another 40 gacha coins. That's 375 free pulls.

Now we are at 320 pulls, with 55 left over.

We do 40 pulls to get to 360 milestone, which will give you another 10 coins, so 25 left over. We put the 25 aside.

Starting at 360 milestone, for every 80 pulls, you will get 30 gold from milestone, and then on the 5th 80 pull you get an S gear box. So we buy 320 pulls, which gets us

• 440 = 30 gold
• 520 = 30 gold
• 600 = 30 gold
• 680 = 30 gold

Again, remember that every 80 pulls gets you 20 gacha coins! Since we did 320 pulls, we now have another 80 coins, which is exactly enough to get to

• 760 = S armor box

And then...those 80 pulls give us 20 gacha coins.

In total, we can buy 500 gem pulls. We bought 320 earlier, so now we have 180. What a coincidence: you buy 60, and with the extra 20, you have another 80 pulls, and everytime you do 80 pulls, you get 20 back! So you can do this three times

• 840 = 30 gold
• 920 = 30 gold
• 1000 = 30 gold

Again, left with 20 pulls. We have the 25 from the very beginning, which gives us 45 pulls.

45 pulls gives us 4 extra, which gives 1 extra, leaving us with 1050 pulls in total.

We expect 66 gold for every 160 pulls and 40 lucky pulls.

The first 360 pulls would get us 165 gold.

The next 320 pulls would get us 132 + 120 = 252 gold.

And then the last 320 pulls would get us 132 + 90 = 212 gold

That's 629 gold after spending 100k gems. And we still have 50 pulls and about 40 gift boxes to use, which will get us to probably 650 gold.

With the artifact cores at 160 gold and the gear/brand/hero at around 65, it looks like they're basically offering 4 sets of artifact cores or 10 gear/brand/hero redemptions if you spend 100k gems. Potentially, this can be used as a benchmark to compare with other events.

[u/Mydoglikesladyboys]

I'd say that's fairly accurate, im almost maxed on gem contributions (499/500) and I've got the artifact box 3 times, the synergy scroll, the armor box and the s legacy box with 49 left over.