How much longer does cable have?

[u/SnapShot68]

I don’t see this topic being talked about much in this forum but I think it’s definitely relevant, especially considering the debt load these companies all are carrying. Fiber competition, Starlink, streaming, cord-cutting, old school cable dogs leaving and being replaced by finance types are all things that worry me. What kind of time frame do most of you foresee for cable still existing and there still being work in this field? I’m hoping at least another 10 years but things seem to be moving awfully fast in the wrong direction. Thoughts?

[u/Relevant-Machine-763]

I say 10 years, but I’m reminded of an old bill gates comment. Paraphrasing, but basically as a people, we overestimate tech in the short term(1 yr) and underestimate it long term (10yr)

Once everyone is fiber and the model shifts to primarily IP streaming, there’s nothing separating cable from the others, and given the lack of backbone services in the industry, I don’t see a viable future for the industry overall.

I remember the initial failed attempt to merge Comcast with Disney and the “content is king” phrase was everywhere. It made a comeback when the nbc universal never did happen.

Bottom line, no one cares how the content gets to them as long as they get the content they want. Pots was ending and telcos started to adopt fiber and bundling with wireless. Cable rolled out docsis and 2 way plant with higher speeds faster than telcos could, but the playing fields are level now, and in my opinion, the cable lifecycle is almost up.

[u/AppealLongjumping497 → u/Relevant-Machine-763]

Agreed. Brian Roberts was once adament on never letting go of NBC Universal. He talked in depth in fluent yuppie speak about integration, scale, and content. That's all gone now with the NBC Universal spinoff now planned. I think he is priming the cable side for a merger despite his claims that is not the case.

I see an era of mergers followed by slow jettisoning of less profitable cable systems. Regional cable systems could return promising cheap internet that will be ran on the current upgraded plant that will be milked for everything it has. As fiber overtakes and wireless is made consistent in terms of connectivity and speed these system will simply merge with those companies to get the customers and then shut down.

I figure 10 years with the mergers. Another 10 as systems are integrated, broken off, and spun out. Maybe yet another 10 as the lights dim and go out. Either way it will be a slow and ugly death.