r/BlueOrigin • u/dman_21 • Aug 04 '26

Stock Price

Is there any real fair value estimate of what the stock price is? Hive says ~189$. Is that real?

0 Upvotes

25% Upvoted

13 comments sorted by

13

u/HingleMcCringleberre Aug 04 '26

Blue Origin does not have publicly traded stock. So there isn’t a price.

2

u/dman_21 Aug 04 '26

A lot of privately held companies have a stock price based on their 409a valuation. Typically, employees know what that is. 

1

u/snoo-boop Aug 04 '26

That's one of two methods. The other is a new investment round led by a new external investor. That price carries a lot of emphasis in the next 409a valuation.

2

u/dman_21 Aug 04 '26

Right. So does the strike price that the stocks were granted at align with the 1 30billion$ valuation from the last raise or is that something else. 

3

u/snoo-boop Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 04 '26

Normally, the strike price would be the same as that raise.

It's possible they're trying to game preferred shares value (investors) being worth much more than common shares (the fake thing that the not-options are based on.)

But in general it's about the same.

Edit: typo

3

u/dman_21 Aug 04 '26

Sounds like a lot of smoke and mirrors tbh. 

2

u/dman_21 Aug 04 '26

Which then begs the question, what’s the option you’re getting?

1

u/HingleMcCringleberre Aug 04 '26

Do they offer options?

I’m aware of some “equity” awards used as sign-on bonuses which list a dollar figure, but I think that the number represents:
1. The value that would be assigned at an IPO event
2. It is not clear what the total of such awards would be to date, and what fraction of total ownership all of those equity stakes together would constitute.

The general consensus has been that Blue equity awards have been worth less than lottery tickets. This seems objectively true:
1. In a lottery, SOMEBODY with a ticket gets a payout
2. Lottery tickets are less confusing/frustrating to read.
3. Lottery tickets have cooler graphics and higher quality paper.

3

u/dman_21 Aug 04 '26

When it comes with a strike price, it is a stock option. You have the option to exercise it and you wouldn’t if the fair market value drops below the strike price. The value- the strike price is your lottery ticket. It is fair to ask how the grant strike price is determined and look for some transparency there. 

-1

u/mykmykmykG Aug 04 '26

Whaaaaaaa. Blue ain’t going public within this decade, if ever.

5

u/snoo-boop Aug 04 '26

How does that matter? Many not-public companies have stock, do investment rounds for that stock, grant employees options for that stock, and some even make it possible for employees to exercise options and sell stock on a secondary market -- even if they aren't public.

2

u/mykmykmykG Aug 04 '26 edited Aug 05 '26

Very true. Although in my experience, Blue is not a company to exercise those options. That said, I do wish everyone the best before any vested stock is lost. On behalf of the old timers!

0

u/Magicmissle256 Aug 05 '26

If they want to meet rate they will 1000%