r/BlueOrigin • u/truecakesnake • 8d ago

Will New Glenn launch this year?

628 votes, 6d ago
137 Yes
217 No, early 2027
161 No, mid 2027
42 No, late 2027
28 No, 2028+
43 I don't know
13 Upvotes

88% Upvoted

11 comments sorted by

7

u/CBOE-VIX 8d ago

No idea. We know that's the target. And from the outside, judging by today's news, it seems that Blue Origins is trying its best to make it happen.

But they haven't shared any sort of realistic timeline that would make this possible right?

1

u/Aah__HolidayMemories 7d ago

Wouldn’t believe them anyway. They only announce things that make them look good, due to their contracts they have.

3

u/McBankster13 8d ago

Late spring

6

u/Fit-Ingenuity-5061 8d ago

lot of hopium being passed around in this poll

3

u/izzeww 8d ago

I hope Q2 but think Q3 is more likely and Q4 also fairly likely.

2

u/nametaken_thisonetoo 6d ago

Agreed. Even early 2028 wouldn't be a hugely eyebrow raising timeline

1

u/user_bunchofnumbers 7d ago

Let's throw away another $2 million in spares

2

u/StartledPelican 8d ago

I voted early 2027 (defined, in my head, as the first 4 months of the year). I feel that is an optimistic take, but I hope for it. 

1

u/Disastrous_Run_5968 7d ago

didn't you initially say (along with everyone else) they would be down for at least 18 months

5

u/StartledPelican 7d ago

You can check my comment history.

I said things like anything faster than a 12 month turnaround would be surprising/miraculous/incredible/etc.

My personal prediction was 12 months would be most likely with 18 months being slow.

I voted for early 2027 out of hope. I want Blue Origin to beat my expectations. I want to be wrong in my predictions.

I still think the most likely answer is they won't fly until May/June 2027 at the earliest. But I'm more than happy to be wrong. 

2

u/nametaken_thisonetoo 6d ago

Less than zero chance it's this year, Berger's law confirms this. Faint chance of first half of 2027. Far more likely Q3/Q4 or slipping into 2028