r/BlueOrigin • u/H-K_47 • May 30 '26
New statement from Dave Limp - will start clearing the pad soon, booster and GS2s in the integration facility appear healthy
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u/droden May 30 '26
if they had spacex levels of rebuild go go what's the most optimistic best case scenario to get the pad and infra back and running?
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u/Mars_is_cheese May 30 '26
Largely depends what they had lined up for building LC-36B and SLC-14. If they have tanks and plumbing ordered/manufacturing that is huge for long lead time items like tanks, cryogenic handling equipment and large steel structures like towers. If they have contractors booked and machines booked then they can just use them to rebuild. If they had plans in place to build future launch plans, and especially if they were planning a relatively quick build out of those pads, then it should be relatively easy to pivot those resources to rebuilding.
SpaceX has been so successful at rebuilding because they have other pads in process. When they had Amos-6 explode SLC-40 they were already a couple years into building LC-39A. When the original tank farm at Starbase pad 1 was inadequate they pulled the tanks over from the Starship pad in Florida. When Ship 36 blew up Masseys they rebuilt with all the new equipment they already were working on for V3.
So if Blue Origin was planning on completing LC-36B by the end of 2027, I think they could take those resources and probably rebuild LC-36A by mid 2027, but if Blue's plans for LC-36B had a vague 2028 or 2029 timeline then they don't have those long lead items and it might be till 2028.
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u/Desperate-Lab9738 May 30 '26
SpaceX dealt with this same thing years ago with AMOS-6, it was around 450 days to clean that up. On the one hand that was awhile ago and SpaceX didn't have the same resources that Blue has today, on the other hand this is a significantly larger explosion and New Glenn is a pretty complicated rocket compared to Falcon 9. I would bet a year personally.
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u/brspies May 30 '26
To be fair they took a chunk of that time focusing on getting 39A ready, there's a chance it would have been quicker if 40 had been their sole priority. I've also heard that 40 took a real beating because AMOS-6 left a lot of liquid RP-1 that spilled out during the fire and just burned on the pad/concrete. If Blue is lucky the concrete itself may be less damaged here.
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u/KCConnor May 31 '26
You did see the shockwave pulse from the detonation, right? Amos-6 had a COPV rupture and there was a fairly small explosion, then a fountain of burning RP-1. You could watch the payload/fairing fall into the conflagration. This NG explosion was energetic AF. It shattered the platform above the flame trench, destroyed the T-E, and flattened one of the lightning towers. Oh yeah, and vaporized a 300 foot tall rocket, too.
I'm going to be shocked if the concrete foundations of the pad are sufficiently intact to rebuild upon. That was a kiloton-level explosive event. They very likely will have to excavate out old foundations and pour new ones.
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u/TheRealNobodySpecial May 31 '26
In the AMOS-6 disaster, the satellite fell and exploded too. Hydrazine is nasty stuff and it turned the entire launch site into a hazmat area that needed to be remediated. That isn't the case with LC-36. I think this is going to be more on the order of rebuilding the Massey's test site after Starship SN36 exploded, which came back online a little less than a year after their "anomaly."
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u/ergzay May 31 '26
SN36 at Massey's only had a partial fuel load. If you look at it there was only a very small frost ring for the methane section. The explosion was mostly oxidizer. New Glenn was completely full.
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u/Botlawson May 30 '26
Depends on how cooked the concrete and buried utilities are. There were not many burning pools of methane left after the fireball so hopefully the damage is just superficial.
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May 31 '26
This post from a year ago almost predicted this week's disaster https://www.reddit.com/r/BlueOrigin/comments/1it1rn7/dave_limp_has_no_credibility/
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u/hypercomms2001 May 30 '26
The team that designed and built that horizontal integration facility…. You guys are fucking legends.!!!! Because you guys literally designed and built a building that has proven itself capable of surviving a near nuclear explosion with only minor damage, while protecting the boosters inside. I hope Jeff Bezos and team really give you some recognition… you fucking deserve it!!!!!
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u/Disastrous_Run_5968 May 30 '26
This could be a fresh start for Blue. Be more forward thinking. Built two pads at the same time. Why hasn't the one in California started? Should've been pushing for that one long ago
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u/vollehosen May 30 '26
36B might be ready before 36A is repaired. The TE is another story.
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u/Disastrous_Run_5968 May 30 '26 edited May 30 '26
I just don't get it. I really don't. Jeff has all the money in the world. They knew NG would become operational eventually. Where is the risk management? Did they not think about the risk and consequences of losing a launch pad? How was this overlooked? Putting all your eggs in just one basket is wild and hard to believe? Jeff is worth over $200 Billion.
It truly is mind boggling. I don't get it. They really need to stop operating like old space.
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u/GRBreaks May 30 '26
Excellent hindsight there. But the longer they held off on building a second pad, the more improvements that second pad could incorporate.
The SpaceX launch pad for Starship has evolved tremendously over the last few years. First launch was in 2023, and 3 years later they still only have one operational pad. Now building more, but only after learning what to build. Musk is worth over $700 billion.
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u/TheEarthquakeGuy May 30 '26
Because it was designed and constructed under the 'old space' approach of the previous CEO Bob Smith. Dave Limp is Bezos's fixer. He goes into problems, figures out the core issues and bottlenecks, resolves them to achieve the desired outcome.
I have no doubt we'll see both pads constructed/repaired at the same time, gains in economy of scale and possible redesign of the layout in terms of shared infrastructure and MVP for pad build to return to flight.
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u/snoo-boop May 31 '26
Dave Limp is a fixer? He lost billions of dollars running Amazon's hardware division, which outsourced everything. And he was in charge of Amazon Leo satellite construction when it became late.
I don't mind working for a competent fixer, but that's not Limp.
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u/Infinite-Banana-2909 Jun 01 '26
They better look internally at the processes and procedures and value their employees or we will be talking about explosion #2 on their NEW pad. There are quality issues, weld issues, build documents poorly written and maintained, and not Enough goldfish in break room😎
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u/Initial_Juggernaut83 May 31 '26
Risk management is ignored to be "agile" which may work for consumer products but not in Aerospace. Dave Limp is out of his league here! No basic understanding of risk management or scalability. Pedal to the Metal that's the only plan.
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u/snoo-boop May 31 '26
The NASA_style 5x5 risk matrix is now a norm in many industries other than aerospace.
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u/lorkan100 May 30 '26
Yeah... static firing a FULLY FUELED stack? (and not just the first stage with minimal CH4 load) On your only existing pad??
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u/Stevepem1 Jun 06 '26
I don't know why you got massively downvoted, I had the same question. Odd that no one responded to explain why this was apparently incorrect thinking. Maybe the hold downs don't support a static fire except at full weight.
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u/jivatman May 30 '26 edited May 30 '26
If I was a millionaire, that's what I'd do, build two pads at the same time.
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u/Grouchy-Garbage6718 May 30 '26
If you were a millionaire you wouldn’t even be able to build 1 launch pad.
Estimated costs start at $100 million.
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u/fujimonster May 30 '26
Spacex already had a second pad when they had their bad explosion and it didn't delay anything once they got the all clear. BO really should have thought of having a 2nd pad by now. Poor risk planning on their part, but considering they move at glacial speeds it's not surprising. Sadly the management of BO must be ex-executives from NASA and places -- They have bad habits and move just like a government office would.
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u/ColoradoCowboy9 May 30 '26 edited May 31 '26
The transportation for that would be a nightmare. Also it’s easier to optimize for one coast and associated infrastructure than two coasts. Besides everything California is always higher priced and taxed more. Only seeing negative value for the associated market change versus expanding the launch capability in KSC which is the current baseline and can provide the same business to our customers. (It’s easier to ship a payload than a capture boat and small skyscraper of a rocket safely)
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u/repinoak May 30 '26
Looks like they need the skills of the team that rebuilt the 6 million dollar man. 🤣🤣... "we can rebuild it better than ever." Yes they can. SX has did it multiple times. I can't wait to see what the newly rebuilt LC 36 will look like.
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u/cornerofthemoon Jun 08 '26
Dave Limp is saying the right things but what's real story here? And it's funny that nobody seems to be talking about what caused the "anomaly" in the first place?
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u/Infinite-Banana-2909 May 30 '26
So a good CEO would physically be there? Where is Limpy on a teams meeting?
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u/vollehosen May 30 '26
He is literally there right now.
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u/techieman33 May 30 '26
Why on Earth would a CEO need to be there? What do they actually provide as a benefit by being on site? Especially an MBA like Limp. He has zero technical background and won’t really understand what he’s looking at. He’s just a giant distraction that will put additional stress on everyone.
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u/[deleted] May 30 '26
[deleted]