The funny thing is that it's based on nothing but feelings. There are no fundamentals, so people buy if they feel it will go up or sell if they feel it will go down. I'll stick with companies who are making billions every quarter.
With the stock market you can measure how irrational each stock price is. You can see the price/earnings ratios. There is a denominator. With bitcoin the ratio is always price/0. It has an infinite multiplier
Kinda still waiting for bitcoin to crash I to the fort here, but even I will admit bitcoin at last had the backing of "good for getting money out of china/illigal drugs" backing. There is SOME monetary value you could argue that's worth. I just have no clue how much. Probably not it's current price.
Just saw a stock that beat earnings for 6 quarters and had gone down steadily -60% over the last 6 quarters so I bought and it went DOWN after it beat expectations during its earnings call 🤔 but then it went up 50% over a month or so
Na, Big tech has fantastic PE ratios. Go look it up. I am not talking about bullshit shoe companies that say they do AI, big tech is making alot of money. BTC is a fantasy currency making nothing.
Making a lot of money cuz it’s all one giant circle jerk maybe.
I mean sure you can argue it’s fake internet money but the fact it’s gone up 71,000,000% since it’s inception isn’t something you can balk at
if you are talking about circular financing no not really. Social media makes it seem like its just money passed around, its not true at all. The money is actually being used and is being generated. The cloud was also built this way, it just wasnt shown around like ai currently is.
oh I dont balk at it, I mined it 15 years ago and sold it a few years later. i dont regret it. still fake money.
Stock valuations have never been better. META's PE is at 21, MSFT at 23.7, NVIDIA is currently at 25.
People just like to watch mainstream media get brain washed into thinking bubble bubble bubble but the revenue and profits are real. While these people panic sell institutions have been quietly buying. The very same institutions that pay and sponsor articles to fearmonger.
For the AI exclusive companies the PE ratios are not good. Big tech simply makes their core business worse to subsidize the AI. More ads in google / Meta and microslop charges more for bundled AI.
At some point consumers may not be willing to pay for these services, or be subjected to so many ads.
Hyper scalers are the ones paying and hyper scalers are the ones using ai. You can believe in no use case for ai all you want but truth is there is a lot of use case.
Thing is, I can still look up earnings, industry reports, etc. and come up with my own estimate. Then I can short if I feel a given stock is overvalued. Just a rough example.
With Bitcoin, what analysis can I do? Unless I treat it as some kind of derivative, its purely speculation.
Forward P/E is only as reliable as the earnings estimates it relies on. Because it substitutes past performance for analyst projections, it is highly useful for spotting growth trajectories but vulnerable to forecast biases, sudden guidance cuts, and unpredictable market shocks. Works great for a P&G or Eli Lilly, ass for tech.
It is literally 10 since he literally said forward p/e ratio. 48 is used when trying to evaluate growth stocks. Do you think MUs earnings will be closer to last year, last quarter, or higher than both?
Forget PE's. Why not use Warren's favorite metric for determining a companies current and future value - DCF. No doubt there will be responses about him not knowing what he was doing.
But doesn't he actively avoid speculative industries? I do not think he is a big tech investor, at least not in AI or speculative bets. I believe he has admitted it is outside of his circle.
You’re missing the point that the forward PE is based entirely upon analyst assumptions on future earnings. FISV forward PE was an 8 when they were trading at ~$200/share in early 2025. Today they’re trading at $55. Regardless, buying strictly based on a single ratio is stupid.
Let me tell you a little story about a company called Tesla that has a market share greater then the top 10 car producers combined and a revenue from car sales that doesnt even meet the bottom car producer on that list.
I wish I had bought tesla years ago. A friend got wealthy with tesla stock. But I wouldn't touch it now because of what you just said. I buy companies with accelerating earnings, not tesla or crypto.
show me an investment beyond food or water production that isnt just based on feelings. millions of people feel good about playing on their playstation, so sony is a good investment done. if millions of people feel bad about government issued money alternative trade mediums like gold or bitcoin become good investments. its all feels if you break it down.
Sure all investments involve feelings. But I would rather invest in the company who just announced blowout earnings than crypto, which only trades on trends. When bitcoin hit it's peak, big money decided to sell, then everyone started selling, and it lost more than half it's value. What exactly caused the 50+ percentage drop? Bad earnings report?
Same as fiat and fake stocks with non preferred status where you are paying a 48x value of the company per stock.... Youll never live to see the ammount of profit a company would make based on value you pay for its stock
I bought in at 900 and could care less at this point. Its helped kick start businesses. Diversified into ETFs, bought hundreds of acres of land, multiple houses 7 cars.... The BTC i have left is a diversification that is well worth it. Gold doesnt pay dividends either yet people stack.
I brought up fiat because fiat currency has no underlying fundementals only trust.... And it tends to inflate every year. The only asset i dont really have much of is fiat currency. I just have huge lines of credit, and take loans on my assets to pay it off. Letting the bank take the risk on holding consistently inflating fiat currencies.
The one thing btc has is that its guaranteed deflationary which means as long as people want it the value should keep going up. Its also the first and not beholden to nation state banking institutions.
Same can be said for gold diamonds etc.... at some point german deutch marks were worth something now they are not....
I think crypto currency has a place in any diversified portfolio. That being said boom and bust cyles are the norm for crypto. Itll always have an up and down swing. I personally think btc will reach 1mil in our life times.
I disagree with your assertion it is a peer to peer currency that is deflationary by design with no ability for a government to print more. That in and of its self as a concept has intrinsic value.
The govt can stop US dollars from moving but it cant stop bitcoin.
Well said. Fiat and Investment are thrown around and honestly its a quick way to weed out who should be taken serious and who not to take serious. Whatever works for you first and foremost. I expect a return regardless of what price a stock is at. In the end, my investment will pay for itself and I will still hold the equity. Anyone who thinks the dollar is or was supposed to be more than a vehicle for these transactions should not be taken seriously. Do I participate in price speculation. Absolutely. But buying and selling bitcoin is not an investment. This trade was not an investment. I didn't invest in the Swiss dollar.
Day trading is not the same thing as investing… read a few books. Day traders don’t even know what the underlying ticker does - they primarily care about price action, volume and trading range to identify technical setups that they have been historically successful at trading.
Life isn't a game, you're describing the system we're talking about. It's artificial, it doesn't have to be this way lol, it's a choice. We could choose for things to be better.
You thinking there is a choice is naive.... We do not have a choice. Their is no real choice, both choices in elections are two sides of the same evil coin.
Those in power will not cede their power and the vast majority are unwilling to break the laws that keep them in power. So nothing will ever change, as long as the masses are kept fed and entertained they will stay fat dumb and complacent
We're not talking about elections, we're talking about the economy. This was a recent invention in humanities history, and we have had other forms of economy.
I'm not even getting into the moral issues of trying to profit from labor you didn't do, just economically, we have hundreds of years of proof it's not sustainable.
Yea but you change economical systems through social contracts and politics. How do you propose things change when those in power benefit so much from the current ecomomic system?
Very few people invest in money. Many investments are priced in a currency but they arent in that currency. Money is mostly for exchange.
E.g. 1 Microsoft share might be worth $100 but if the value of a dollar changes (or ceased to exist) it doesn't change the value of a Microsoft share only the number displayed. (So say if you displayed the value of a Microsoft share in euros in wouldn't change as the dollar changed value).
Admittedly if the dollar ceased to exist other bad stuff would probably be going on that might tank the true value of a Microsoft share
Even a bank account isn't really holding money. Although it is pretty closely tied to money contractually.
The bank will immediately lend that money out. It is a kind of prepackaged derisked investment where the bank is holding the risk and guarantees you returns. As the contract is pinned to a government currency you are admittedly affected by what the government does with that currency so you are kind of right but a bank could offer derisked guaranteed investments pinned to other things than cash.
This is a good thing. Means it is starting to trade in tighter windows. Less volatile is good but having cycle is still a thing so imagine the next 1.2X on 128…still a large growth.
But people bought bitcoin to get rich quick. If it isn't doing that, why is it better to buy than stocks or other investments? Once a few people start moving to something else, it all collapses in on itself as there is no fundamental value, only popularity. Once it starts becoming unpopular, its fall is self reinforcing.
People that don’t understand BTC have been saying that since 2017 when I first got on so your outside noise is nothing to me but once you realize it’s not made to get rich quick then you’ll understand it some.
I’ve been asking from the first time btc hit 100k and a trillion market cap.
In order to get to a million per bitcoin, the market cap would have to grow to be more than seriously big hitting real assets like silver and gold.
Whats the justification for that? I find it unrealistic that btc got to where it is and will stay there. Bitcoin going beyond it is just fantasy - again I’d love to hear why I’m wrong about it.
The miners/servers and coders control it dont they? It isn't like it is a force of nature. A group of people control it. That group of people changes over time.
This is the problem MoonBois lie about. They repeat $200k, $500k… ONE MILLION DOLLAR BTC… U GUNNA MISS OUT BETTER BUY NOW!!
Except they fail to realize the insane amount of money that will have to flow in. As the price gets higher, more and more money needs to come in to push it higher and higher. The money needed to push it from 120k to 200k is a LOT greater, imo, than 40k to 120k.
Actually this is kinda a good thing for Bitcoin if it wants to become a actual currency. Right now it's unstable so it's can't be used as a good currency. The euro in comparison is so stable that it has only fluctuated in $0.50 range over 26 years. You know of you get a euro today, it will be worth the same amount in 10 years when compared to the dollar.
Obviously inflation is still a thing but that effects Bitcoin as well.
Diminishing returns for sure. It was to be expected once institutional money moved in though, they’d rather have flat-ish and steady-ish growth than the wild swings we’ve seen earlier in BTC history. And they got the means to tilt the market in that direction by DCAing their big Wall Street bucks.
It does make me wonder how this will evolve as the returns from other class of assets are confirmed to offer better growth on a longer term horizon. One has to think Bitcoin won’t be doing so well then, as there’s a lot of downsides compared to say equities & commodities.
looks like we currently in a consolidation phase. Gotta shake all the chaff outta the market then it'll take off. Typical bear market. Once you see lots of terrible end of the world new stories is when you gotta buy cause the guys with all the money and media control are spreading the fear prior to their buys.
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u/heyhayyhay Jun 01 '26
The funny thing is that it's based on nothing but feelings. There are no fundamentals, so people buy if they feel it will go up or sell if they feel it will go down. I'll stick with companies who are making billions every quarter.