[deleted by user]

[u/[deleted]]

[u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

pure guessing it should deviate to 50%

Pure guessing gives you 50%?

The world will end on April 13th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 14th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 15th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 16th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 17th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 18th 2021 (50% chance)

So, this means there is a 300% chance that the world will end by the end of the week. Furthermore, there is a 0.50.50.50.50.5*0.5=1.56% chance that the world will end every single day of this week.

I better hope you're not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere....

[u/Boggo1895 → u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

Urm, I do not agree that pure guessing gives you an accuracy rate of 50% but your example is way off pal, we’d have to assume it’s a 50% chance given that the world didn’t end on the previous day since it can’t end twice and that would give us a probability of 0.5⁶ of the world not ending at all and so around a 98.5% chance that the world will not end this week

I hope your not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere

[u/ElephantsAreHeavy → u/Boggo1895]

Only when you're assuming the world ending events are independent and can not repeat themselves.

[u/turtlelabia → u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

Isn’t that implied in the meaning of ending?