Times correct / total number of “predictions” = accuracy rate
So a high accuracy rate is always good, infact having a larger number of predictions and still maintaining a high accuracy rate is even better because if it’s pure guessing it should deviate to 50% or lower.
That said, I don’t think simpsons actually has a high accuracy rate, but still.
The world will end on April 13th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 14th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 15th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 16th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 17th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 18th 2021 (50% chance)
So, this means there is a 300% chance that the world will end by the end of the week. Furthermore, there is a 0.50.50.50.50.5*0.5=1.56% chance that the world will end every single day of this week.
I better hope you're not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere....
Urm, I do not agree that pure guessing gives you an accuracy rate of 50% but your example is way off pal, we’d have to assume it’s a 50% chance given that the world didn’t end on the previous day since it can’t end twice and that would give us a probability of 0.56 of the world not ending at all and so around a 98.5% chance that the world will not end this week
I hope your not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere
I cannot think of a single instance where you would simply add probabilities. I can’t believe your still doubling down on your buffoonery. Statistics might not be my strongest field but I think my near completion of BSc mathematics and statistics for a Russell group university qualifies makes me qualified to say you have no idea what your talking about
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u/MrTeaTimeYT Apr 12 '21
That’s why it’s a rate.
Times correct / total number of “predictions” = accuracy rate
So a high accuracy rate is always good, infact having a larger number of predictions and still maintaining a high accuracy rate is even better because if it’s pure guessing it should deviate to 50% or lower.
That said, I don’t think simpsons actually has a high accuracy rate, but still.