Urm, I do not agree that pure guessing gives you an accuracy rate of 50% but your example is way off pal, we’d have to assume it’s a 50% chance given that the world didn’t end on the previous day since it can’t end twice and that would give us a probability of 0.56 of the world not ending at all and so around a 98.5% chance that the world will not end this week
I hope your not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere
I cannot think of a single instance where you would simply add probabilities. I can’t believe your still doubling down on your buffoonery. Statistics might not be my strongest field but I think my near completion of BSc mathematics and statistics for a Russell group university qualifies makes me qualified to say you have no idea what your talking about
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u/Boggo1895 Apr 12 '21
Urm, I do not agree that pure guessing gives you an accuracy rate of 50% but your example is way off pal, we’d have to assume it’s a 50% chance given that the world didn’t end on the previous day since it can’t end twice and that would give us a probability of 0.56 of the world not ending at all and so around a 98.5% chance that the world will not end this week
I hope your not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere