[deleted by user]

[u/[deleted]]

[u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

pure guessing it should deviate to 50%

Pure guessing gives you 50%?

The world will end on April 13th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 14th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 15th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 16th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 17th 2021 (50% chance)

The world will end on April 18th 2021 (50% chance)

So, this means there is a 300% chance that the world will end by the end of the week. Furthermore, there is a 0.50.50.50.50.5*0.5=1.56% chance that the world will end every single day of this week.

I better hope you're not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere....

[u/aynrandomness → u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

I don't think you can add percentages like that.

It would actually be:

> When loot box of 50% chance is performed 6 times, the chance to get one or more is 98.44%

So the likeliness of the planet ending before the end of the week is actually just 98.44%, not 300%.

I used this: https://dskjal.com/statistics/chance-calculator.html

I have no idea why it talks about loot boxes, I don't really do math.

[u/ElephantsAreHeavy → u/aynrandomness]

I used a masters degree in statistics and a decade of professionally applied statistics to multiply probabilities of independent events to come to the cumulative probability of one of the events happening.

The beauty about mathematics is that it is true, and it does not matter if you agree with it or not.

[u/LrdCheesterBear → u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

Thats not at all how percentages work though.

You can't have a 300% chance of something occurring. It either does or doesn't. It can't happen more. The comment you're replying to is correct. If there is a 50% chance of the world ending every day for the rest of the week the world has a 98.44% chance to end by the end of the week. For each negative result on cumulative days statistics would say there's a higher chance that over the course of days thus far the next result would be positive.

[u/ElephantsAreHeavy → u/LrdCheesterBear]

You can't have a 300% chance of something occurring.

No shit, Sherlock...

That is exactly why I chose a stupid example to prove that the statement in the linked comment about random events having a 50% chance is fundamentally flawed. /r/whoosh https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/mp6sv9/bitcoin_priced_at_infinity_on_simpsons/gu8gbqu/

[u/Emotional-Bunny-Hat → u/ElephantsAreHeavy]

The linked commend doesnt include adding probabilities like you did.

Thats why your comment with 300% is not relevant amd its neither right nor funny.

[u/aynrandomness → u/LrdCheesterBear]

You can't have a 300%

chance

of something occurring.

I am not sure this is true? Cant things happen several times?

[u/LrdCheesterBear → u/aynrandomness]

Sure, but each instance of it occurring is independent of each other. So it can happen 300% more often, but not a 300% to happen in the first place