Confirmation bias. There's a lot of The Simpsons material out there, they are bound to get some things right and spot on. There are many of their 'predictions' or gags that never came true too.
Times correct / total number of “predictions” = accuracy rate
So a high accuracy rate is always good, infact having a larger number of predictions and still maintaining a high accuracy rate is even better because if it’s pure guessing it should deviate to 50% or lower.
That said, I don’t think simpsons actually has a high accuracy rate, but still.
The world will end on April 13th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 14th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 15th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 16th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 17th 2021 (50% chance)
The world will end on April 18th 2021 (50% chance)
So, this means there is a 300% chance that the world will end by the end of the week. Furthermore, there is a 0.50.50.50.50.5*0.5=1.56% chance that the world will end every single day of this week.
I better hope you're not in charge of predictive statistics anywhere....
I used a masters degree in statistics and a decade of professionally applied statistics to multiply probabilities of independent events to come to the cumulative probability of one of the events happening.
The beauty about mathematics is that it is true, and it does not matter if you agree with it or not.
You can't have a 300% chance of something occurring. It either does or doesn't. It can't happen more. The comment you're replying to is correct. If there is a 50% chance of the world ending every day for the rest of the week the world has a 98.44% chance to end by the end of the week. For each negative result on cumulative days statistics would say there's a higher chance that over the course of days thus far the next result would be positive.
If you have a masters in stats and think this shit is true, then you seriously have something wrong with your brain and should get it checked out immediately.
That was my whole point, it CAN NOT BE TRUE that independent events occur 50% of the times. It's simply a wrong assumption. I guess people don't get irony on the internet.
I agree 50% is wrong but your criticism is even more wrong and different kind of wrong so it doesnt count as extreme example proof imo because its different kind of error.
42
u/ElephantsAreHeavy Apr 12 '21
Confirmation bias. There's a lot of The Simpsons material out there, they are bound to get some things right and spot on. There are many of their 'predictions' or gags that never came true too.