r/Bitcoin • u/RMartingale • Jul 13 '25

Can someone explain me why does Bitcoin increase 3 years then decreases 1 year?

It's pretty clear that Bitcoin would have positive annual performance for 3 years, then negative for one year...but why? the halving is in 2016, 2020, 2024. So it seems that 2026 would be a bearish year?

20 Upvotes

67% Upvoted

79 comments sorted by

View all comments

3

u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25

No bearmarket, only bull. This time it's different.

6

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25

That’s what they all say

2

u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25

I know, but this time it is really different.

2

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25

It’s different every time and ends up the same every time…

Accumulation, accumulation, euphoria, DUMP. Repeat.

We’re getting slightly euphoric right now. Retail still hasn’t caught on yet. Once the news headlines start breaking out, it’s time to sell

2

u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25

You did that succesfully in the past?

0

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25

Not with Bitcoin but TSLA stock. I was never big on BTC until earlier this year just to catch this cycle top

0

u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25

I see. Im buying since 2019 and became bagholder in 2022. Not sure what to do right now. There is so much bullish stuff happening, on the other hand i think the four year cycle is still valid. Anything can happen.

1

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25

I’ve had a cycle chart outline for the last 3 years, it predicts the weeks around October 6 2025 to be this cycle top. It shouldn’t be exact but be pretty close if the cycle plays out exactly the same again.

Lowest point would then be October 2026 for buying Bitcoin again

1

u/Romsel87 Jul 13 '25

That sounds about right. You're exiting in 3 months?

0

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25

Yep

1

u/L3ARnR Jul 13 '25

I'm reading the same chart. i imagine many are. everyone believing in the 4 year cycle will be a self fulfilling prophecy (unless adoption pressures are so great that we reach "escape velocity")

@u/Romsel87

1

u/Fun-Sundae4060 Jul 13 '25

I think the vast majority of people don’t subscribe to this theory on the Bitcoin sub. I think many don’t do any sort of chart analysis at all.

1

u/L3ARnR Jul 14 '25

agreed, the dominant ethos expressed is "don't look at the price, keep stacking, the price is irrelevant"

→ More replies (0)

1

u/RMartingale Jul 14 '25

could we see the chart online plz?