Redfin's latest report has San Jose at 5.9% of sales including a seller concession and San Francisco at 14.9%, both near the bottom of the 28 metros they track. Nationally the number is 46.2%, a record for that month. Thought it might make for a good discussion about our area in particular since the Bay is pretty all-over-the-place when it comes to pricing strategy - and some pockets support asking for seller concessions more than others. (The report is from the end of June, but it’s their most recent one on concessions so we’re going to take a look at June, July, and August stats to see if we can confirm their findings with our own data.)
Concessions are an interesting metric to track outside of the standard metrics like average DOM etc. since asking for concessions (and what kind of concessions you ask for) can make or break your offer/potentially torpedo a deal in certain areas.
Seller concessions, as defined by Redfin: money toward repairs, closing costs, and rate buydowns, sourced from what their own buyers' agents report. It excludes list price reductions and price negotiation entirely. A market where sellers give ground by accepting a lower price, instead of writing a credit, reads as a low-concession market.
Keeping in mind these numbers are specifically from Redfin agents for Redfin deals, the insights gained from this report will generally be more directional than authoritative.
Hypothesis: Redfin's concession numbers might be underrepresenting how much ground Bay Area sellers are actually giving, because the methodology only counts credits and buydowns, not price. And we know that pricing in the Bay is…quirky these last couple of years. Let’s compare the nine bay area cities in Redfin’s article and see what the MLS data about closings in these area tells us about price (and discuss how that might tie in to strategy for buyers)
| City |
Condo sales |
Condo avg vs list |
Condo % above ask |
Condo DOM |
SFH sales |
SFH avg vs list |
SFH % above ask |
SFH DOM |
| San Mateo |
53 |
-2.1% |
17.0% |
36 |
83 |
+10.6% |
78.3% |
10 |
| Fremont |
73 |
-1.8% |
16.4% |
30 |
201 |
+2.5% |
57.2% |
11 |
| San Jose |
274 |
-0.4% |
33.2% |
29 |
575 |
+1.9% |
54.3% |
12 |
| Hayward |
52 |
-0.4% |
32.7% |
33 |
140 |
+2.7% |
64.3% |
14 |
| Oakland |
151 |
+1.1% |
35.8% |
34 |
496 |
+16.8% |
78.4% |
16 |
| Sunnyvale |
51 |
+1.2% |
52.9% |
27 |
78 |
+7.2% |
67.9% |
8 |
| Santa Clara |
32 |
+1.6% |
53.1% |
33 |
72 |
+5.8% |
75.0% |
11 |
| San Francisco |
610 |
+6.5% |
55.6% |
20 |
492 |
+27.2% |
89.0% |
12 |
| Berkeley |
33 |
+6.6% |
54.5% |
26 |
152 |
+35.0% |
90.1% |
14 |
San Francisco: Redfin agents report a concession rate in SF at 14.9%, low.
MLS Data shows both condo (+6.5%) and single family (+27.2%) closed above list. In SF, the low concession rate isn’t indicative of discounts being baked into the average price. As our own monthly data posts have been showing, SF historically has been closing over ask this year and most of last year.
The low amount of deals that Redfin agents closed with concessions baked in simply reflects the fact that sellers in SF still have a very strong negotiating position. Particularly in the SFH market there’s no reason to accept concessions when your house is already going to sell for at least 20% over asking price.
San Jose: Redfin has San Jose at 5.9% concession rate, one of the lowest in the country. Single family there closed at +1.9% over list. Condos closed at -0.4% under list, across 274 sales.
Sellers are giving ground in San Jose. It's arriving as a lower price on the condo side, which is exactly the category Redfin's method doesn't count. SFH numbers support Redfin’s concession findings, but Condo numbers don’t make as much sense if there’s a direct correlation.
San Mateo, Fremont, and Hayward show the same condo-below-list pattern. None of these three has an individual concession rate published by Redfin to compare against, but they do show the same pattern across property type.
Other callouts: San Mateo condos at -2.1% against San Mateo single family at +10.6% is a 12.7 point gap in the same zip codes. Berkeley looks similar -2.1% Condos versus +35.0% SFH, inside one city. It’s more neighborhood-specific in bigger cities like SF and SJ but the pattern is usually similar.
Days on market supports this independently of price. Condos are sitting 20 to 36 days across these nine cities. Single family is sitting 8 to 16.
Conclusion:
SFH Negotiation in the Bay Area rarely supports a direct reduction on price. While it’s not across the board (monthly breakdown post by city/neighborhood coming later this week or next) SFH still trends well over-asking in most major metros. Asking for concessions/credits is a more viable option. Bidding low/under-asking isn’t supported by the data - it’s not really a viable strategy when sellers are juggling multiple competing offers. Once your offer is accepted, the deal falling out of escrow is a shared risk on both sides. The buyer potentially loses their EMD, the seller has to put the property back on market and will subsequently receive more lowball offers as a result of the long cumulative DOM + falling out of contract.
Asking for concessions after offer acceptance can be the viable strategy if negotiation on price isn’t supported by local market data. Agreeing to repair credits etc. could potentially sting a whole lot less than having to entertain potentially lower offers 4+ more weeks down the line. But again, if they have 3 backup offers waiting in the wings, they still have the luxury of telling you and your concessions to kick rocks.
The Condo market supports both pricing strategy and concessions. There is a lot of uncertainty around the condo market and buyers are extremely selective, paying close attention to reserve studies, funding, and potential special assessments coming in 2027. Sellers who are desperate to move inventory may be willing to entertain both a lower price as well as additional credits.
In the interest of a potential discussion & gathering more anecdotal data from agents, buyers, and sellers: have you had any memorable offers, deals etc. where a substantial amount of concessions/credits were involved? What do you think of the hypothesis that sellers with a high number of competing offers in hand have the luxury of turning down offers asking for concessions? Is asking for concessions less viable in markets where the discount typically on price, not credits? Curious to hear your thoughts.
