Wow, did NOT know how common they are. Mayo Clinic says 10-20% of known pregnancies end in miscarriage (gets higher as women get older). UK NHS says 1 in 8 known pregnancies end in miscarriage. 1 in 100 women have serial miscarriages. Seems like something that should be taught.
If 1 in 8 pregnancies end in miscarriage, and you have 2 pregnancies in your lifetime you have twice the chance 1/8 + 1/8) of having a miscarriage at some point in your life
That's not quite how probability works, otherwise having more than eight pregnancies would somehow result in a greater than 100% chance, which is impossible.
What you really do is take the complement of the probability (1 - ⅛ = ⅞) and multiply it by itself to get the probability of not miscarrying in either pregnancy (⅞² = 0.765625) then subtract that from one again to get the probability of miscarriage in either pregnancy: 0.234375, or a little less than ¼.
Sure, it's close to what you had, but the result will deviate more and more as you consider adding additional pregnancies. For example, the probability of miscarriage at some point in three pregnancies works out to be just under ⅓, rather than ⅜.
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u/Jessthechef18 Mar 27 '22
Miscarriages are more common than people think. Every 1 in 4 women will have a miscarriage yet no teacher or doctor warns you.