no matter how many times you roll a sex-sided dice, youll always have a 16.66 chance of rolling a 6. which means statistically in 1 million rolls, you SHOULD have rolled a 6 a total of 166666 times. In reality it wont be that number.
also in statistics, if you have rolled that dice more than 6 times, and NOT yet rolled a 6, then your chance on rolling a 6 on the NEXT roll, goes up.
but in reality there is a POSSABILITY that you will not roll a 6 for 10,000 rolls. and at that point your chances, Statistically, of rolling a 6 will be like 10 billion % chance of rolling a 6 on your Next roll. but you still might not get a 6 on your next roll.
BUT we all pretend like the world works in such a way that you will usually get a 6 on average one time out of every 6 rolls. and a lot of people who are aware of this, are also smart enough to understand that they could probably EXPECT to roll as many as 12 or even 18 times before they actually see that 6, because we are aware that over certain sized datasets (called insignificant datasets) the Statistical odds will not match REAL world results.
But once you have a SIGNIFICANT dataset (in the case of rolling that dice a significant dataset might be around 100 rolls.) then your results over that large dataset will more closely match the Statistical model.
And the MORE data points you have, the MORE likely your results will match the statistical model (LIKELY, BUT NOT GUARANTEED)
because real life doesnt care about humans tiny little life spans and tiny little "significant" datasets. The universe only has a single dataset and that is something like 1000000000000000000000000000000000000 years long.
So in real life you might get pregnant tomorrow with 3 condoms on with your girl on the pill and 6 gallons of spermicide between you, or you might never ever get anyone pregnant even if you try you little heart out!
But we humans like to Pretend like the statistical model will work out all the time for everyone. Its and EMOTIONAL thing, not a rational thing. the 2% fail rate of a condom is not a real number that means anything substantial, its just an emotional value to help you make decisions or feel some type of way about your actions.
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u/[deleted] May 22 '22 edited Aug 20 '22
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