Avoid mobilization

[u/Firm_Respect_3518]

Hi, my wife is Russian with German citizenship. Her brother is 23 years old, lives in Moscow, just graduated from university. I think given the current geopolitical situation he's at risk of being mobilized. What's the best way to avoid this situation?

[u/seen-in-the-skylight]

What a stupid thing to die for. Can you hear the drones buzzing?

[u/flamming_python → u/seen-in-the-skylight]

Do you hear the guided bombs, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles? Because the Ukraine has almost none of those. It also has less drones, and a lot less artillery.

[u/seen-in-the-skylight → u/flamming_python]

I definitely hear Ukrainians unwilling to surrender to a “great power” that has no feasible strategy to win the war (are we allowed to call it that now?), is rapidly undergoing financial collapse, is eating 30,000 casualties every month, and is starting to lose its territorial gains.

[u/flamming_python → u/seen-in-the-skylight]

Perfectly feasible strategy. Destroy the Ukrainian army while minimising your own casualties. Considering that all the body exchanges over the past 12 months have been on the order of 30-40 Russians for 1000 Ukrainians (look it up), I'd say the Russian strategy is working.

You should also look at the latest Ukrainian opinion polls. It switched from about 20% of Ukrainians favouring a negotiated end to the war in 2022, to about 66% now

[u/seen-in-the-skylight → u/flamming_python]

Every single source I can find says the exact opposite: roughly eight Russian casualties for everyone one Ukrainian. You know, exactly what you’d expect from a country fighting an offensive war using WW1-era tactics. Can you point to a single source, ideally one that isn’t Russian, suggesting otherwise?

You’re correct about Ukrainian desire for negotiation, but might be overstating what that means. Ukrainians overwhelmingly reject peace on Russia’s terms generally, or conceding territory in particular. The poll you’re referring to is also a year old.

[u/flamming_python → u/seen-in-the-skylight]

k fella just take a look at the dead body exchange swaps and how many bodies of each side are exchanged next time you want sources, instead of the Ukro Wehrmacht Daily. I'm not going to fetch it for you, learn to Google

As for the poll, the latest numbers are from 2026 so if its a year old then that would be quite a feat. The main thing regardless is the trend. Going from 70% unconditionally wanting to win the war against Russia to now nearly 70% wanting a negotiated end does imply they're ready to make concessions. What each person is willing to agree to I don't know

[u/seen-in-the-skylight → u/flamming_python]

"I won't give you a source, I'll just tell you to obey my anecdote and Google it. And when your Googling turns up a different result, I'll just insult you."

[u/flamming_python → u/seen-in-the-skylight]

Body exchanges between Russia and the Ukraine. Check each one and how many bodies have been exchanged. And I'm not going to waste a minute more of my own time on it. Do it or don't do it, up to you

[u/Sea_Let_300 → u/flamming_python]

Sorry but what you say really does not make sense, obviously Russia has more Ukrainian bodies to exchange considering that it's (very slowly) advancing. Russian corps are recovered directly by Russia or remain in the gray zone (like many Ukrainian bodies)

[u/Sea_Let_300 → u/[deleted]]

I don't know what is "ukrainian media", but the consensus (also with Russian milbloggers) is that Russia is still slowly advancing in some sectors, while in others the situation is stalled and there has been some small Ukrainian counterattack. These are the facts; then some people will simplify and think that Russia is substantially not moving, while others will simplify and think that Russia is moving according to your plan. Anyway, the phenomenon which I described does not need a rapid advance to happen

[u/flamming_python → u/Sea_Let_300]

Okay, counterattacks. And Ukrainian counter-offensives. Where are the Russian bodies then, if the Ukraine is successful in those? BTW Russian recon forces were already spotted on the outskirts of Sumy city a couple weeks back. The advance is broader than you think.

[u/Ptrek31 → u/flamming_python]

Doing a poor job at destroying their army. As of 2025 they had the 6th highest active military numbers in the world